Interesting Times

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Tomorrow is likely to be one of the more interesting — and possibly most difficult — day in several years.  So in anticipation of that, I’m writing this post on Sunday night, so maybe I won’t forget half of it and wander off, as I’m wont to do.

Yes, it’s entirely possible that’s what happened to the vignettes yesterday.

To compound it all, while personal life keeps being interesting (nothing really horribly bad, so far, just one “emergency” after another.  Nothing final. Yet. (Knocks on head.)) there is the fact my country has — from my perspective — lost its mind.

Look, guys, I’m not trying to be contrary. I’m really, really not. But I am incapable of not asking questions, when things make absolutely no sense whatsoever to me.

So, for instance, there’s this article:  Coronavirus: China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17.

And my mind goes: uh…. so, closing to travel in — when was it? January? — is kind of interesting, but a) it would already be all over. b)remember that nasty cold we all had?

A friend asked about Italy and Iran. And why they hadn’t shown problems earlier, if this was loose in the world from November.

Well…. You know, the US probably has more contact with China than any other place in the world except Africa.  And Iran…. well, who knows when it started there? If I remember up till mid January, they were still trying to shoot people who don’t like government by mullah.  Can you trust the news that come out of there?  Beyond the fact that it was when we closed travel that they started LICKING shrines to prove their religion would save them from the virus… or something.

As for Italy…. I don’t know? Maybe it took that long to reach a place with an elderly enough population that it overcame the health system.

Oh, yeah, and that health system…. yes, it’s very well rated by the WHO. The problem is that one of the ways that the WHO rates systems is by “Universal access” (by which they mean universal insurance. No one can convince them that if you don’t have insurance or money you still get treated in the US. Part of it is understandable, because, you know, in Europe if you don’t have your government card, you need to have a form from another government to get treated.  (At least when I went abroad, I had papers drawn up, so I could be treated in case of emergency. Note this was before the EU. Will be different now.)  And single payer.  So, by those accounts, Italy — particularly that region — is sitting pretty.  However they seem to have something around 5x fewer beds in ICU per 100000 people than we do.

Besides having an older, more gregarious population, etc. etc.  Also, FYI, this is being circulated as a joke, but has anyone considered it’s the type of crazy thing aged boomers would actually do, while the younger people would go “nah, brah, we’re cool”, where their premier? president? (Whatever the heck they call their figurehead in those parts) had a campaign anti-racism in which he told people to hug a Chinese immigrant?  Apparently, btw, for strange tax incentive reasons there are Chinese nationals that have small shops all over the EU…  It’s also entirely possible that these people all went home for New Year and brought the funhappy virus back.

The point of all this is that I’m still convinced I had it, Jan and Feb (and seem to be over it, but into a major case of stress-induced autoimmune attack) so bad that I had to get a refill on my asthma inhaler for the first time in a year.  And I don’t think I’m the lone ranger. I think a lot of people here had it.  And survived it.

I think most people who aren’t already desperately ill/elderly/compromised will survive it, in fact, with minimal distress. (Okay, maybe not minimal. It is a truly nasty cold/flu thing, the worst of it being that it won’t stop coming back, so you never know when you’re actually well. It also can leave you weakened for other infections, which can do horrible damage.  So, as always, after a viral infection, watch yourself.)

And I think it’s all through the nation. I told you, and I hold to it that if testing became widespread, there would be a panic, because it would be everywhere.  I still think it’s everywhere.  I’m starting to wonder if the hold up on the tests — besides the fact that they’re apparently less accurate than normal tests — is because the government/administration/health services know that and are waiting till most of the people are OVER the infection before they test.

Anyway, among the questions that bother me: What about Africa? I know people that have family and friends there.  I have yet to hear that there is massive distress/death/illness there.  And guys, if you don’t realize most of Africa is now a Chinese colony…..

What about India and Pakistan?  I actually have fans in both, and fans who have families in both. No widespread panic.

One of the possibly funnier things this weekend, was Mexico “closing” the border with us for fear of COVID-19.  Not to mention ISIS issuing a travel advisory against the Wu-Flu.

But behind the comedy there is something very real.

Part of our reason for panicking is that China obviously panicked and closed most of their economy down because of this virus.

If they didn’t have massive mortality why would they do it?

Well…. you see…. It’s China. Expecting straight up rationality from China is not a good bet. Yes, they are motivated by money, but some of the things they do with/for money are more symbolic than real. See for instance their ghost cities.

It’s entirely possible it suited China to use the virus — which would be worse there for environmental reasons — as an excuse to conduct wide-scale purges. We KNOW that their numbers are completely insane and not real….

But would they shut down their economy to do this?  I don’t know. And neither do you.  Again, what other country in the world would build entire ghost cities that no one can live in, or would live in as a sort of symbol for investments, instead of real investments?  “It’s China” is as good an explanation as any.

Okay, but what about other Asian countries getting hit?  Well…. South Korea seems to have coped pretty well.

What about Italy?

What about Italy? They have the most aged population in the world, a touchy-feely culture, and a medical system that welcomes the chance to “triage” senior citizens out of existence.  So– what about Italy? Honestly a bad flu hitting a large number all at the same time could have that exact result without the hype.

And you do realize that other countries are now looking at us and going “The US has to be lying. They wouldn’t shut down their country and take that hit to the economy for so few dead.”

Which means that’s how the insanity spreads.  Well, that and because you know the idiot press abroad actually believes OUR idiot press who is trying Wiley Coyote like to get Orangemanbad with a virus from Acme.  You can tell that from the gleeful articles, like the Atlantic proclaiming that the Trump presidency is over. (What? Again???)

Mexico and Isis aren’t just been classless loons. Well, classless as usual, but not loons. They really think the West must have this much worse than anyone else by the way we’re behaving.

What is lost in all this is the obvious populist struggles against the international left and its allied Mullahs: the Hong Kong protests, the Iranian revolt, what could have been the echoes of Brexit throughout the EU, and the fact that our socialist-lite party is a giant clown car in the middle of a dumpster fire.

The press has successfully muted all that, and the attempts to depose Hillary under oath, and the smelly bilge coming out about the attempted coup against the president (coup by impeachment. I’d say it was clever if it weren’t crazy) with the complicity of the media, and the various crazy things the left has been up to for three years, all underneath a blanket of “We’re all going to DIIIIIIIIEEEEEE.”

