Homesick

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I want to go home.

For two months and counting we’ve been in this strange vacation in a not very comfortable place.  That’s fine. I’ve gone on vacation to places where life isn’t every easy even if you have plenty of money. That’s okay. BUT not forever.

I miss my country where I don’t have to worry about going to the grocery store and finding it stripped of basic items. Where I don’t have to worry about whether or not there will be meat this fall. Or enough to feed my family, no matter how much money we make.

I miss my country where morality police don’t stand around making sure the right body parts are always covered and can’t scold you and shame you for not following the irrational precepts of their religion.

I miss my country, where no petty bureaucrat or (probably crookedly) elected politician can tell me I can’t work, I can’t shop, I can’t live my life as it very well pleases me.

I miss my country where cancer screenings, heart surgery and other blessings of modern medicine aren’t “non-essential” and can be withheld at the mercy of some bureaucrat whose increasingly more insane commands are completely divorced from scientific reality, but he wants to make sure you jump when he says “frog” before he lets you have a little more of your life back.

I want to go home where my fellow citizens had stopped believing anything the MSM said, the same MSM they now believe with gaping jaws and credulous eyes.

I’m tired of this. This country is much like every country in the world.

And I know — none better — what you’ll say about my complaints. It’s the same thing Americans have been told by Europeans (and never mind Africans or Asians)  for decades “You’re soft” “You’re pampered” “You’re not willing to forego your comfort for the greater good.”

Well, damn right I’m not.

You see, in this weird nightmare country, as in the rest of the world, the self-proclaimed “elite” don’t have to endure any of these things. Nor do they. They don’t wear masks while shopping and risk asthma attacks or asphyxia. They don’t postpone their medical procedures. Hell, they don’t postpone their haircuts, their trysts, their travel. Because they’re the ones who dictate, not the ones who are dictated to.

In my visit to France, I found myself in a first class carriage from Nice to Paris, which yes, costs a lot, and where we were put in a compartment where the air conditioning was broken. Six hours, in blazing sun. The windows didn’t open, and the temperature rapidly climbed to the hundreds. A thing for which the remedy was to hand out bottles of water.

Our protests were met with “yeah, it’s been broken for a while, but we haven’t got around to fixing it. No, there are no other seats.”

Finally, in desperation, husband and I looked at each other and went one to each end of the carriage and held the doors open, so the temperature wasn’t in killing range.

Later on at the airport, where they singled me out for interviewing (no, I have no idea why) the gentleman interviewing me asked how I’d enjoyed the ride and I told him. He said it had been broken for years, and he was always afraid of being put in that carriage, and “I wish you’d write to them. They might listen to tourists more.”

This is France a thoroughly western, first-world country, but they endure this type of sh*t as thought they were peasants beholden to feudal Lords, from whom all goodness comes.

Look, I’d endure this crap if there were any expectation of its being temporary. A vacation is a vacation.  I’d endure it if it served some purpose.  If we were in a real war, and it were necessary to save our paper or whatever, in order to fuel the war effort, sure.

But this “Battle against Winnie the Flu” is basically just for show. None of it makes sense.  You’re magically protected if you wear a mask which doesn’t really stop anything but droplets.  (Don’t get close enough to strangers to be sneezed on.  It’s not that far. Also most people cover their mouths.)  The outside is magically dangerous (despite the virus not surviving sunlight) and therefore you’re “safer at home.”  It’s very, very dangerous to go to a hobby store, but a crowded grocery store is magically safe.

Yes, I know we’re being propagandized by the MSM, and that people who believe it are acting like sheep, but dear Lord, at which point do they realize there are no bodies piled on the streets and that what they’re being told is a load of mumbo jumbo?

Is it going to take years, as it did for the climate hysteria to be discredited?

Because I don’t know if I can tolerate this bizarre vacation for years.

The whole point of the US is that the individual, the common as dirt, foot in the muck working person is as worthy of respect and comfort as those in administrative capacities.

The point of the US is that there are no commoners, there are no elites. We’re all Americans, from whose consent the government derives their authority.

I don’t remember consenting to have my civil rights stripped away. Did you?

I did not consent to being the same as the rest of the world and having to submit to irrational dictates. Did you?

They say we can’t go home again.  That this is the “new normal”and we have to get used to it.

I say they’re full of shit.

I want to go home. There is no other place in the world like my home, and I did not consent to have it destroyed in the name of fighting what amounts to a perhaps slightly more lethal cold virus.

I say we need to push the morality police’s nose in.

Olly olly oxen free.  Be not afraid.

Build under, build over, build around.

Ignore the busies are their irrational orders.  We’re Americans, and we don’t consent to being ordered around like cattle.

Talk some spine into the fainting violets.  And show them by example too.

Keep the candle burning in the window.  Let us get back home.

Unlocking

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Olly Olly, Oxen Free. It’s time to get back to life.

Yesterday I came across a stupid — well, it is — post about how the economy unlocked, but people still aren’t going out.

I also keep seeing how Colorado is just like Georgia, so why aren’t democrats mad at Colorado’s Polis for unlocking?

Well, mostly because he hasn’t.  The big difference here, apparently, is that some “non essential” businesses are now open for pick up. There are some that aren’t opening at all, because what is the point? Take clothing, for instance. Sure. I can shop for pick up. If I’m buying t-shirts or jeans. I know the brands that fit me, and the size.  BUT that’s about it. And I’m not in need of jeans right now.

The museums and zoo and botanic gardens remain closed, as do — officially — parks. This even though NOT ONLY can’t you really catch a virus (well, you can, freaky stuff happens all the time) outside in moving air, but UV seems to kill it. But hey, our governor, who has the scientific education of a slug thinks that you’re safer at home. Which in turn means he’s doing everything possible to disincentivize your going out. He’s already said, for instance, that he’ll only consider the next phase of unlocking if everyone wears a mask all the time: so for the first time in this insanity, I’m seeing people jogging or walking in splendid isolation, wearing masks.

And because I find that submission vile and despicable — because there’s no sane reason to wear a mask while alone, and the cloth masks are only useful to prevent YOU sneezing on people. Since I’m not sneezing — my allergies always manifest more in a tight chest and stuffy nose — I’m perfectly safe around others.

But I’ve been staying in more. I don’t want to deal with Karens screaming about masks, and I am afraid of getting to the grocery store and being told I can’t go in without a mask. So I stay put.

The point is: THIS ISN’T UNLOCKING.

Unlocking and getting back to life is just that.  And I’d respect the hell out of a politician who had the nerve to do it. He doesn’t seem to exist. But just the nerve to say “You know, this was a massive over reaction, America. You’re not at any risk. Turn off CNN and get back to work.”

Because the idea that we need to open gradually is insane.  We’re well past flattening any potential curve. WHY are governors still deciding what opens and when?
Why are the elected jackasses, who have no clue what people do for a living, or where money comes from, telling us who gets to earn a living?

AND why are they trusting “experts” who haven’t worked a real job outside of politics in years?

WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE? And what right do they have to choose who gets to work and who gets to eat?

What part of the bill of rights is written in disappearing ink?  What part of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness is written in Martian? WHAT are they failing to get?

It’s time to set yourselves free. Not one here, one there. Just…. set yourself free.
Demonstrations?  Sure. Wouldn’t hurt.
BUT it is important to go out and do things. Even if you’re not very sure what to do. Even if you don’t NEED to do something right away.  We don’t need to go out.

But I’m tired of the bait and switch. I’m tired of their pretending they opened up and it’s us who arent’ interested in being out.

Safer at home?  No, governor Polis. Either scientifically, mentally or politically, none of us safer at home.  Like the ridiculous saying on our highway signs “stay home. Save a life” it’s not just not true that we’re safer at home, it’s contrary to the truth.

The business of America is business.  The business of humanity if interaction.

Sure, we can hide under our beds till we die of starvation, and totally avoid Winnie the Flu. BUT then who will grow the food you eat?

From today on I’m going out every day, even if all I do is buy a pack of gum at the convenience store.

Because it’s time we got out of the house and went back to work and fun and normal. Not the new normal. JUST NORMAl.

Come out, come out, wherever you are.

The end of the world has been grossly exaggerated. It looks uncommonly like the common cold. The experts were wrong again, and the authoritarians are seeking to take advantage again.

It’s time to ignore them and get back to life.

