
We used to know so many things, in the past.
Or at least I did.
I mean, I knew a lot of things in Europe that turned out not to be real at all here. Like I knew that the US was wild and there were shootouts on the street all the time. (I still wanted to come here as an exchange student. What can i say. Did I ever claim my instinct of self preservation worked at all, let alone well?)
I knew that nuclear power was dangerous — dangerous I tell you! — which is why we couldn’t have nuclear energy.
And I knew were were all going to freeze to death because of pollution, that we were running out of oil for real, that population was growing so fast food would be rationed by the end of the eighties and–
Oh lots of things. Including that Chinese would continue reproducing too fast to vanish, even if you lined them up and had them jump off a cliff (no one said how many at a time. A serious flaw. No. I mean, people die anyway at a constant rate. Would the cliff jumping be more or less than normal death. I don’t know. No one told me, and it didn’t occur to me to ask.)
How did I know this? Well, I was young and everyone agreed on these things: school, scientists who wrote articles for scientific publications, novelists, song writers, the daily papers.
We all knew lots of things like that. We “knew” them because everyone “knew” them and if you said you didn’t then you’d be laughed at; it would be assumed you were just uninformed and ignorant.
… We surely have passed a lot of water since then, haven’t we? And in my case moving back and forth and back again between countries contributed to my examining everything I was told very carefully. An approach to information that could be described as “Chew, but don’t swallow.”
Some of the nonsense, from population to “we’re going to freeze to death” started looking more and more doubtful as time went by.
When I did 12th grade in the US, for instance, I found out that the average Portuguese family size was six children per woman. Guys, that would be like being told that about the US now, not even in the eighties. There were more families I met in the US with two and four kids than I knew in Portugal, where except for two large families (six and eleven) most of the people I knew had one kid, and a little less than half had two. However, it didn’t take much effort to realize the population numbers claimed for Portugal ONLY worked if every woman was popping off kids like crazy. And then at some point I realized it was a curious thing that all the countries claiming explosive population growth were countries who were either trying to intimidate us with how stronk they were — Russia, China — and countries that were net receivers of international charity, usually administered per capita.
Other things: the many many deaths from AIDS in Africa, so many that there were roving bands of orphaned kids, as reported by people who lived there, were somehow never reflected in the population numbers: they too must be like the Chinese, able to reproduce faster and faster while jumping off cliffs.
And I read Heinlein’s debunking of the population size in Moscow making it 1/4th the size claimed. And reports from friends who actually put their translation training to use filtered in. Stuff like “It’s physically impossible for Mexico City to be the size claimed. The water available wouldn’t keep that large a population alive. We’re not talking showers and laundry. Just drinking water, okay?” And I thought “That’s Mexico City. Which is maybe a little impoverished, but compared to Africa….”
Then at some point in the middle of the night, I remembered how haphazard things like the census are HERE where we’re practically autistic about number counting, and I started laughing at the thought of Middle Eastern countries counting every Bedouin, of African countries sending people into the wild to count the Maasai (to quote P. J. O’Rourke on the imbecility of Kenya trying to force the Maasai to live in government housing: “First, catch a Maasai.”) It was like a great light bulb went on and I thought “I bet you they either pull from air, or go out on the street and ask a couple of guys who, in those societies, will all say “Why I have twenty kids from my four wives” when in fact — very common if they’re not massively wealthy. One of the problems of polygamous societies — they are incells.
I immediately set out to test the waters. Not by speaking to strangers, but now and then I’d mention it to friends.
Who, invariably, called me insane. Crazy. Nutso. Everyone knew the population was well over six billion and ticking up towards OMG. How could I think otherwise? Didn’t I see the cities growing and impinging on wildlife habitats?
Well… I did, yes, of course, but hear you, did they ever hear about the interior non-city of countries, not just the US becoming depopulated? (This is a big problem in Portugal, and it is a problem of infrastructure and resources. I love the countryside there, not very fond of the cities. But in the unlikely, well nigh impossible event I were to relocate, I’d HAVE to move to a city. Why? Well, I’m over sixty. The availability of acceptable medical resources, for one. Other reasons, but that would be at a the top.