Meanwhile the crazy totalitarians are all over, saying how this shows we need a single payer health care (of course. That’s if we want to be triaged out of existence), how we need a stronger central government, how we need martial law and internal passports.

And it’s giving EVERY country a chance to close down and deal with “internal problems”, i.e. internal dissension, before it topples the self-proclaimed elites.  And no, we’re not immune. Yes, I’d trust Trump to turn it against them in the end, but right now he’s something of an hostage. He has to go along, at least to an extent, to calm the panicked/stampeding populace.

So…. what I think is happening is that we’re destroying our economy and ultimately the economy of the world for what will amount to maybe 10 to 15k deaths in the US.  Which I’m informed is a MILD flu season.  There are businesses that will never recover, our debt will skyrocket, there will be people who are going to go through dire times.  Far far in excess of 10 to 15k people are going to suffer badly for this.

And they’ll try to say it’s because we quarantined, just as they said that the Y2K bug wasn’t as destructive because “we took care of it.”  Guys, I knew programers working in that at the time. It was NEVER going to be that destructive. Inconvenient and clunky, sure. End of civilization? Not a chance.  But hey…. Great panic was had by all.

In many ways, and for many bureaucracies not to mention the left and its attached media, this is a test run for how badly they can stampede us, and how much of our liberties they can steal under the cover of some “emergency.”

My question is — if I’m right, and this all blows over and the elephant gives birth to a mouse, what then?

Are we going to allow the media to continue to take charge of our country’s psyche, like three terrorists with boxcutters taking over an airliner?

Or are we going to learn from the experience and next time — there WILL be a next time, I guarantee — they try to do this, we beat them black and blue, tie them up with belts and stuff them in the overhead luggage compartment?  Metaphorically speaking?

Because I hate to tell you this, but 2016 was not the only Flight 93 Election This upcoming one, and probably the next three or four are all Flight 93 elections. If you let the people bent on the gleeful destruction of Western civilization and indeed all civilization take over, you’d better be ready to shoot your way out of the Gulag they’ll create.

So — if this all proves to be much ado about nothing, what are you going to do to ensure it won’t happen again?  How do you keep the laser-pointer distracted public from forgetting all of this?  And how do you make sure this is not all used to increase power over the individual?

Build over, build under, build around.  Refuse to cave in to the madness.  Only ruminants get stampeded.

 

Vignettes by Luke, Mary Catelli and ‘Nother Mike and Book Promo

*Sorry to be so late.  Someday maybe I’ll share the story of these last few weeks. Nothing bad has happened, at least not yet, but there are several things worrying me, mostly things I can do nothing about. They’ll either turn out well, or they won’t. They are actually already decided and completely out of my hands. And I’ll find out about most of them over the next week, some others over the next couple of months. There is nothing so designed to drive a person with imagination insane.  I spend long hours doing nothing, but I know my subconscious is spinning like a hamster on a wheel. This is exhausting and unfortunately with nothing achieved to go with the exhaustion. Ah well, this too shall pass. And maybe I need to learn this: patience and that I can’t control everything. Or really, much of anything. Even when it matters desperately.  Yes, I DID in fact say it’s another d*mn learning experience.  Meanwhile for the next month, forgive me the occasional lateness and more than usual strangeness. As well as occasional bad temper, please.- SAH*

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Book Promo

*Note these are books sent to us by readers/frequenters of this blog.  Our bringing them to your attention does not imply that we’ve read them and/or endorse them, unless we specifically say so.  As with all such purchases, we recommend you download a sample and make sure it’s to your taste.  If you wish to send us books for next week’s promo, please email to bookpimping at outlook dot com. If you feel a need to re-promo the same book do so no more than once every six months (unless you’re me or my relative. Deal.) One book per author per week. Amazon links only. Oh, yeah, by clicking through and buying (anything, actually) through one of the links below, you will at no cost to you be giving a portion of your purchase to support ATH through our associates number. That helps defray my time cost of about 2 hours a day on the blog, time probably better spent on fiction. ;)*

FROM SARAH A. HOYT: WITCHFINDER.

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(Yes, I’m fixing the widget on the side, which means I might as well push this.  It’s the prequel to Witch’s Daughter.)

In Avalon, where the world runs on magic, the king of Britannia appoints a witchfinder to rescue unfortunates with magical power from lands where magic is a capital crime. Or he did. But after the royal princess was kidnapped from her cradle twenty years ago, all travel to other universes has been forbidden, and the position of witchfinder abolished. Seraphim Ainsling, Duke of Darkwater, son of the last witchfinder, breaks the edict. He can’t simply let people die for lack of rescue. His stubborn compassion will bring him trouble and disgrace, turmoil and danger — and maybe, just maybe, the greatest reward of all.

FROM AMIE GIBBONS: Psychic Overboard: An SDF Paranormal Mystery Novella.

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It’s anything but a pleasure cruise.

Ariana Ryder’s barely had her powers for three months when she takes a cruise with some girlfriends, and one serious frienemy, for their last college Christmas break.

But when she gets a vision of zombies descending on the ship, a bitchy girl becomes the least of her problems.

Now, all she’s got is one brave bartender, a stowaway flying carpet, and her wits to fight the zombies and save hundreds of innocents trapped onboard.

FROM DENTON SALLE:  Thawing Hearts.

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Vanessa only wanted to do her job as head nurse and walk her dog. Not interested in love. Guys were just users.
Then that cowboy Nick turned up. Attraction sizzled. Winter got awful hot.
Burned before, can she trust her heart this time?
A sweet romance where love surprises everyone.

FROM MACKEY CHANDLER:  Paper or Plastic?

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Roger was medically discharged after his service in the Pan Arabic Protectorate, cutting off his chosen career path early. He is living in rural Sitra Falls, Oregon trying to deal with hyper-vigilance and ease back into civilian life.
(Updated edition 11/2016)

FROM MARY CATELLI:  Sword and Shadow.

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A short story of magic and reunions.

At long, long last. . . .

For five long years, Sanchia has held the lands of her husband alone, while he fought in the desperate war against malign shades. Much will change when he returns.

Especially because he brings the magical sword, found in the mountains, with him. And, it turns out, other things follow.

FROM PAM UPHOFF:  Freshmen (Wine of the Gods Book 50).

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Diamond has made it into the Directorate School, but what does a penniless freshman do over the summer? Get together with her best buddy and get a summer job with the Department of Magic, of course. Then there are a few minor problems. Clothes, someplace to stay, sexy men who think a sixteen year old is a child . . . oh, and a major instability in the Multiverse is threatening to destroy the permanent transdimensional gates. But that not her problem. Right?