You Ain’t Seen Nothing Like Us Yet A Blast From the Past, October 2013

*It is important in times of trouble to remember who we are and what it means. To remember that the world ain’t seen nothing like us yet, and though this might destroy many nations, it won’t destroy us. At least not if we — the few, the Odd, the USAians — work like hell at it.
On another note, sorry the post is so late. Allergies have been playing havoc with me, not improved by the fact that I’m spending a lot of time outside and around plants. So I took benadryl, which knocks me out cold.  Also, whoever sent me a post and I never answered, please send again. I’ve now lost TWO of them I know I received.My email does something that hides them, I swear. So, have pity on the ditsy writer and send again? -SAH*

You Ain’t Seen Nothing Like Us Yet A Blast From the Past, October 2013

You Ain’t Seen Nothing Like Us Yet A Blast From the Past, October 2013

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It is a truism from psychology classes that you can’t stand at the window and watch yourself go by.  You also can’t grow up in a country and see it as outsiders see it.  And outsiders can’t see it as insiders see it.

If you ever see me standing somewhere and shaking my head and saying “Americans!” it’s not that I suddenly see myself as separate from you.  Or rather, it is, but it’s more that I see myself separate from and part of, which means I don’t fit anywhere.  The part of me that feels separate from the rest of you, though, is the girl who grew up overseas with an idea of America that you don’t see and probably can’t share.  The part that then came here, and adapted her notions, and figured out how you guys see yourselves.

In metaphorical terms, I’m the American that stands at the window and watches America go by. The caveat is that I grew up in a very particular time and place, and though I did see a lot of Europe and had a lot of European and anglosphere friends, I know next to nothing about Asia (though I had Japanese friends too.)  Still as far as I know though we share one or two traits with other nations, we’re the only ones who have all of them.

And I don’t mean some individuals in other nations don’t have these traits, or that some here don’t lack them (boy, I could tell you!) but that in general our culture has these traits and theirs doesn’t.  And that makes all the difference.

So I thought I’d hold the mirror up to you, because you guys keep trying to fit yourselves into roles that just aren’t there. “We’re Rome!”  or “We’re Carthage” or even “We’re the British Empire!”  (Which – Francis is right – is the closest and yet not a perfect fit.  In nation terms, the British take their laws as seriously as we do, but they’re more flexible.  In schoolroom terms, the British might be “in the spectrum” but they’re not full on Aspergers.)

No, we’re none of those.  By the Grace of G-d or the amazing concatenation of chance and self-selection, we’re something quite new in the history of the world.  And if there was something like us before – pre-history perhaps? – it is long since vanished from memory.

I’m going to list in no particular order the things that still strike the me-that-grew-up-elsewhere as amazing and wonderful about our country.  And yet I’m sure I’ll forget a dozen or so of them.  Maybe perhaps just enough of this will explain my view that while I think collapse is inevitable, I don’t think we can predict how it will turn out or what comes next.  The future is unwritten and being the special nation we are, it’s up to us to write it.

[BTW, I’m too lazy to look for it right now, but there’s a Facebook meme that encapsulates what I am: I’m an Apocaliptimist.  I believe everything is going to sh*t but I still think we’ll be all right through it all and it might turn out for the best. (The difference between me and the Libertarians who, like communists, expect their system to emerge spontaneously from the chaos, is that I think we’ll need to work like heck through the dark times to make sure we’re all right at the end.)]

So, here it is what I see when I stand at the window and watch America go by:

-We’re playful.  No, I don’t mean just that we have a sense of humor.  That too – and I was fully appreciative of the British humor before I came here, but the British humor has a back bite and a bit of the dour irony that American humor might have or not – but that’s not all.  We’re playful even when not making an outright joke.  For instance, the first thing that hit me about the High School I attended in the States for 12th grade was that someone had labeled the corridors in hand lettered signs.  For instance, the math/computer area was labeled Nerd Alley.  And the teachers let it stay up.  And no one thought this hurt the dignity of the school/education.  In fact, I’m almost sure they had the school’s unofficial approval.

Then there’s the senior prank I took part in, where we kidnapped the secretary’s stuffed bulldog collection, and asked for $5 in unmarked pennies.  My counselor called me and very seriously counseled me to give up my accomplices and talked about my making this an international incident.

Right now you’re going “Standard kid stuff.”  And shaking your head and going “and?” – And nothing.  Those are perfectly normal pranks.

Yeah, they are, in the states.  Don’t even try to do it anywhere else.

-We spontaneously organize in clubs and associations.  I think we’re losing this now, because everyone is so infernally busy.  (But the structure is still there.  It would take more than a generation to erase.) It’s impossible to have a club in America – even our writers’ group – without rules that everyone takes very seriously indeed.  In other countries – maybe excepting England – this is reserved for associations that are “official” and “important.”  Here, if you form a club to give crumbs to ducklings in the park, within three months it will be run according  to Robert’s rules of order, (Which I’ve told the older kid should be the name of his blog) with motions and chairs and who knows what.

This is absolutely needed because

-We don’t take orders well.  Any of us, really.  When I came to the US I kept seeing this sign in every work place “The problem in this place is all chiefs no Indians.”  I suppose it is politically incorrect now, so you no longer see it.  BUT it baffled me.  It wasn’t just that these people were saying that their workplace was unorganized, or that they had issues taking orders, but that they were BRAGGING about it in posters and cross stitch pictures. … and that they were right.

Portugal is famously unorganized.  My kids have various colorful expressions for the way things are done in Portugal.  Let’s just say they’re convinced that most people drive with a part of their anatomy no one should use. But it’s different.  The average Portuguese recognizes his “betters” and assumes that someone else has the right to lead them.  They just exhibit a sullen “make me” attitude.  In the States, we just don’t see why anyone else should be in charge.  We don’t recognize social superiors, and we barely recognize technical superiors.  The forlorn cries for us to respect “the office” of this and that when we can’t respect the current *sshat are a measure of how little inclined we are to do that.  In other countries the President or the Premier or whatever is “Important” and you DO respect the office and it rubs off on the person, no matter how much you hate the current clown.

The flip side of this is that we’re all of us forever looking at what we can do.  (There are exceptions, of course.  I’m not talking individuals, I’m talking the American character as opposed to other nations.)  If you face a mess, you don’t sit around waiting for orders to fix it.  You don’t even wait for other people to “buy in.”  You roll up your sleeves and start fixing what you can reach.

This is why that sign in the seventies was a brag.  It was was “We’re all trying to do the best we can, and we’re so good at that we can barely coordinate with which other.”  There is no other country where I can visualize “An army of one” making sense.

-This “We fix it” thing is why Americans open their purses and their hearts to help the less fortunate, whether it’s the person with too many kittens to feed down the block, or the victims of the tsunami across the world, in numbers the rest of the world doesn’t even come close to matching.

It’s not just that we’re well off or generous.  Yeah, we’re that, but we also feel that it’s our duty, dang it.  We don’t wait for the organization or the go-varmint or someone else to do.  We’re an army of one, moving in our own uncoordinated way, and moving mountains without even noticing.

And that’s also because most of us at some time were in need and got help, and know better than to wait for officialdom.

I was never more proud than when science fiction forgot its petty inanities and closed ranks to help Dave Wolverton’s kid.  Because that’s what we do.  We’re Americans.  We fix, we help, we move on, and we don’t keep score of who helped whom, and who didn’t.  You need help we’re there, a mob with a purpose.

– We are flexible.  No, this is important.  We change, and the society allows us to change.  The sense of humor, the organization, the initiative, all of it adds up to us saying “just because I’ve always been like that, doesn’t mean I’ll be like that tomorrow.  And society doesn’t try to keep us in our appointed pigeon hole.

And this is probably why you can become an American.  Most other nationalities, while you can naturalize, you’ll never “really” be whatever they are.

Here?  Despite the idiots running around hyphenating themselves, you can be an American no matter how funny you look or how strange you sound.  (Trust me.  I know whence I speak.)

And people will be offended at the idea that you wouldn’t be able to become a real American.

Part of the unappreciated thing by all – PARTICULARLY progressives – is that for all its flaws America is the least racist, homophobic, sexist and any other discriminatory thing you can think of.  If you’re an American you are an American, no questions asked.  (And all the Americans who think otherwise only think so because they’ve only seen the rest of the world on their best behavior.  Listen to them in unguarded moments, in their native language, and the picture is quite different.  I wish we could get our oikophobic co-citizens to understand that they really shouldn’t take what people say of their own country at face value.  This is why they think we are the worst in the world – because we engage in self-critique, even more than the Europeans.)

-And this is why we have a positive craze for self-improvement.  This can get outright silly with New Age stuff and cleansing your aura, but it also means that most of us aspire to being life long learners, even those who aren’t.

Yes, in other countries people go for adult education or learning this or that, but it’s usually very focused, very serious.  Here, it’s not unusual to find that someone is taking some very serious subject on the side, in their spare time, just for fun.