Still, I couldn’t dent anyone’s CERTAINTY (see yesterday’s post) that population was exploding. Exploding. Massively exploding.
Until…. Until we started noticing that it wasn’t. Now quite a few demographers say it’s not, and we’re on the verge of flipping and ending up in a population dearth.
I’m going to lay down a marker. I don’t think I’ll ever collect because HOW WOULD WE KNOW? But here it is: We never reached six billion and world population is in free fall.
But Sarah! Don’t you see all the immigrants! Well, except most aren’t. Most are males who want to send money back home. That’s just a measure of how effed the world is and also mind you how easy it has been to bilk the system here, so they can send a lot, a lot of money “home.” In fact they were recruited and helped to come here precisely for that purpose. (If you have time I HIGHLY recommend this series of guest posts on this blog. Also I need to check on Bill, given how the Ivies have been. And he’s been weird since 2020.) Even the left calls them “migrants” for a reason. They’re not established. Not settled. They come and they go. (With lots of our money in their suitcases.)
Still most people still say things like “Well, perhaps the population is a little lower. Perhaps we won’t hit ten billion… perhaps…”
Which makes me snort giggle, because again, how would you know? What do you know and how, when every number is corrupted, even here, much less elsewhere? (And if you think that people aren’t getting counted here and there, I’d like to sell you some swampland in Florida. I’ll even remove the gators first. Maybe.)
People are flailing about knowing that 2020 has ripped away faith in the institutions because they all turned out to be lying liars who lied, they know that the climate scam was a scam — and if they don’t then they are insane. Even Bill Gates admitted it — they know everything they were taught in our great post-modern learning was hokum far worse than the reputed lie about George Washington and the Cherry Tree (which turns out not to have been a lie at all) but they still want to believe. It’s like someone drowning, clutching at straws.
And then there was this yesterday: About the population of China. (For the X-iled here.) And one of you who isn’t a dumb ass came back with “Well, I believe it is like a third lower, but that number is too low.”
I didn’t snort giggle, and notice I’m not naming him, because it’s such a fricken human reaction. But I’m grinning now typing this because: HOW DOES HE KNOW? Why would a third less sound plausible, but a quarter of the announced number NOT sound plausible? Russia, it turned out, had quite a minuscule population, and falling fast, when the dropping curtain revealed its ravaged visage. And as we just found out its military capability is a joke. (No, stop, they haven’t been fighting the world. They’ve been fighting UKRAINE whom we gave some old equipment. Yes, sure, Europe gave them military equip– Okay I can’t type the rest of that sentence. Laughing too hard.) But they postured and strutted like they had this huge population and all these military aged men in the eighties…. which they didn’t.
So, why would China be different? Note even the video assumes the CITY reported population is correct. Which is funny since I know many AMERICAN cities pull those numbers from a– air.
The truth is no one knows nothing. There SHOULD be a way to calculate an approximate population and therefore population growth/fall from the consumption of water and such per county or county equivalent. Look, if Dan ever retires, I’ll probably push the project on him (in self defense.) I mean during Covid he made a program to pull numbers of those hospitalized with Covid at that level, which is how we found Kansas City enacted enhanced protocols, including mandatory masking with 2 hospitalizations. Two. (We were driving by when they freaked out, so we looked it up.) But unless one of you is retired and wants to play with that (And you’ll be limited to those countries that are online at that) it’s going to be pretty hard to establish. You’d think intelligence agencies worth spit would already be doing this stuff, right?
What we do know is that the countries that benefit from large populations report massive populations with robust growth, while the ones who have nothing to gain from such things say “We have a population, yeah, but people just aren’t making babies fast enough to keep it up.”
The problem is that bureaucratic states NEED to know. And since they can’t get information, they get BAD lies. And then use them to put the boot on everyone’s neck. It’s a bad thing.
So, as the old greeting goes — what do you know?
Not much. I used to know a lot, but all of it turned out to be wrong.
Your turn.

























































































