FROM ALMA BOYKIN: Furiously Familiar: Familiar Tales Book 9.

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Ah, the holiday season. Peace, quiet, rest, and . . . were-creatures?

The perfect Halloween and Christmas gift for a pair of shadow mages? A fat holiday pay-check and no excitement. Lelia Chan and her fiancé survived enough excitement already for the year. Unable to work magic, André needs time to rest and recover. Lelia just wants to survive the goth sales rush of Halloween through Christmas.

But a young man looking for a were-wolf belt leads Lelia and her Familiar Tay onto a dark and deadly road.

Winter brings darkness and shadow. Evil also walks the long nights, stalking innocents. Evil also watches Lelia, patient, waiting . . .

UPDATE: Yes, yes, I did in fact completely forget the vignettes. Which will give you some insight into how strange things are out here.

Chapter Might be Tomorrow

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Sorry, we were taking care of a bunch of things as our state shuts down around us because our math-retarded and panicking governor has ordered no more than 250 people anywhere at the same time.  I think he has no idea how many 250 people actually are. Also, frankly, sure, 250 people in a small room could be a danger (of someone catching a bad cold which if they’re stupid enough to expose themselves while they have other risk factors could kill them, yes (and I say that as someone with risk factors.)) 250 people in … oh, the Denver art museum?  I don’t think in anything but free days or special, limited-time exhibits (for things people actually want to see, not installations and performance art) we’ve ever run into more than 3 other people PER ROOM.  And social distance is very distant indeed.  But hey, 250 people sounded okay to Polis. It’s probably the maximum people he sleeps with per day, or something.  And totalitarians got to totalitarian.

This is going to destroy restaurants, hotels, anyone who depends on touristic income (a lot of people in CO) etc. etc. etc.  Of course the media is amplifying the reports of job losses already, because they think this helps their cause of taking down the economy.

Who knows? It might. I just wish people with buy tulips. It’s less harmful.

Never mind.

I realized today we’re now one of those countries where the other countries in the world are going “well, if they only have under a 100 deaths, why are they shutting down like this? There has to be more deaths they’re hiding.” And thus the panic spreads. I mean, other countries believe US media.

Which is what has driven this insanity from the beginning.

I’m going to lay down a marker for total deaths from the Covid-19 virus in the US somewhere between 7 and 15k. IOW, bad flu season, and mostly the groups affected by the flu. (NOT that the media will tell you that. Instead they’ll talk about plague-level mortality and try to convince us those numbers are terrible.)

I’m going to lay down a marker for the deaths and illnesses from the economic disruption caused by the panic being AT LEAST ten times that, and that’s just the ones we can count, not the second, third and fourth order effects.

I hope the major media lives to know they burned what remained of their scant credibility on this.

And I’m praying that when all is said and done, people know who was responsible: the left and the media in their frenzy to get Orangemanbad.  I’m not betting on it mind you, because people are stupid and might very well decide they’re unemployed/broke because — as those nice talking heads say — bad Trump caused this.

Keep in mind that when I say this about the US I’m not saying it about the rest of the world: where, never mind lies and statistics, health care is FAR worse, and social contact FAR more frequent and population IN GENERAL older (And the places it’s not the hygiene is appalling, so….).  The rest of the world is going to hurt, very hard.  Unfortunately because of our media induced panic, we won’t be in a position to help. (Insert shrugging emoji. Oh, well.)

Meanwhile, those of you stuck with kids at home, don’t forget The Teaching Company.  If you’re not in CO and your library system HASN’T closed, you might be able to grab some. If it’s history, view them first, or view them with the kids to mitigate the spin.

And if you can get in — they’re small and only have so much time — I can’t recommend the Lukeion Project enough for the subjects that used to constitute “A Classic education.”
Younger son loved the courses he took through them and has retained a fascination with Greek and Greek history.

AND there are a number of companies offering free access to their “learn at home” things too. So if your kids are at home, don’t let them waste their time and drive you insane. Make them learn. Heaven knows, they’ll learn more than at school.

Or if you’re home, and wondering if your job will survive, maybe you can access some of those and not think about it too hard.

Other than that, join me in a gigantic ARGH over the over-blown panic.

Note, I’m not saying that people at risk shouldn’t self-isolate/people who live with people at risk shouldn’t self-isolate, etc etc.  I THINK our fight should have been a massive campaign aimed at those people, keeping them safe, making sure they don’t suffer economically or educationally.

But hey, such targeted efforts at getting people to self quarantine — yeah, I know a lot would fail. You think this won’t? You can’t mother adults and some of them WILL be stupid — would be more effective.  But they wouldn’t take down Orangemanbad, or destroy the safety and prosperity of our country. So, for that media that’s a hard no, I guess.

 

 

A State of Madness

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There is an appeal to insanity, a certain joy in letting go and joining the howling.

The Mass Media which had found they’d lost their power when trying to lead us in the paths they thought rational, have discovered they can still scare us.  This makes them very happy, and has convinced them that they will soon have us voting for whom they want us to, by the power of stampeding.

I find myself in the position of an outsider, staring at the madness going on around me, and wondering what the heck everyone is doing and why.  And why everyone keeps howling and running around and insisting on being scared, even if they really aren’t. (And yes, I know what I speak of.)

I’ve been accused of being “superior” and of “priding herself on being rational” for not joining the panic fear.  I am in fact very afraid, just not of what the rest of the people seem to be afraid of.  Also, I don’t think I’m more rational than anyone else, in general. I mean, I do try to arrive at my opinions by thought but I am as much subjected to emotions as the rest of you. Probably more.

So why am I standing aside and staring, round eyed with horror, as everyone runs around as if they were preparing for a hurricane crossed with the black death?

1- I’m a depressive.  It goes without saying I’m a natural pessimist. Those of you who are staring at me as if I grew a second hand are not my closest friends. Those are nodding. They’ve talked me out of “the sky is falling” more times than I dare mention.  I think Dorothy who comments here often has a script entitled “Get Sarah NOT to kill herself now.”

So, why does this make me step back and stand aloof?  Well, I’m used to reality-check myself. If I weren’t, I’d have committed suicide in my twenties.  I panicked before you guys had even heard much about this.  And then I reality checked: the difference in cultures, (more on that later) the difference in our medical establishments and the way health is handled, the difference in populations (and that too). THE FACT NO ONE KNOWS THE NUMBER OF INFECTED, ONLY THE NUMBER OF AFFLICTED. And even so the deaths in other countries, while worrisomely high are NOT black death and ending civilization numbers. Particularly given the ages it impacts.