For years I belonged to the History Book Club, where my royalty checks should just be made over every month.  (My husband said.)  I don’t now, because I can poke around Amazon till I find things.  But that sort of thing, the History Book Club and the Science Book Club, and the Mathematics Book Club, and heaven knows what flourishes in America more than anywhere else in the world.

I remember when my brother rather condescendingly told me about a book on Chinese History he’d just discovered and offered to send it to me “since you won’t have that in America.”  Ah.  I’d read it five years before, through the History Book Club.

This is why despite the fact that our secondary education (and primary too, for that matter) suck rotten eggs, we continue to have an educated populace.  It’s also why finding out someone “only” has a high school education means nothing.  My plumber is an expert on the civil war and its weapons.

In the same way that there are second acts in American lives, there are second and third and fourth careers, and a continuing education, and structures to support that, and the fact that no one finds it weird that a computer programmer is “really” a medieval sword expert and a weekend blacksmith.

This makes us uniquely adapted to this world of fast-changing technology, because none of us (okay, again, I’m talking the culture not individuals.  We won’t discuss Wisconsin teachers) regards a job as a sinecure or education as the hoops to jump through for the sinecure.  No, we regard jobs as things you do for a while, and learning as the way to get another/different job.

Which is good, because

– The future comes from America.  Yes, yes, I know Verne, Wells and all that “invented” science fiction, but the only nation in which it was popularized as a genre, and not an entertainment of intellectuals bent on social critique – the only place it could be so – is America.

Some countries – most countries – are shackled to the past, either in embrace or in denial, and sometimes in both.

Portugal is a tiny country trying to swim through time against the pull of the huge cement sack of history tied to its middle.  They can’t do this and that because it’s never been done, or they have to do this because they did that before.  I get the same sense about all the other countries I know well enough.

But not America.  Oh, no.  Not us.

Americans seem to have come here to make things better, and therefore, the future is always better than the past (Yes I realize this makes the glitterati not really American.  What you thought they were?)

Americans are mad in love with the future.  We’re adult enough to know sometimes there are (d*mnably) rough patches, but by and large “every day, in every way, we’re getting better and better.”  And just wait till we finish tinkering and cajoling and inventing tomorrow.

Come and give me a hand.  We’ll come out of this collapse thing better than ever, stronger than ever.  The future?  Man, is it going to be snazzy, and new, and completely unexpected.

Boy, are you going to love it!

You ain’t seen nothing like us yet!

Hitting the Wall

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Yesterday in a private group we were talking about how it’s people under forty, particularly women who are terrified of becoming ill and dying with Winnie the Flu.

This is an almost complete mismatch with those the virus is likely to actually kill, since I believe (haven’t looked recently, so it might be a few percentage points off but surely within the margin of error) something like 98% of all people who even have to be hospitalized — or show any symptoms beyond a mild cold — are over sixty and something like 80% are over 80.  And all of them — though there might be a freak case or two here and there, hard to tell because reporting and tallying of deaths has been such a mess, mostly due to the perverse incentive of federal money , who are under 20.  But freak cases happen with anything. People have died I’m sure of being pecked by a sparrow.  Life isn’t safe nor precise, and we’re not promised a certain amount of years on this Earth, and certainly not immortality, barring a new heaven and a new Earth.

However over the weekend more than one report reached me of people saying their friends/acquaintances in their 30s and 40s have just realized they or someone they love might die. (Of Winnie the Flu they think, which is fairly ridiculous unless their friends are over 80.)  This was explained with their not knowing anyone who had died, unless they were very old.  Which I suppose is possible, though strange, since in our own family, in the last ten years we’ve been buffeted by the death of friends and acquaintances ranging from their thirties to their fifties.  In fact younger son lost a beloved mentor of his first robotics team who cannot have been much over forty when son was in his first year of college.

Maybe most people live such halcyon lives?  Older son did report, back when he worked transport in hospitals while in high school that there were any number of people over 100 admitted.  I remember when 100 was cause to be on national news and get phone calls from politicians. But it’s apparently…. well, not common, but not abnormal. Kind of like 80 used to be when I was little. (I saw my first 80+ year old when I was 14.) And of course by the time you’re 100 your closest relatives are also very aged, and because of how spread out our society is, your grandchildren and great grandchildren might never have been very close to you.

So perhaps we are lacking memento mori. It used to be everywhere.  There is a post around here somewhere about how far we’ve come from death, by isolating it in hospitals or nursing homes, sanitizing it, making it something expected and not terrible.  It’s like our loved ones reach a certain point in time, and go on a long journey, and we won’t see them again.

Quite unlike sitting by the bed, waiting for the rattle and the last breath. Or the duty that every woman in the village had performed by the time they were my age (and many might still) many times at that, of washing the dead and dressing them in the clothes you think they’d want to wear at the resurrection. (It was so firmly believed in, as a corporeal and physical event, I remember a family being mortified because — due to illness — they couldn’t DRESS their beloved mother in one of her skirts, so they cut the skirt open in the back and laid it over her for the viewing.  But, they said “She’s going to be mortified when she stands up and her skirt falls off.”)

And that was in the mid 20th century, already, itself, an halcyon time of plenty and lack of terrors. Because in the eighteenth century, upper crust young women included at least 3 baby shrouds in their trousseaus for the babies they expected they’d lose in infancy.

All of man’s civilization is arguably fueled by knowledge that though our minds can comprehend the universe, our time is brief.  I’ve studied history ranging back thousands of years, and have dreamed of the future (mostly in other people’s books, some in mine) but the truth is, my allotted time is likely less than a century: an eye blink.

We’re all like that which fuels urgency, a desire to be getting on with it, and possibly an attempt to live the best life we can.

It also puts things in perspective. We know none of us are going to live forever. Or even close to forever. So when say someone decides to stop the entire economy and risk a global famine so we can escape a –…. what is the last calculation, now we know that this was probably here since November and a lot more people are infected? (And yes, I know, doubts are cast on each of  the studies, and yet across the world those keep corroborating each other.) — 0.02% chance of dying? we say no. We say to hell with that and the horse it rode in on, and the little dog who ran alongside it.  We always knew we were here a short time. Let us leave behind a functional world for others, one in which new brides don’t sew and store up baby shrouds.

But the young and frankly stunted — not all of the young, obviously, hence the qualification — don’t understand that. They’d never confronted their own mortality, and therefore now run in fear, because a virus can KILL them, oh the horror.

Well, cupcake, it always could. You just didn’t have a media dedicated 24-7 to telling you about it with enhanced doom porn.  (When even Dr. Birx (ah) says that a lot more people have been infected than we thought — which means that the denominator goes way up and the mortality way down — the mainstream media is still screaming about a second and third wave, and oh, the devastation. Btw, Germany opened up and no signs of a third wave. As in at all.)

The fact is that all this might have been exacerbated by our psychopathic-tendencies-enhancing education with its emphasis on self esteem and individual whim.

Individual whim? you say. But I thought you were an individualist.

Of course I am. I also am a realist. I know what humans are — jumped up Savannah apes, or if you prefer, made from the common clay of the Earth. Comes to the same — and that because we live only a blink but can compass eternity with our minds, we must belong to something larger than us, something that lasts…. well, longer than us.

This used to be fulfilled by religion, but even those who are religious have trouble living for eternity in a world that is now largely a-religious.

Then it was fulfilled by nationality, but the internationalists hated that idea and cast their sins onto nationalism, as though a scapegoat, and sent it into the desert. All over the western world, children are raised to hate the land of their birth.

Then there is ideology, but the thin gruel of Marxism, forever disproven in practice, keeps hunting for more unlikely “classes” to protect, thereby fragmenting society, destroying families and generally making a lot of very unhappy people.

Unhappy people who are terrified of dying. And who understand self-actuated life at the level of obeying daily-changing whims and desires.  Which in turn makes them more unhappy and more terrified of dying.

I guess some defects are self-correcting, and we’re hastening to either a final downfall of a hollow and ridiculous ideology (Marx really was a total dumbass, you know? BUT really good at narrative. I wish he’d devoted himself, openly, to science fiction instead.)

Or…. I don’t know. Some time of darkness from which civilization might arise again.  What we know for sure is that if they succeed in taking the West down, they won’t erect paradise. But what’s more, they won’t hold power for long.

You see, even dystopian communist societies like Cuba or Venezuela survive only because we made such abundance upon the world, that the tyrants can keep just enough food flowing to stay in power….

Well, we’re about to hit the wall on that. Even the mainstream is starting to clear its throat about food shortages, which have apparently become obvious to a bunch of people.

I don’t think we’ll die in the US (or not directly. I mean, if I have to subsist on rice and potatoes, I WILL become very fat and diabetic and die of that. I once gained weight on 800 cals a day because the diet was all carbs. Don’t ask. Like Russian peasants I was malnourished and enormous.) But the rest of the world is going to hit the wall fast.