2- The fact that the media is obviously, insanely, gleefully trying to stampede us. And that I see the strings.

Look, as a writer I KNOW that the easiest emotion to evoke in your audience is fear/horror.  This is why many a beginning writer first finds success in those modes.  It is an easy emotion to create, it appeals to the most primitive part of the brain.  Mostly it relies on repetition, exaggeration and pushing worst-case-scenarios.

Which is exactly what the media is doing. I have absolutely no idea how many people have died right now, in the US of the Wuhan flu.  I can tell you, though that the number is ridiculously small for the panic we are seeing.  And most of these people had direct contact with a foreign source of infection.

Note I’m not saying it’s not a bad flu, or that it’s not going to create issues on its own.  The very fact that other countries will be much, much harder hit will cause issues in a world with interconnected economies. BUT what we’re doing is making those effects worse, far worse. And “let’s shut down the country” is not anything to stop this flu. Not really. There are rational measures, but none of these are being taken, and instead everything is being done that will make the crisis worse, if it gets bad (and no, I’m not blaming the president. This is a media driven show and he has to conform to the script or be destroyed in the heat of the moment. But dear Lord. NONE of this is rational!)

ALSO I have seen the media encourage panics all my life. NOT ONE OF THEM HAS TURNED OUT TO BE WELL FOUNDED. NOT ONE.  Now, even a blind squirrel can find a nut, and maybe they’ll  eventually pick up their little “the world is ending sandwich boards” for something that really proves lethal and dangerous. But I doubt it. Knowing how they perceive the world, and what they were indoctrinated with, they routinely think real danger — radical socialism! — is peachy-keen and will bring about paradise and that completely rational things — killing a terrorist in Iran — will bring about the end of the world.

So, I’m not saying when the media goes into one of their frenzies they’re ALWAYS wrong.  I’m saying if they told me brushing my teeth was good for my health, I’d spend the next 3 days finding studies on health and tooth brushing.

When evaluating information, minding the source is ALWAYS a good idea.

3- People aren’t treating it as if this were a real threat.  No, seriously. The media has got through to the back brain and panicked people, THERE, but the rational ape knows this is not really so.  So, while the dino brain runs around screaming and getting into fights over toilet paper — toilet paper is not made in China. How the heck this got crazy all over the world, I don’t know — the ape brain is going about its normal business.

This was illustrated for me by a friend who said her parents are losing their minds with panic….  but are planning to go to brunch with friends on Sunday.

These people are not at all irrational. The panic-suit is needed so the panicked and crazy with fear people don’t turn on you. However, you KNOW it’s not real.  YOU KNOW.

Which is in some blog (legal insurrection?) someone mentioned that people are preparing for Wuhan Flu was though it were a hurricane.  No, seriously. Yes, I’ve heard it, and you have too “If we all die, who is going to keep the lights on/the gas flowing/etc etc etc.”

Look at the demographics of the people dying. These are not likely to be your linemen, your power-plant operators.  They JUST AREN’T.  Unless our government goes ape-shit (not out of the possibilities, mind you, with the media going nuts) and decides to start willy nilly welding us into apartment houses as in China (how they’ll manage that, since most of us don’t live in apartment houses, I don’t know!) I don’t see the lights going out. Also, as I understand it, a lot of these are automated now. Lights, water, etc. The reason they fail in storms is being overwhelmed by…. well, the storm.  A virus is not going to run around taking down powerlines.

What people are buying is equally crazy, and it’s preparing for weeks (months?) without power.  Which is highly unlikely in the circumstances. As is running out of water. As is…. well, running out of bleach wipes, honestly, unless you’re like me and always use quantities of them so you can clean quickly.

None of the things people are panic-buying makes any sense. NONE. They’re acting like they expect a storm, or Godzilla to come through.

This is the sign of a completely irrational panic.

REAL panic would have people holing up at home with enough food for a month or two, after which this will have blown over one way or another.

Oh, and I was highly amused yesterday to find that despite the cancellation of schools, several local associations are offering early summer camps for while your kids are home for spring break “and beyond.”  I bet you can find them in your area too.

That’s not REAL panic. That’s cosplaying panic stimulated by the madness of the crowds.

4- Add to that that I’m always a little apart, a little different. No, I take no particularly pride in this, it just is.

This is partly my background, the fact I’ve lived in many countries and realize that they are not in fact “just like us” or “have a first rate medical system” (For EUROPE — snort, giggle.) Or whatever.

And partly the fact that born under national socialism and raised under international socialism I treat the news as a scrying means. They’re not the real truth, though you can find it in their entrails sometimes.

NOW WHY I AM IN FACT GETTING SCARED:

1- This panic reaction is entirely wrong.

I don’t mean just that we’re preparing for the Wuhan-flu-hurricane that will down power lines.  I mean something FAR more intrinsic:

We should be concentrating on protecting people AT ACTUAL RISK.  You know, the elderly and infirm. (And btw, why is obesity on the list of risk factors, other than the fact the west is obsessed with it as a cardinal sin.  Sure, it’s a risk factor for ALL SORTS OF THINGS, but obesity BY ITSELF doesn’t damage your lungs, or put you at a higher risk of flu/colds.  That alone tells me this is insanity. Now obesity can be a co-morbidity with things that damage your lungs, such as I gained a ton of weight when my auto-immune/asthma was out of control and I was continuously on prednisone, but trust me on this, living in a village where people died of trifling little colds, being too skinny was more of a risk than being too fat.)

IF we were being rational, all the media and the health services would be saying “If you’re under fifty and in mostly good health, don’t come running to ER or annoy your doctor because you might have this. Come to us only if you are in actual respiratory distress, not before.”  The public health people would be saying “If you have a relative in a nursing home, DO NOT VISIT.  JUST DON’T till we have a handle on this.” Because, social isolation beats being dead, honestly. They might promote things like facetime to talk to your relatives.  Oh, and they would be prioritizing testing AND isolation for anyone — medical personnel, relatives, etc — treating or looking after those people at risk.

THAT would be the rational and sane thing to do.  We’re not doing it. This “everyone is going to die screaming” panic is only going to make it harder to look after those at risk.

It’s almost like they WANT those people to die. And yes, that’s paranoia and the idiots are not that savvy.