What happens?  I don’t know.

I know our society has been distorted by fear of dying, coupled with having so few children that each of them is essential and we refuse to let them risk themselves (something that has affected everything including the military and space exploration) and that we cosset and protect them way too long.

So what happens when we have that, and then the wheels come off and we have to get back to struggling for our daily bread.

I don’t know. As a society we’re about to find out. The only thing I can promise you is that we’re looking forward to interesting times.

 

Vignettes by Luke, Mary Catelli and ‘Nother Mike and Book Promo

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Book Promo

*Note these are books sent to us by readers/frequenters of this blog.  Our bringing them to your attention does not imply that we’ve read them and/or endorse them, unless we specifically say so.  As with all such purchases, we recommend you download a sample and make sure it’s to your taste.  If you wish to send us books for next week’s promo, please email to bookpimping at outlook dot com. If you feel a need to re-promo the same book do so no more than once every six months (unless you’re me or my relative. Deal.) One book per author per week. Amazon links only. Oh, yeah, by clicking through and buying (anything, actually) through one of the links below, you will at no cost to you be giving a portion of your purchase to support ATH through our associates number. I ALSO WISH TO REMIND OUR READERS THAT IF THEY WANT TO TIP THE BLOGGER WITHOUT SPENDING EXTRA MONEY, CLICKING TO AMAZON THROUGH ONE OF THE BOOK LINKS ON THE RIGHT, WILL GIVE US SOME AMOUNT OF MONEY FOR PURCHASES MADE IN THE NEXT 24HOURS, OR UNTIL YOU CLICK ANOTHER ASSOCIATE’S LINK. PLEASE CONSIDER CLICKING THROUGH ONE OF THOSE LINKS BEFORE SEARCHING FOR THAT SHED, BIG SCREEN TV, GAMING COMPUTER OR CONSERVATORY YOU WISH TO BUY. That helps defray my time cost of about 2 hours a day on the blog, time probably better spent on fiction. ;)*

FROM PETER GRANT:  King’s Champion

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After decades of peace, war is threatening the Kingdom of Avranche. Its old foes are stirring, in a new alliance with darker powers. Black wings bring death and torture in the night.

Owain, former King’s Champion, hears rumors of sorcery. Visiting the grave of his sword brother, he stumbles into a deadly raid, and uncovers coded orders for a larger plot.

The kingdom’s enemies know Owain is now their greatest danger. He must race against time to find and deal with them… before they deal with him!

MEL DUNAY:   Marrying A Monster (The Jaiya Series Book 1.

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New, professionally edited edition!

Journey to the country of Jaiya, in a world not quite like ours. Here, humans ride trains, drive cars, and use cell phones, but they share their world with insect people and trollfolk, and stranger things lurk in the shadows…

As a favor to her parents, Rina agrees to come back to her hometown and take part in an old local custom: a symbolic marriage between the town’s women and the Mountain King, a mythical guardian spirit no one really believes in. But the Mountain King really exists: a monstrous being that feeds on fear and suffering. Rina’s only hope for survival may be Vipin, the dashing scholar hunting the Mountain King, but Vipin is hiding a few secrets of his own…

Note: Rina and another character are friends with or related to a few characters from the later books in the Jaiya series, but Monster is meant as a standalone with a “happily ever after” ending. The romance is on the sweet side, but there is some violence due to the main characters’ encounters with monsters and criminals.

FROM MARY CATELLI:  The Maze, the Manor, and the Unicorn.

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A short story of banishment and magical intrigues.

Cecily had been a lady-in-waiting. Exiled to Clearwater — for her health — after she angered Queen Blanche, she has nothing to do but wait.

Until an ambassador is sent there, for his health, and Cecily finds that the court intrigues reach farther than she had known they could.

ANNA FERREIRA:  As She Was No Horsewoman: A Pride & Prejudice Sequel.

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Elizabeth has never learnt to ride a horse. Darcy thinks this a grave oversight in her education, and with the help of a little mare named Rose, sets out to teach his wife the art of horsemanship. Poor Elizabeth had no idea what she was getting herself into…

Vignettes by Luke, Mary Catelli and ‘Nother Mike.

So what’s a vignette? You might know them as flash fiction, or even just sketches. We will provide a prompt each Sunday that you can use directly (including it in your work) or just as an inspiration. You, in turn, will write about 50 words (yes, we are going for short shorts! Not even a Drabble 100 words, just half that!). Then post it! For an additional challenge, you can aim to make it exactly 50 words, if you like.

We recommend that if you have an original vignette, you post that as a new reply. If you are commenting on someone’s vignette, then post that as a reply to the vignette. Comments — this is writing practice, so comments should be aimed at helping someone be a better writer, not at crushing them. And since these are likely to be drafts, don’t jump up and down too hard on typos and grammar.

If you have questions, feel free to ask.

Your writing prompt this week is: questionable

I’m fine

And I know I’m not being good with novel installments, but younger son came home, and I’m trying to fix what I couldn’t finish in the garden last year. So….
Anyway, just letting you know everything is okay.

Come Out, Come Out Wherever You Are

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Reclaim May Day,  set yourself free.

Even as our supposed “betters” are laying in more and more prohibitions, including the disgusting Noisome in California, closing parks and beaches, there are some things we know about COVID-19.

Besides, that is, the fact that it was never as lethal as claimed.  We now know why they stomped so hard on “it’s like the flu.”  Because, essentially?  It’s like the flu.

One thing we’ve found — this has to be the most studied disease in the universe — is that sunlight kills it. So the chances of transmission outside is about zero.  (And no, it doesn’t have wings, or hang suspended outside in midair to get you. Honestly, sometimes I wonder what’s in people’s heads. If this virus could do that, so could EVERY OTHER ONE.  To an extent, sure. They’re everywhere.  If you’ve read H. G. Well’s War of the Worlds, you know that. You also know that unlike something from outer space you evolved on this Earth and have a level of defense against the teeming life of the planet in general. Or maybe you don’t. I found out my kids’ teachers thought if you used water it went away forever, so who knows?)

Anyway, sunlight kills the virus, which didn’t transmit any too well INSIDE the Diamond Princess, in some of the best possible conditions for it, AND with an ideally aged and infirm population.  So you’re pretty safe outside. Closing the parks? Demanding you wear masks outside?  Yeah. It’s just governors getting their fash boots on.

The other thing we’ve found out is that vitamin D deficiency is the greatest predictor of “will need hospitalization.”

So. By trying to tell you that you’re “better at home” they’re actually trying to kill you.

I suggest you hoist the double middle finger, dress in something yellow (snek optional) and get out, get out wherever we are.

Unfortunately today of all days, I can’t work outside as I meant to (long story.)  HOWEVER we have a noon drive planned and we might drive 50 miles away to pick up food for dinner.  Oh, and I’ll almost certainly go for a walk after I write some.  (Even though I tried to remove dye from my hair, having decided that 29 years of coloring my hair is enough and I’m going to stop, and well…. I didn’t have enough or the right remover so my hair is BRIGHT YELLOW.  Yep, I got myself a golden scalp weasel.  The right dye remover is on the way from Amazon. Meanwhile older son refuses to be seen with me, and I’m trying not to shock the neighbors. — grin — but today I’ll go out.)

#Ollyollyoxenfree #reclaimmayday #setyourselffree #theyrenotthebossofyou

 

It Is Later Than You Think by Bill Reader A Blast From the Past from 1/22/2019

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*I am not sure whether to give Bill credit for his prescience or set him on fire.  Being that’s across the country for me and in lock down in an insane state (A lock down instigated by the new class and the media apropos nothing much), I suppose I’ll have to go with the first. We are in a pitched battle for survival and we must hope that G-d looks after fools, drunkards and the United States of America – SAH*

It Is Later Than You Think by Bill Reader A Blast From the Past from 1/22/2019

“We thought we ranked above the chance of ill.

Others might fall, not we, for we were wise—

Merchants in freedom. So, of our free-will

We let our servants drug our strength with lies.

The pleasure and the poison had its way

On us as on the meanest, till we learned

That he who lies will steal, who steals will slay.

Neither God’s judgment nor man’s heart was turned.”

-Rudyard Kipling—”The Covenant”

 

It is only lately—and, I think, in conjunction with many others on the Right—that I have properly ascertained both the magnitude and the severity of the threat we as a civilization face. I choose my words carefully, here—as a civilization. Not just as a nation, but all of us in the broader western world. We have all fallen prey to something pernicious. And it is both exactly what Glenn Reynolds discussed in his USA Today column here—and then again it is something slightly different.

I’m not seeking to present anything new to you today. I will consider myself to have done well if I present what you already know together, without the soporific effect of lengthy times between stories, or the calming effect of great distances. This is not about the future. I am not even sure it is about the present, though I remain optimistic. But see it, and judge it, for yourself— and recognize it for what it is, because I’m lately afraid our time is much dearer than we’d suspected.

It is later than you think.

The world’s seven largest economies, in ranked order, are the US, China, Japan, Germany, the UK, India, and France. Traditionally, China, Japan, and India are considered Eastern nations. Therefore in a practical sense—and probably also, arguably (albeit at more length than I care to go into; I have bigger fish to fry), in a pragmatic and philosophical sense— the heavyweights and current stabilizing poles of the Western world, writ large, are the US, Germany, the UK, and France.

It would be troubling for me to write that there had been a coup in any of these. Yet increasingly it looks like there has been a silent coup—or certainly an attempted one, at all events—in all of these. Not because of grand conspiracy, but because of a kind of monoculture among what Glenn Reynolds refers to above as “the new class”. They are easy to identify, by their smug certainty that they know better what ought to be done with and for you than you yourself do. And they are beholden—as often as they can possibly make this so— to nobody, and are guided by nothing except their doctrinaire beliefs in what might charitably be called academic Marxism, and might more aptly be called simple totalitarianism.

Angela Merkel was the bellwether. Guided not by the desires of her citizens, nor by any apparent concern or understanding of its ramifications, but solely because it was pleasant to pretend that Germany could accommodate them, she opened Germany’s borders to vast hordes of impoverished denizens of the third world. As tends to happen with people imported from backwater nations using absolutely no filtering process to guarantee they are even aware of their host nation’s values— let alone support said values— they brought the cultures of their native motherlands along with them instead (not that this is topical in any way). And on New Years Eve, in 2015, “For all of Germany, police estimated in a document leaked in 2016 that 1,200 women were sexually assaulted and that at least 2,000 men were involved, often acting in groups”. These crimes, largely by ‘men of “Arab or North African appearance”,’ were the gratitude Germany got for its attempt at grandiose humanitarian aid.

A heavy price was borne for Merkel’s arrogance, though Merkel herself remained comfortably distant from what she caused, as is usually the case in these “for your own good” schemes. Her only meaningful punishment is that she is not planning to seek re-election as leader of the CDU or Germany—and even still, she fully intends to stay chancellor until 2021. Though not before making German politics decidedly more—interesting. In 2017, along with her ouster, suddenly the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party was a significant force, and her own party was on the back foot—to her shock and dismay. Her citizens chose the “wrong” answer, and the international press was sure to tell everyone as much. (As an aside: the “quality” reporting in the US and UK makes it utterly impossible for me to tell whether AfD is actually a concern in its own right, or just a correction to an overwhelmingly idiotic decision by the ruling party. Insofar as the MSM can’t tell the difference between Trump and Hitler and have reportedly been axing foreign correspondent positions for years, I tend to assume that the AfD would get called Nazis purely for holding stances the Left disagrees with. Actually being German is just icing on the cake. By the way, to any leftists reading, here’s a hint: Hitler probably wouldn’t even recognize Israel—given that a lot of the radical islamic groups in the middle east were originally funded by the Nazis in part because they both hated Jews. He would therefore be decidedly unlikely to favor Israel over “Palestine” by moving his embassy to Jerusalem. Oh, and he probably wouldn’t be Grand Marshall in a Salute to Israel Parade. But I digress. On the other hand, 2017 is also the year “Mein Kampf” got back on the German bestseller’s list, and you can spin that how you like, but it doesn’t strike me as a good sign. I would love it if someone who is near Germany could weigh in with their thoughts in the comments.)

Turn now to the case of Brexit. In a complete surprise to the British elite, a referendum on leaving the EU came back showing that the British don’t like absentee landlords from the rest of the continent telling them what to do. This had recently become especially important since, well, Germany had just attempted to commit suicide by taking a massive overdose of immigrants.

Now the EU was telling the rest of its members that it was no fair not also attempting suicide, and immigrants should be able to move freely into England from Germany. Not that the British press said it this way. No, the British press, curiously, decided to frame their opponents as being “anti-immigration”—which they say in roughly the same way you or I might say “satanist”—thus demonstrating that between Germany and Scandinavia, professional leftists the world over don’t really have a problem with rape, as long as the victim is a blond white chick.

Moreover, the elite in Britain were outraged, since many of their close personal friends happen to be absentee landlords from the rest of the continent, and their favorite hobby to bond over is making up absurd things and telling people to do them. Think of it as “Simon Says”, except to stop playing you have to emigrate—and you have to wait for Simon to say you can emigrate.

But, driven by a resolute belief in the power of democracy, they boldly decided to: not comply with the result. The people, you see, had once again gotten the “wrong” answer. So the British elite dragged its feet, and the EU threw an outright tantrum which made it easier for them to do so. (Not that the EU doesn’t have its reasons—England leaving is an existential threat to the EU, since it essentially destroys the current “rob from the rich and give to the dysfunctional” model it operates on by taking a massive cash source away. If you wonder why the EU is trying to rob Britain blind in Brexit “deal” negotiations, it’s because they can’t afford not to.). This culminated in a “deal” by Theresa May that was so ass-backwards many people think it was intentionally designed to be broken—and it went down in flames by a massive margin. The rest of this story hasn’t even been told, yet, but the smart money is that Britain’s elite is going to try to push another vote on Brexit, and this time encourage people, by hook or crook, to choose the “right” answer.

Say, do you notice a pattern?

Well, how about this story, one you know well. The MSM, to give the First Woman President (TM) the best possible chance, openly prayed for the person they considered the worst, most back-number conservative candidate, to run against her.

And when they got him—good and hard, as you might say—they proceeded to attempt to destroy him the way they’d always done with Republican candidates. EG, they called him Hitler (I always wonder how many Leftists who instantly played the Nazi card on Trump even remember that we endured probably six solid years of the “Chimpy McBushHitler” slander from them, personally, before Trump was even a major national candidate. If the Republicans could nominate Anne Frank to a major position, the Democrats would trip over themselves to call her literally Hitler—and a gender traitor, to boot.)

Trouble was, first, they didn’t factor in that they were still running one of the most unlikeable people on the planet—a person whose tagline rapidly became a single derogatory term for opponents, “deplorables”—that applied, essentially, to everyone from far right to moderate middle.

Secondly, they assumed that running footage of Trump discussing his beliefs and campaign promises would hurt him. To be honest, to the extent that I was skeptical of Trump at the beginning, it was because: A- Given that he was from New York and had pictures taken with virtually every notable Democrat you can imagine, I didn’t think he believed in or would even attempt his campaign promises; and B- I was partially caught up in the media response on the right, from outlets like National Review that, in retrospect, I think were themselves mostly people who couldn’t bring themselves to doubt there had to be fire behind the massive MSM smoke-bomb, and later felt they’d be seen as inconsistent if they changed their minds.

But for anyone else who was in my boat, I can’t imagine that seeing what Trump actually said was especially off-putting. There are things like tariffs I’m not in love with—but most of the platform is solid. Tax reform, an emphasis on border security (of any kind, actually, compared to the import-a-voter Left), reforming (rather than, as the single-payer advocates like Hillary would have it, further deforming) healthcare, deregulation, taking the boot off the face of American energy producers—there’s a lot in there that most of the right and many in the middle can agree on. Meanwhile, Hillary “Adult Fun Camps” Clinton basically offered European governance, except more corrupt. This rather extreme position, the MSM explained, was “moderate”, and they estimated that Hillary had a 99.9999999% chance of winning, with the remaining 0.0000001% being their estimated odds of her being tragically hit by a meteor.

But insofar as this was about five months after Brexit, where it turned out that even Britain had had enough of European governance, this went over about as well as you’d imagine.

Actually, it went over worse. Hillary Clinton went from impossible-to-lose to impossible-to-win so fast it had much of the  MSM exposing their true colors that very night. You remember the tears and shocked faces?

That alone should have put middle America on notice about media bias. And to the Democrats, this seemed like some kind of terrible miracle. I’ve talked about that before, and I won’t belabor it now, but I suspect that’s in part because the upper echelons of Democrats know they rig the game in their favor.

And if you don’t think they know it, first, I offer the examples of Arizona and Florida in the 2018 midterms. And second, I offer the very first bill the new House brought to the floor. And third, as an extension of their, shall we say, morally challenged ways, note the willingness to use the FBI on a fishing expedition against Trump, starting before the election and continuing, now, a full two years in. I’d say there’s very little that shows off to better effect that they want to win at all cost.