2- Now Trump is standing astride the economy hitting it with bags of money.

It didn’t work under Obama, and it won’t work under Trump.

I do understand why he’s doing it.  But you know what would be better? “If you’re young and healthy, get out of your basement and go the frack to work.”

The country shut down yesterday afternoon. For an illness that impacts MOSTLY those over 65. We closed the schools and colleges. This as I have pointed out might not be entirely bad. Hell, you know, the kids probably learn more at home playing video games.  But we also shut down everything else.

It’s find if you can telecommute, but as someone pointed out in the comments, that a fraction of the population.  I don’t know. In the US we might be up to 50%. It’s certainly not everyone. And there are a lot of people paid by the hour who are out of work for the duration, and whose places of employment, from restaurants to stores to amusement parks might not recover.

I’m not a sports fan — to be fair, I’m too ADD to sit through games — so to me the shutting down of sports events means nothing but there are small businesses who already took loans to sell food or whatever at parades and sports events, who are staring ruin in the face.

The country is taking a MASSIVE economic hit where it’s real — not the stock market, which will come back — to protect children, the young, and the early middle aged from an illness that as far as anyone can tell has negligible effect on them. Probably less than the annual flu has.

Meanwhile, we’re creating economic situations and social situations which will make caring for the most vulnerable and at risk — to this flu and everything else — almost impossible.

3- The world is going to hurt. The world is going to take a hit like you wouldn’t believe.

I suspect Italy is the “best case scenario” for most Latin countries. The fact that I have elderly relatives in one of them doesn’t fill me with wonder and happiness.

And here is where cultural factors come into effect, things I don’t think even Americans who have traveled are aware of.

Early in this, a friend made some mention of Chinese men peeing in public, and said maybe they learned it from American college students. And I paused and went AHAHAHAHAHAH. No.

Peeing in public might be the default mode for the human male.  When I was little I had penis envy because my little male friends didn’t have to go in to pee, and lose their place in the game. (Yes, I know there are implements. Six year old me DIDN’T though.) BUT it’s not just a childhood thing. Always with the caveat that the Portuguese are more socially conscious now and this is reduced (but not stopped. I see at least a couple every time I’m over.)  I grew up with males peeing wherever they felt like it. Find a convenient wall, pee against it. Even if the wall is made of glass and someone on the other side is staring at you in horror (it was a phone booth. Dan and I were in it, calling my parents.)  I had to explain to my husband not to touch anything from about waist level down, including walls, light poles, etc.

Also public bathrooms in Portugal (and France, when I was there) are generally far less clean than in the US. The closer comparison would be porta-potties in downtowns infested with druggies…. and even then.  Even in decent restaurants in Portugal, I warn people going to the bathroom to take toilet paper AND soap (and usually have those in my purse to lend. Too many situations of not having either to hand.) as they’re not refilled nearly as often as they’re here. I’d be shocked if Italy is any different.

BUT there are other seemingly innocuous things that put them at higher risk.  Seriously, I’d forgotten about this — I don’t go out and meet strangers much when I visit my family — until my son reminded me: the kissy face.

I’m serious and this is why Latin countries will be at a greater risk: they kiss. They kiss A LOT.  Okay, not the guys, at least in Portugal. I mean they don’t kiss each other. Unless they’re related, and then often they do. But if there’s a female involved in any social interaction? She gets kissed by everyone else, male and female, INCLUDING STRANGERS SHE’S MEETING FOR THE FIRST TIME.  Kisses at leave taking are also not unusual.  In church the “kiss of peace”?  It’s a kiss if there’s a female involved. If you’re a woman, you just got kissed by ten/twenty strangers.

Now these are face-kisses, but if you think they don’t carry a greater risk than a reluctant hand shake (in times of real danger of infection followed by hand sanitizer) you aren’t thinking.  And of course, at least for churches most of the attendance in Europe is over 60.

Then let’s talk social distance. I’ve lived in the US west for close on thirty years. Our social distance is “Ya’ll stay six feet away and shout, okay? That’s great.”  Okay, that’s probably exaggerating, but not by much. Three to four feet “distance” between individuals isn’t rare.

When I fly East, like for Liberty con, I feel the closing in as social distance becomes two feet. People are going by way too close to me. I want to sing “don’t stand so close to me.”

AND….. the Eastern US is still “freakishly large social distance” compared to Europe. And I understand Asia (never traveled there) is even closer.  I wonder how since I often made my way through Porto by virtue of my left shoulder, at busy times. But there it is.

Social distance. how many strangers do you rub up against or close as makes no difference in the course of your day?

The US is different in this because we were a fairly young culture when the germ theory of disease became known. It informed a lot of our culture. BUT in Europe (and Asia) the rational knowledge of the theory is overlaid on MUCH older structures. It doesn’t percolate so well. You might not want to kiss your brother’s work-colleague, but how will that affect his career? So you do.

Which brings us to another point: transportation.  Most Americans — much to the horror of the left — do transportation in GLORIOUS and MAJESTIC solitude.  At WORST, if my entire family is going out? There are five people in the car.

In Europe the RULE is public transport. And in cities most public transport is CROWDED.  I know this will be hard to believe considering how often I’m very ill, but it was far worse when I used public transport even though I was much younger.

Also their medical systems are mostly government controlled or regulated to such an extent that as in all government-created enterprises keeping appearances is elevated above treating the sick.  So they will LOOK like excellent health systems. The reality appalls almost every American who experiences it. (There are always exceptions and some people get lucky.)

So why does this terrify me?  Europe was already in an extremely precarious position. I think they’re going to lose people at “youngish” ages from this, say 50 on. Which means they’re going to lose a lot of the highly trained individuals that keep their tech and society going.  And yes, this will be affecting us.

What we SHOULD  in sanity be doing is figuring out how, and be ready to have other systems to go on line when Europe buckles. Because Europe WILL.

Yes, closing flights from Europe is PROBABLY rational. For one, Chinese were still coming through Europe (duh.)

BUT instead of hitting the economy in the face with bags of money and closing our economy down for the duration, perhaps we should be considering what factories/services/etc we’re going to need here if Europe (and a lot of Asia, though note the panic is far less there) goes dark.

And this is why I’m staring in horror and wonder while the mad hatter pours tea on the mouse’s head.  This is not just crazy. This is counter productive. ALL of it pretty much, except for the closing of flights is completely insane and will hurt more than the virus does.

At the back of my mind, too, there is a little voice saying “And what happens when after all this is said and done, there are maybe a hundred thousand people who die, and those from the oldest demographics. What then?”

The press should be aware that the next easy emotion to stimulate after horror is anger.

I know, I know, they think they can pin it all on orangemanbad, and that this will not only prevent the righteous beating they took in Great Britain, but will husher in their zombie-candidate-for-socialism (third term of Obama. Sure we want that, right?) and ruin.

I’m not ready to say they won’t succeed.  What I’m going to say is that if they succeed it will be a brief victory.  We have all seen them with their masks off, trying to bring about the death and destruction of the west, all in the name of getting power back.

They should consider that when it proves everything they said was a lie, including “the” and “and” and that the panic they stoked was EXACTLY the wrong panic and caused us to do the wrong things, people are going to remember.

May G-d have mercy on their souls.

 

 

 

Unintended Consequences

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Unintended consequences are the bane of social engineers. They are why the “Scientific” and centralized method of governance never worked and will never work. (Sorry, guys, it just won’t.)

Part of it is because humans are contrary. Part of is because humans are chaotic. And part of it is be cause like weather systems, societies are so complex it’s almost impossible to figure out what a push in any given place will cause to happen in another place.

This is why price controls are the craziest of idiocies. They don’t work in the way they’re intended, but oh, they work in practically all the ways they’re not. So, take price controls on rent. All they really do is create a market in which housing is scarce, landlords don’t maintain their property AND the only people who can afford to live in cities that have rent control are the very wealthy.

BUT Sarah, you say, aren’t rent controls supposed to make them affordable. Yeah. All that and the good intentions will allow you to go skating in hell on the fourth of July weekend.

Let’s be real, okay? I saw rent control up close and personal in Portugal. Rents were controlled and landlords were penalized for “not keeping the property up”.

In Portugal at the time, and here too, most of the time from what I’ve seen, the administration of property might be some management company, but that’s not who OWNS the damn thing. The owners are usually people who bought the property so it would support them in old age/lean times.

To begin with, you’re removing these people’s ability to make money off their legitimately owned property. And no, they’re not the plutocrats bernie bros imagine. These are often people just making it by.

Second, people are going to get the money some other way, because the alternative is dying. And people don’t want to die or be destitute. So they’re going to find the money. I have no idea what it is in NYC, etc, but in Portugal? it was “key buying.”  Sure, you can rent the house for the controlled price, but you have to make a huge payment upfront to “buy the key.” From what I remember this was on the order of a small house down payment. And if you couldn’t do that, you were stuck getting married and living with your parents.  And if you say “greedy landlords” — well, see the other thing you could do was leave the lease in your will. So the landlord didn’t know if they’d ever get control of their property back, and they needed to live off this for x years (estimated length of life.)  So, that was an unintended consequence. The kind that keeps surfacing in rent-controlled cities in the US.

The same applies to attempts to “help” the homeless.  Part of this, as part of all attempts to “fix” poverty is that the people doing it, usually the result of generations of middle class parents and strives assume the homeless and the poor are people like them.

To an extent, they’re correct. The homeless and the poor are PEOPLE. But culture makes a difference, and culture is often based on class and place of upbringing. And the majority of humanity, judging by the world, might be made to strive but are not natural strivers. Without incentive, most of humanity sits back, relaxes and takes what it’s given.

Look, we’re a scavenger ape species. Sitting back and eating what you have is a good survival trait. Because the tribes of overachievers, who actually went out and hunted might live better, but if they don’t stop hunting when they already have three giant mammoths rotting in the cave, they’re just going to starve next month when there are no more mammoth.  So, given no incentive, humans do not work. Most humans. Yes, some of us are broken. And the incentives changed enough over the last hundred years that the broken ones thrived. But that doesn’t mean most of humanity wants to strive for the heck of striving. (And those of us who do tend to be more neurotic than a shaved cat, to be honest.)

So when you assume that poor people are poor because “they have too many demands” (look up bee sting theory, I covered it, I THINK on this blog) and therefore become overwhelmed, you go in entirely the wrong way and the results are epic and unintended.

Which is why our programs to deal with the poor or worse the homeless mostly create more poverty and homelessness. And the people running it refuse to process the results because “that’s not what should be happening.”

Look, every minimum income that’s been tried results in less productivity, greater poverty (people try to live within the free money, no matter how tight) and just general aimlessness and squalor. But very smart people will keep insisting on them, because it’s not the way THEY’d react to minimum income.

Anyway, so, I’m highly amused with the press’s crusade to make Covid-19 into the black death.

Note that I’m not saying there won’t be deaths.  There is a potential for a high number of deaths particularly mid health care workers and the elderly. As someone who has friends in both groups, and frankly who catches everything that crosses the street and usually catches it twice and really bad cases, I am of course concerned.

But the numbers are not black death. The high estimate, back of the envelope, among friends, if the US goes like the Diamond Princess is around 1 million.

The US is however not likely to go China, or Italy. We just don’t have the same systemic weirdness those countries have. And Diamond Princess is absolutely the worst case scenario.  We’ll probably get a “bad flu season” hit, which is STILL hundreds of thousands.

The panic itself, though, is going to cause damage to the economy and eventually deaths.  Because the economy is not “greed” or “you want money”, it’s how we live. There are going to be people laid off who are stressed and weakened and might die. There are going to be supplies that don’t reach those who need them because of economic turmoil and panic. And all of that — all of that — is goofy. And not needed.

But you see, the press is on the side of the social engineers. They’re trying to engineer panic and ruin, because then they can get the party of the “best people” who “know what they’re doing” in power and — they think, for a stretch goal — get universal health care in too.  So they’re pounding the drum and screaming black death as hard as they can.

For a comparison to how they treated the Swine Flu, which is probably on the same level but hit the young instead of the old, read Lilek’s excellent post.  Only, you know, the Swine Flu it was their precious social engineer in charge, not Orange man bad. So, there was no panic. None.

The problem is the press is…. well… let’s say most members of the 4th estate (Lord, was there ever a more vainglorious self-appellation?) were never as bright as they thought they  were. And it’s not got any better by hiring for political conformity with the social engineer crazy.

I’m going to point out a few things they might have not thought of:

You can’t keep the panic up forever, unless there are body-collection carts making the rounds. You just can’t. You can only inflate the few casualties so long. Sooner or later, people are going to tweak.