Because there patently isn’t any there, there. There never was any. At best it was about using Russia as a convenient excuse to find something, anything, real, with which to take down Trump and thus reverse the election results. At worst, they didn’t even want something real. They may well have simply wanted a string of tantalizing accusations that would then be immediately disproven. Note the unending barrage of Headlines in 30 point font and retractions in 6 point font a week later (if, indeed, any retraction materializes at all), which the media collectively calls “ethical journalism”. In fact, look at what has happened this very week—as we saw a “bombshell” about Trump so stupid it was dissolved by Mueller’s office within a day, followed by a “bombshell” about catholic school-kids disproven by more extensive video evidence than a murder on a movie set, some of it taken by the professional protesto— I’m sorry, I mean “victim”, himself. “You can bury a person just as effectively with potting soil, as you can with real dirt. You just need to buy enough of it,” is the new MSM motto.

And what is all of this ultimately for? Why do it?

Because you, American voter, chose the “wrong answer”. And your elites are here to “educate” that tendency out of you. But first, they need to violate a ton of laws, and take us well into banana republic territory (What else do you call government officials, many from the last administration, rebelling against a duly and legally elected leader and actively fighting everything he does, exactly? Contrary to what the Left likes to say, that is extremely ordinary behavior—from Leftists, no less—in those lovely South and Central American countries that are so well run, we need a wall in part to keep their people from coming into the US en masse. What it is not a legitimate part of, is the tradition of Western Democracy.).

Not because they want to, you understand. If you had simply surrendered like good boys and girls and submitted to your rightful masters, they could have done everything they wanted without breaking any laws. It was you, ungrateful peon, who forced them to use extra-legal means to continue upholding the status quo, and only because they are deeply #principled are they continuing to doggedly fight to ensure your rights are abrogated for your own good. And by the way, as with the EU in Brexit, the Left is fighting Trump tooth and nail because he’s threatening their nest egg.

They know that people from South of the border vote Democrat. If at all possible, the Democrats would like to integrate them into their welfare web (Because on closer inspection, it’s oddly reliable how the “safety net” seems designed both to trap people and make them prey to eternal predation by Democrats. One might begin to suspect LBJ knew what he was about, no?), and keep them voting Democrat for, well, forever. People call them out about flip-flopping on their stances, but of course in their mind they haven’t flip-flopped at all. They were willing to support border security only when there was virtually no chance of it being enforced. That’s why the Trump administration has noted that there are extant laws calling for barriers on the Southern border pre-dating his administration, which were curiously unenforced. Now that there’s a chance of border security being enforced, the Democrats are openly opposing it. But their position is consistency itself.

The only thing that changed is that before they were lying to keep you happy, and now you ungrateful oafs have forced them to acknowledge their actual beliefs.

And so, after all that, what do you do with a place like France? Macron, by all accounts, is only the proximal cause in a long string of abuses on the French people—and more specifically, its middle class.

You see, in pursuit of various personal goals—forcing people into carpooling and mass transit, environmental posturing, good old fashioned money and power—apparently France’s elites have, for some time, been enacting increasingly insane laws that benefit themselves while inconveniencing the populace. At some point, a tipping point was reached, and the people of France donned yellow vests and started protesting—say have I heard this song before? Sounds like it’s being done by a French cover band. At all events, the French government—apt students of history that they aren’t—have responded in the way any reasonable oligarch would: they’ve started talking about banning unsanctioned protests. Yes, this will go well. Obviously. How could it possibly not?

The people of France were successfully talked out of voting for Le Pen, but, mon dieu, they have still somehow fallen backwards and now, malheureusement, have picked the “wrong” answer. It is up to their betters in the elite class to make this gauche and ill-mannered display impossible by outlawing it, because outlawing behaviors the government dislikes has an excellent historical record of causing them to vanish, especially when those behaviors include protesting said government.

But you appreciate that, while we can laugh at this because it’s better than crying, it’s a sign of something deeply unhealthy and vastly widespread?

Every pillar of the Western world, it seems, has revealed itself to be infected with an extremely dangerous political class, formed of people who believe implicitly in rule by the enlightened, by the right people, even while mouthing obfuscating lies about “democracy”.

They believe in populism until someone plays the game of populism better. They believe in democracy, the more direct the better, as long as they think they’ll be in power under it. But mostly what they believe in is power.

The rest is window dressing. They are aristocrats in modern suits, and the government changes around them, but they remain the same. They believe in grand, stupid, and impossible visions that benefit them, and actively harm their people, and pursue them to the exclusion of all else. Oh, certainly they are the “new class”.

But they are more than that. They are a sign that Western Democracy has unofficially become Western “Democracy”. Now that the opinions of the people—in Germany, in England, in the United States, and now in France—have become inconvenient, the governments are finding they would like to dissolve the people and elect another. And they will do anything to achieve that end—”we let our servants drug our strength with lies”. France and England sound poised to commit to these brave new social experiments in their own ways, and the US won’t be far behind if the Democrats ever get enough funding to run a few more fraudulent investigations.

So look around you, while you still can. The sun is high in the sky. The last day of rule by the people—by the actual people, rather than by a “bolshevik” (literally, majority) minority— is half gone already. We’ve all been living in a very pleasant world, but it’s one that’s enabled us to relatively disregard politics, and that has let some very unsavory characters slip in while we were living in a dream. “The pleasure and the poison had its way”.

It is later than you think.

I have said before that I am unsure whether America will have another civil war, even though many of her people are—foolishly, to anyone who has seen one— spoiling for one.

The factors are myriad, but king of them all is geographical emulsification and the lack of clear battle lines. I’ve been trying, for ages, to think of how that might change. Now, I realize, it won’t.

What’s happened in France and is happening in Britain has made me realize that the conflict is fundamentally between normal people who are getting pissed on, and people who sympathize with—and often someday hope to become—the unelected or unremovable power brokers who are pissing on them.

I know of no true historical model for a civil war in a country that looks and acts demographically like America does now.

But—as Angela Merkel learned, and as I suspect France will soon discover—history is wall-papered, end to end, with examples of leaders uninterested in the well-being of their people who eventually faced deposition of one form or another.

I pray that somehow, the leaders of America allow the peaceful and existing processes that could allow that to happen to advance unabated. It will take surviving a bitter old guard and defanging a particularly idiotic new guard of Democrats. It will take acknowledging earnestly that whole departments of our government, just like our press, have largely fallen into the hands of people who hate the nation and its people, and re-evaluating our goals on who to elect and what to do in elected office from that perspective.

But we must rise, face the day, and try. It is later than you think—and getting later. Because, I maintain, part of America’s ability not to become the bloody quagmire that France did during its revolution was down to the people it was revolting against being on the other side of an ocean.

I think we are— all Western nations, and we, no exception— more at more risk than I had initially thought of our own French revolution, and that’s a thing we decidedly do not need, and a place we decidedly do not wish to go. The name might survive—but I fear that nothing else of value in our country would.

The Future’s So Bright

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I woke up today filled with probably unwarranted optimism.

This happens so very rarely that I’ve come to believe it’s a gift of sorts.  And perhaps more.  You see, I’ve always had the embarrassing gift of “sensing” the future. I’m not laying claim to any paranormal ability with this, note. It’s just if you spend your evenings going over the news everywhere, and if your rational self is prone to pessimism (being rational and the nature of the world being what it is) at some point your subconscious takes over and starts communicating with you via hunches.

I loved the scene in Friday where the boss has Friday spend her time immersing herself into what we’d now call the internet, and then calls her in the middle of the night to ask her the answer to questions to which she should have no response, and she answers…. accurately.

My mind is a tug of war between lived experience — I’ve seen the movie of descent into (greater) socialist madness before — and my subconscious. When they both agree it’s a bad bad thing.

I still expect this fall to be tight, because too many things have been smashed with a hammer for it to be otherwise.  And that of course will put the election at risk of falling to the socialists.  On the other hand, my subconscious woke up singing.

Part of this is, I suppose, that I have cleaned out and tagged (and got rid of expired) emergency storage food, and found I have an extra, unopened #10 can of eggs, which, as those who’ve used it know, can last forever.  I’ve also a lot of freeze dried vegetables, and like the potato chip people I will make more. And I have two gallon cans of olive oil on order.  All of which adds up to: we’re not going to starve. If push comes to shove, we can survive on soup and bread — we have a lot of almond and coconut flour — for a long, long time.  What’s more, we have peanut butter to put on the bread. A LOT of peanut butter.  Which even my husband refuses to put on the tuna, which we also have more of than I expected.  However, we have a can of egg whites, and tuna soufle, or quiche is a thing.