And then two things happen: First, they notice that you age, once again, not just lying but being crazy. And you lose a little more of your ability to convince people. Probably well before the election.

People are being stampeded into telecommuting. The thing is, dear media, once that happens, you can’t put it back in the bottle.

For two decades now, telecommuting and distance learning have been perfectly possible and even, frankly, beneficial. What has held it back is managers afraid they don’t know how to manage at a distance, corporations who think mega cubicle farms are a great way to be “important” and a general sense that only us, ne’er do wells, work in our pajamas on the sofa (I’ll have you know I’m wearing a sweatshirt and yoga pants. Never mind.)

If the panic lasts even two months (and the press will ensure it does before it collapses under its own weight) that reluctance to telecommute is going to be blown to hell. For one, once workers taste of THAT fruit, just anecdotally, 90% of them LOVE it. (The other 10% have very annoying children or spouses.)

And in the wake of the financial panic and wobbles, corporations are going to notice that they spend a lot less money when most of the workers work from home. At some point, they’ll also realize that they need much smaller facilities if they need facilities at all. And hey, money.

This will cause all sorts of other things, which I think will lead within two years to an exodus from the big cities everyone has crammed into because it’s where the jobs are.  I think in turn this will lead to a world the social engineers really don’t like.

Other side effects are not going to be pleasing to them, either. I think this ends up killing bookstores. And since that’s the only hold the traditional publishers have on the market… well, wave bye bye, it’s been nice knowing them.

And btw, not everyone is stupid. The difference in how the virus was handled here and in Europe, no matter how much the media screams and hollers, is not going to be centralized government health care looking good.  In fact, it will probably bury the idea once and for all.

And the one thing ALREADY becoming clear is that we can’t afford to do business with totalitarian countries that will lie to us, or to have completely open borders to them. Or really to anyone. You can scream “racist” all you want, but nationalities are not races, and viruses don’t care. The end of this will be sensible border control. Sorry if you won’t like it, media, you brought it on yourselves. You could have treated this like you treated swine flu, and not hurt the economy, but your senseless fury against Orange Man Bad is leading you to all those unintended consequences…. We’ll enjoy them.  We don’t know about you.

Other unintended consequences MIGHT come from the virus itself, including the fact that, apparently, there’s far, far fewer drugs coming in, which is having an interesting effect in our urban fauna.  And who’ll know what the unintended consequences of THAT will be.

Stay calm. The one thing we know is that historically the unintended consequences always bite the social engineers in the butt.

Buy stocks of popcorn.

 

 

Lies and Truths

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We live in a very weird time, in which people don’t even seem to think of lie and truth as things, but instead seem to believe whatever pleases them best, and run with it. Only that explains the abundance of contradictory beliefs the left holds to, and the fierceness they hold to them.

Honestly I think part of it is that the adherents to the self-proclaimed party of science, most of whom have never taken a science class more complex than what I took in 9th grade (if THAT) have read something about quantum and about observations and beliefs influencing the outcome, and don’t realize yeah, sure, this applies at the quantum level (which is smaller than whatever they can imagine) so that, yeah, sure, if you believe that wave is a particle, or whatever, it might just be so. But you can’t — well, they tried — levitate the Denver Mint by the force of your belief. And believing you’re brave at resisting orange man bad doesn’t make you anything more than a nuisance at which the rest of us roll our eyes.

The problem with this primacy of belief over truth — and tell me, how many times have you come across someone who yells back to reasoned facts “well, that’s what I believe. You can’t tell me what to believe!” (Which is true. you can believe all the counterfactuals you wish. There is a term though for believing — wholeheartedly believing — things you know are not true.  It’s called madness. It never ends well) — is that it ends up corrupting people’s morals as well as their minds.

We’re thus treated to the spectacle of the left saying that the COVID-19 will be “Trump’s Katrina.”

Okay, the sheeple (shabbies) are excused from this, but how many people on the left can AVOID knowing that Katrina was in fact nothing to do with Bush?  That it was not a federal disaster, but a local one? That the local people wouldn’t take federal help.  And that, for that matter, a lot of the bullshit going on was highly imaginary. Like the disaster that was the superdome? Mostly memorex created by the TV stations and “news.”

In that sense it tracks pretty well, honestly. I’m tired of watching the left saying Trump should have acted, etc, etc.

Other than blocking flights from China — probably much too late but ahead of everyone else, really — and releasing emergency funds, what part of this is Trump’s to do?

It’s insane to say “We should be more like China” or Singapore, or whatever. First, no, we shouldn’t be more like China, because we don’t even know what China is like, and neither does ANYONE else.  A characteristic of totalitarian regimes is that information is falsified all up the line.  The other countries “doing all this so well” are small countries, and not divided polities with local control.

Which frankly is good. For us. It means that if some local governments mess up, the whole nation won’t be dying.

Screaming “But Trump” is tiresome and just another form of Orange Man Bad.

Are we in for it with COVID-19?

Who the hell knows. I don’t. I don’t think so, and not just because our medicine is way better than China’s, and frankly Italy’s (no, I don’t want to hear it. I really don’t want to hear it. Italy is not much better than Portugal, which means even amazing medical staff is in trouble for lack of funds/machines, etc.)  I also think honestly it was here way before there, and that the results haven’t been THAT lethal, though probably a lot of deaths early on got counted as flu.

But would I be shocked if in two weeks we’re maxed out on ICU and medical personnel are getting very sick? Waggles hands.  Not particularly.  A little.

I’d honestly be surprised if that’s true ALL OVER, but not if it’s true for our big cities, where social distance is non-existent and a lot of the conditions are less than ideal.

I’d  be surprised if the outcomes for anyone under 80 is as bad as in China, but not for over 80, and there are a lot of people over 80. More than most of us realize.

Of course, whatever happens, EVEN if the crisis is only in San Fran, say, the media is going to pound that drum and make it seem like it’s all over the US and stoke a financial panic which WILL kill more people than the flu in the long run.

And perhaps give us a socialist president — you think Biden is different from Bernie? AHAHAHAHAH.  His cabinet would be Obama’s third term. — The only way we get out of that is by shooting our way out. Which I don’t want, if I can help it.

But, it’s all out of my hands. Like so many things are.

When half the nation doesn’t believe objective truth exists, they don’t even realize they’re telling poisonous lies.  And people love themselves a good panic. Particularly with themselves as potential victims.

Hold on to the sides of the boat. The water is going to get rough.

Wash your hands, keep distance if you can. DO NOT PANIC.