Knowing this is a great comfort. Not that I expect the shelves to be bare — well, not now — but I do expect the occasional hiccup.  And while I don’t have the food to survive Venezuela — so please let’s not go there, kay thanx — for years and years and years, I do have the food to paper over gaps.  In fact I’m kind of impressed at how much we have already laid by, though of course I’m not just sitting back and waiting.

IF I’m grossly wrong and we come out of this in a V shape, i.e. if our ascent is as steep as the sudden drop off on stopping, I’ll take most of the laid by food and donate to the firefighters’ in Manitou and their Christmas program, because you see, almost twenty years ago, when we found ourselves unemployed and scrambling JUST before Christmas, they delivered two massive boxes at our doorstep, which saw us through the three months of scrambling till we had solid footing again. I keep meaning to return the favor, but yeah, either through being very tight at that time OR through being very busy, we’ve yet to manage it.

First I should say the last time I had this counter-intuitive  counter-rational feeling that everything would be all right was after the election in 2012. And I attributed it to “Can’t live with fear forever.”  If you go back over that year, you see the hope — real hope not the cheap glitter of hope ‘n change take hold slowly, that it would all come out all right after all.  But I had trouble working through it, because, well… you know, I don’t believe in magic.  And I knew the damage that has been done to this country, and the depth it went to.

And yet, looking back and considering the insanity of Pierre Delecto, it’s entirely possible the best man won. And that the damage done by an open enemy of our country in the presidency was less than what a false and deluded friend would have done.

Let’s remember it was a republican — but a statist — who set us up to be screwed by China for decades, something that no democrat could have managed, no matter how much they wanted to. (OTOH they would have rolled over and waved their paws for Russia, so in the end, in that one too, maybe the best man won.)

Thing is, we don’t see parallel worlds, and though we can tell how bad things turn out here sometimes, we can’t tell how badly they’d have turned if what we wanted came to pass. I.e. if the rational part of our brain had guided the future.

So, what’s my gut feeling today? (Note I’m not saying any of this is right. Only that my gut is right a disturbing number of times. At least more than my brain.)

Today my feeling on the lockdown is that BGE is right. The states will open up and everything will be back to normal within the month. Pence has already seeded this by saying that he expects all this to be behind us by May 25.

And yep, it will be at first slow, then very fast. (I mean BGE makes his living predicting the behavior of masses of people, right? So he’s probably right.)

The leftards and the media (BIRM) will try to hold on to their doom reality show, but if the open states don’t all succumb to Wuhan lung rot, it’s going to get harder and harder.

With any luck this opens people eyes to their governors and their proclivities.

But I’m also getting a sense that the president is going along with the insanity because it suits him.  I mean, what have we seen from him before?  The Democrats “corner” him and suddenly find that they gave him everything he really wanted.  It’s president B’rer Rabbit forever.

There are things happening that frankly wouldn’t be possible without the crisis. Not only is the border getting sealed, but we’ve somehow convinced Mexicans that the US is more dangerous. (SMDH. Who’d have believed it?)

Drug traffic has fallen like a rock, particularly international drug traffic.

And meanwhile our president, who has always done a ton of things behind the scenes is now, under cover of this massive reality show the left staged, frantically undoing the damage of a century of centralization and attempts to plan the economy.

Look, I’m not saying he’s a conservative (neither am I, except in the sense that I’m to the right of Lenin. Most of “severe conservatism” seems to be using the right boot, rather than the left, to stomp on your trachea. And honestly, these days “severe conservatives” are globalists, which is a disease, not a cure.)  I’m not saying he’s a Libertarian (again, these days, neither am I, except in the sense the founding fathers were.)

What I’m saying is that the president was (and is) a businessman.  He knows better than most how hampered, chained down and bogged down the economy is. How it’s a miracle that the US remains the power house of the world after importing so many “planned” ideas from communism since WWI (and accelerating.)

I think, ladies, gentlemen and small furries, that he saw this emergency as “don’t let a crisis go to waste.”

I hope he judged right, and that he turns the corner just in time, before popular sentiment turns against him, but while he can free the economy as much as possible right now, and set us on a path to free it more.

There will still be trouble, such as the loss of airplanes.  And there will be riots and issues in major cities, because, you know, the shortage of drugs will allow some number of addicts to get over it and recover and build their lives, but others are going to go crazy.  (Well both of those were mounting problems, that needed to be resolved. This is a sudden change, but perhaps what emerges is better. At least now we know the governors who were perfectly willing to put their populace under house arrest, cannot refuse to “violate the civil liberties” of dangerous crazies infesting every city and terrorizing law abiding citizens.  Yes, politicians, but in this case I mean the homeless.)

And maybe, just maybe, if B’rer Rabbit judges his landing in the spiney JUST right, he can get jobs to relocate to the US, can get us to stop giving our best jobs to what amounts to foreign slave labor, and can unchain the giant as much as he can be unchained in (hopefully) two terms.

Consider how well we did with just the removal of some hampering. Imagine what Americans will do if the chains of regulation that have accumulated since Woodrow Wilson are removed. You ain’t seen nothing like us yet! I imagine we’ll surprise even me.

And then there’s schools and colleges.  They’re going to lose a lot of audience. Given what they’ve devolved into, that’s not bad.

Hollywood and traditional publishing, too, either will have to do some creative thinking very fast or take it in the shorts.  Since they’ve spent most of their creativity for decades into how best to screw creatives, I predict the result will be ugly. And I’ll coast down the river of their tears in an innertube, with a bucket of margaritas by my side.

Look, indie is fine. And Hollywood? Well, I’m sure some indie moviemakers not raging leftists will find a path of opportunity soon. I’m keeping fingers crossed.

IF my gut is right — and do you know how rarely my gut is OPTIMISTIC?  Most of the time its optimism is “It could be worse.” — we’re going to come out of this insanity better than ever, and will actually have a massive Summer of Recovery.  It won’t be blared from the headlines, but honestly, people still know their circumstances.

Was this ideal? None of it was ideal. But you roll with the punches you’re given.

Look around you. There should be a lot of new opportunities.  If rumblings I’m hearing are right, there will be great opportunities in your field soon, no matter what your field is.

Be not afraid. Sure. Stockpile some tuna and some peanut butter and some bread fixings. Because you never know.  And there will be rough patches. Sometimes VERY rough patches, depending on where you live.

And let’s hope there’s some plan to explode the ridiculous and ever ballooning vote fraud around election time, otherwise we’re STILL screwed.  But I have some (slim) hope that’s true.

Build under, build over, build around. Most of you are creative, odd, and see the opportunities other people miss.  Go to it now. Your time has come.

The Chinese Matter – by BGE

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*My apologies to BGE for getting this up so late. It’s been an odd morning. It’s still a very important thing to get out there. – SAH*

The Chinese Matter – by BGE

In November 1971, not long after the Nixon administration ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, then Treasury secretary John Connally told his counterparts during a G10 meeting that “the dollar is our currency, but your problem.”   Despite the Bretton Woods era being long gone, this remains true today.  The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and this simple fact is the root of our “Exorbitant Privilege” and a primary reason that China’s huge holdings of US Treasuries are their problem, not ours.

Certainly, China could dump their holdings or choose not to take up the waves of Treasuries coming on to the market, but only at the cost of completely wrecking their economy.  The logic of tyrants is not the logic of a free society, but even a tyrant must ensure that those who maintain him in power are fed and well-oiled or he ends up dead, often messily. Wrecking the Chinese economy, which is weaker than popularly believed, would damage those on whom the tyranny depends for support. Crucially, this includes the Army and Intelligence functions whose senior officers have become rich through state-owned corporations.

Finally, it might not work as intended.  The conventional wisdom seems to be that China’s dumping US treasuries would cause interest rates to increase (bond prices move opposite to rates; high rates mean low prices and low rates mean high prices,) thus driving up US interest payments and, in classic mercantilist fashion, wrecking US exports and giving China comparative advantage through a weak renminbi.  Certainly, it would produce a couple of interesting days on the markets but, unless a new reserve currency emerges, a return to economic normality would also mean a return to the dollar shortages that existed up to the day the world hunkered down.  That there was, and will be again, a shortage of dollars may seem paradoxical, but it is very real and arises from the dollar being the world’s reserve currency and China faces the largest dollar shortage of all.

So then, what is a global reserve currency?  Simply put, a global reserve currency is a means of exchange for world trade.  Before the war, it was gold and silver, since the war it’s been the US dollar.  The world needs dollars to intermediate global trade.  The more global trade, the greater demand for dollars.

To give an example, a Swedish export firm is selling product to a Japanese import firm, delivery in three months .  The Japanese firm doesn’t go out and buy Swedish Kronor, rather the Japanese firm goes to its bank and buys a Eurodollar deposit maturing in three months.  The Japanese bank sells Eurodollars forward for three months for kronor to the Swedish firm’s bank, who provides Kronor to the Swedish firm.  (this example and several that follow come from Jeffery Snider at Alhambra Investments.)  While this seems unnecessarily complicated,  scale and liquidity make it routine and much more efficient than the Japanese firm trying to find someone who is selling Kronor.

The key here is the notion of the Eurodollar.  A Eurodollar is simply a dollar liability outside the United States, mostly in London and Tokyo.  The term arose during the 1970’s as oil producers put the proceeds of oil sales into European banks outside the control of US authorities.  These banks, and this includes the overseas parts of American banks, began to use these deposits as funding for US Dollar lending and the money multiplier allowed the supply of dollars to increase immensely while the US money supply need not change.  This seemed to overcome Triffin’s Dilemma, the conflict of interests between short-term domestic and long-term international objectives.  There’s a catch, which we’ll come to later.

Let’s turn, then, to China.  Dollars flow into China through investments and the proceeds of merchandise trade.  China ships goods to the United States and is paid in dollars provided through the Eurodollar system.  The Peoples Bank of China (PBC) ends up with a lot of them and buys US Treasuries.  At the same time, the PBC issues Chinese currency, the renminbi.  The renminbi is not a convertible currency,  it’s essentially domestic scrip.  China has few natural resources and needs to import most raw materials.  For that they need dollars.  Since no-one outside China wants renminbi, it is not a stretch to say that the Eurodollar is the Chinese currency, as it is for most countries world-wide.  Europe, the UK, and Japan have large enough internal markets that their currency has value apart from the dollar, but for China and the rest, no.  For international trade you need the dollar.

This is power, this is hegemony, this is the exorbitant privilege that d’Estaing spoke of.  The military might of the US helps keep it in existence and the productivity of the American economy makes it credible, but it’s the power of the dollar that keeps ally and enemy in line.  The United States can do what other nations cannot and there’s little the other nations can do about it.

We’ll return to China, but first let’s return to the Japan/Sweden example.  The banks perform two key intermediate functions here, first is facilitating trade between currencies (here Kronor and Yen) the second and more important is time.  Delivery is in three months and the bank has done what is called maturity transformation.  They have taken money today for delivery three months from now.  Maturity transformation is the fundamental social function of bank’s always and everywhere.  They borrow short and lend long. This is by nature unstable and, when coupled with leverage, the cause of all banking crises, but it is the key step that allows strangers to trade at a distance and its benefits have long outstripped its cost.

Now the catch I mentioned above.  Money and Banking textbooks begin with the notion that policy makers decide on money supply and execute through some sort of reserve ratio, either to gold or deposits with the central bank.  It isn’t that way and hasn’t been for a long time.  The money supply is limited only by the balance sheet capacity of the participating banks and the balance sheet capacity is limited by the amount of good collateral available.  The Eurodollar market is funded by something called a Repurchase Agreement or repo.  Essentially, a money market fund lends money, usually overnight, to a financial institution secured by collateral.  Before 2008, a great deal of the collateral was prime commercial paper, which included (e.g.,) mortgage obligations.  Since then,  only first world government bonds will do.  This is why German or Japanese bonds can have negative interest rates.  The banks do not hold them to earn interest, they hold them as collateral to meet the margin call when BofNY Mellon comes calling. For dollar loans, only US treasuries will do and there’s not enough of them to meet all the calls on them.  This is the dollar shortage I spoke of.  Triffin’s Dilemma is alive and well.

Chinese firms need dollars to buy raw materials today for delivery for dollars in the future.  For this, they go to Chinese banks who borrow short and lend long.  The key difference is that both the borrowing and the lending are in dollars not renminbi and the borrowing is usually off-shore. The big four Chinese banks used to have a surplus of dollar assets over liabilities (around $125B in 2013,) but have had a deficit since the end of 2018.  They have huge, mismatched short-term liabilities that they need to roll over continuously and their counterparties require US Treasuries as collateral.  The only source of this collateral is the US Treasury holdings of the PBC.  Were the collateral to be insufficient the banks would have to reduce their lending or, potentially, call loans in, which tends to lead to rolling defaults.

China was an economic basket case before the Wuhan Flu.  Debt to GDP ratios had skyrocketed and there was a great deal of over capacity in the system.  All numbers out of China are suspect, but the reported GDP growth rates were a function of growth in leverage not growth in productivity.  They had reached the Ponzi finance stage that Minsky described. They resemble Japan in the early 1990’s where demographic weakness and excessive leverage blew a bubble that the Japanese economy has not fully recovered from almost 30 years later.  The key difference is that Japan was rich and China is not and Japan had accumulated genuine capital through their innovation and reputation for quality.  China does not innovate, it steals, and has squandered what little reputation it had.

The rot in China is concentrated in the state-owned conglomerates.  These state-owned firms are hugely inefficient and there is massive over-capacity.  They have built empty cities, bridges to nowhere, railroads that don’t work, and hospitals that fall down.  Their products are shoddy where they are not actively dangerous.  The contaminated virus tests and PPE that fall apart when touched are recent examples of Chinese build quality.

These firms are owned by the state, but the returns go to highly placed state functionaries including high ranking military and intelligence officers.  They have become rich and powerful and are the constituency that Bloomberg spoke of when he said that Xi had to “satisfy his constituents or he’s not going to survive.”   The common people of China are no concern to Xi, but he must look after those who maintain him in power.  This is the logic of tyranny.

Thus, to Xi’s dilemma.  To work off this over capacity and maintain his power, China must increase exports, since, as a centrally planned state, it cannot burn off the excess since doing so would lead to a crisis in the regime.  They cannot increase exports because there was excess capacity throughout the world in the period leading up to the crisis and that excess capacity has increased since.  Oil futures have never “sold” at a negative price before.

With all that has gone on, who will buy and who would buy from China?  If they cannot export, they face collapse since they are all highly leveraged, in dollars so the central bank cannot simply print money.  What they can do is horde US Treasuries and buy as many as they can to shore up the state-owned industries.

Were they to fail, the collapse would roll through China destroying the middle class and possibly leading to famine in the provinces.  Xi does not answer to the people, but he does require the military to fire on the crowd if necessary and the military must count on its soldiers, or at least its sergeants.  They backed the regime at Tiananmen Square, but it is not clear what they would do if called on to fire on a crowd when their people back home are starving.  Famine has been the cause the removal of the mandate of heaven from many a Chinese emperor and could well be again.

So, China is very weak and the biggest risk to the rest of the world is error, either on our part or theirs.  Regarding our part, we really must question how far China’s corruption is embedded in our political, business, and media institutions.  We must also question why our politicians seem hell bent on destroying the economy.  Stupidity and fear are usually sufficient explanations for folly, but at the very least we should question whose interests are being served and why.

For China’s part, the biggest risk is human error.  There is a logic to tyranny, but tyrants are human and humans are not always logical.  Tyrants also rule alone and there is very limited resilience in a centrally controlled economy.  Lastly, the Chinese are often degenerate gamblers.  As drink is to the Irish, gambling is to the Chinese.  Xi is a tyrant, no-one is likely to tell him the truth since the truth might get the messenger killed, rather they will tell him what they think he wants to hear and he has been gambling not knowing the true odds and, thus, making mistakes.  His handling of the virus has been disastrous and he is making a very bad mistake in Hong Kong.

I mentioned above that there are two sources of dollars for China, investment and the proceeds of merchandise trade.  Much of the foreign investments come into China through Hong Kong since, under the one country two systems agreement, you could get your investments out of Hong Kong.  The risk was seen to be much lower.  No more.  By crushing dissent in Hong Kong, China risks losing a large portion of their dollar funding.  What price ego?  If they lose their dollar funding, where will they get oil or any of the other things they would need to make war

So, while China seems strong, it is weak.  Its economy is very shaky and Xi’s gambling could wreck it and cost him his life.  The US appears weak but is strong and that strength is why the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency.  The US economy before the current stupidity was a function of two things, the first is productivity, the US worker continues to be the most productive in the world.  The second is demographics.  The US had an “echo-boom” as its baby boomers had children.  Europe didn’t, Japan and Korea didn’t, China put in the one-child policy and managed to produce a slow-moving demographic disaster.

Precipitous action by China either through dumping their treasuries or invading Taiwan would be disastrous for them and fatal for Xi. The world runs on dollars and the demand for them is still higher than supply.  The only risk to is our politicians and I truly believe they are also gambling not knowing the odds.  We must defend our liberty and, if we do, all will be well.

Noli Timere.