In the end we win, they lose.  The question is only how far away the end is.

Of Books, Compassion and Cruelty A Blast From the Past From June 2013

Yesterday I got caught up in a Facebook argument about public libraries and care for the homeless.

Well, I sort of got caught up – sort of, as usual I missed most of it, because a) I was hanging out here with you reprobates b) the time normally devoted to writing was devoted to sleeping.  [Long disquisition on what was going on at the time elided.]

This discussion got me thinking, and btw, you are warned this might be the world’s longest blog post because I’m zombified and therefore can’t write short to save my life.

It started with a fan linking a bunch of us to a site about libraries.  What he said was sort of true of me, though not really.

I have a very odd relationship with libraries.  First, to begin with, unlike most of you, I didn’t fall in love with a public library in childhood.  I didn’t, because there were none.  Portugal has a system of public libraries, and in fact, if you look on line, there is a picture of a very ornate library in Portugal.  When that was making the rounds of the net, all my friends linked me with “wow, you must know that place inside out.”  Well… um… the place was in fact in either Lisbon or Coimbra, which most of the time I was growing up were a tediously long train journey away.  So even had they been libraries as Americans view them, I probably wouldn’t have visited them that often.  And I’ll confess I was, briefly, for a few months, familiar with the Porto branch of the same library system.

The reason I was familiar with it, will explain to you why I wasn’t more familiar and the difference between Portuguese libraries and American ones.  I spent a few months, every free moment after school, in that library tracing the fluctuations of currency through the sixteenth century in Portugal.

See, the libraries in Portugal are repositories of original material – some of it very old.  If you want to do anything that requires primary sources you go to the public library.  The entire system is the equivalent of the section of libraries here devoted to local history and documents.

As in those, you can’t check books out, and quite frankly, you wouldn’t want to.  The few fiction books in there are those considered of historical and/or literary value.

There are of course other libraries, most of those being rather small and confined and private.  Most parish houses have a lending library at least for young people.  A lot of youth clubs have libraries.  Schools from middle school up have libraries.

Unfortunately, it is all tainted by the rather nose-in-the-air attitude that culture is something that’s too good for the common folk and also that the common folk must be protected from “trashy novels.”

With the best good will in the world – and remember I’m the kid who read Thomas Mann at eight simply because I was bored out of my gourd and those were the only books I could get my hands on (in the attic) which hadn’t been read yet.  Same reason I read Camus at 11 – I found myself hard pressed to discover anything in most of those libraries that I wanted to read.  Most of it was moral tracts and improving works, and it was therefore as dusty as it deserved to be.

I think I once found a book about a Portuguese Queen in my High School library which was only half bad.  I “think” because I might have dreamed it.

By the time I’d started tutoring I’d come to the conclusion not the only difference but a considerable one between me and most of the people I tutored was that they’d grown up without fun books.

This was particularly bad when the kids I got were geniuses (most of them were.  Not all) born to families of poor-but-honest-and-definitely-pious peasants.

Portugal is an odd country.  It is said that every Portuguese has a book of poems stowed away somewhere that will never see the light of day.  This is probably true – at least to some extent.  I would be very shocked if the guy up the street who forced his family to live in medieval squalor and farmed by medieval methods had one, but you never know.  Those romantic poets can get weird.

At any rate, most Portuguese will at the very least pay lip service to books.  It was a shock to me when I came to the states and people saw me reading and asked me what I was studying for.  In Portugal a lot of people read in the train, though for working class young men, in my day, that was usually comic books.

However, a certain class of people… let’s call it the wanna-be middle class, views it as their duty to keep their kids – particularly their daughters – from being corrupted with “trashy” stuff.  Portugal being a country with two feet, two ankles and heck, at least up to the chest in the past, “trashy” is anything written in the last hundred years, which hasn’t been given the imprimatur of either “intellectuals” or “the church.”

My family was always weird, in that mom disapproved of books about imaginary stuff (I think younger son takes after her, though he likes the meatier SF and some mysteries.  He prefers books about how things work/worked, and real history and stuff) but dad was addicted to who-dunnits and adventure books (Captain Morgan and Sir Walter Scott were his.)

Dad had spent all his pocket money since he was eleven or so (and this is a man who walked over an hour to school because buses were too expensive) in the used bookshops (known in Portuguese by the rather romantic and I suspect Arab-origin name of Alfarabios.  Normal bookshops were librarias (places containing books.)  I have no idea what Alfarabios means, etymologically, but like bazaar or kiosk it has a romantic taste in the tongue, a suggestion of something exotic and strange.)  Those weren’t very common when I was growing up in Portugal, because culture taints buying used with the same sort of low-class feel as selling your stuff in pawnshops.  But dad was broke, and he had to read.

His library was augmented by inheritances from his grandmother and great grandmother both of which I’m given to understand though nothing of feeding the family on vegetable soup for a week so they could buy the new chapters of the novels they were following.  (These were sold in chapters, with a hole on top, hanging from a loop of string attached to a pole.  The bookseller came through village hawking his wares, and sold novels to people a chapter at a time – they probably couldn’t have afforded a whole book at once.  They sold fun stuff – I think our Sir Walter Scott was originally bought that way – and villagers bought it, and once they had a book, they’d save and send it to be bound up.  This system had ended LONG before my time, but the expression “string literature” for cheap, accessible, exciting adventures stayed in the language.  My dad often teased me with it when I was little and devouring Enid Blyton by the yard.)  Then as my brother and I started reading, we started pooling our birthday and Christmas money to buy paperbacks: science fiction and mystery, mostly.  And since my dad still devoted most of his money to books – it was his secret vice.  Other men blew money away on drink.  He spent it on books – we learned to coordinate and strategize purchases.  This meant, yes, that my brother and I often bought dad the books we wanted to read for his birthday and read them very carefully and wearing gloves before we wrapped them for him.  It meant also that when going to the book fair, which takes place in large cities for a couple of weeks in summer, outdoors, in tents, and where books are usually offered starting at half price (and old stock that was in the back MUCH cheaper) we had to compare lists.  “Okay, I’m looking for this, this and this are they on your list?”  We also would do the first walk then call home and ask the others if they (if they’d gone before) had already bought x y or z.  This was hard learned.  The year I turned fourteen and had some money I’d made (it might have been the year I ran a neighborhood newspaper) and my brother had money from tutoring, we went to the book fair separately and ALL THREE OF US brought home the exact same books, which was a total waste of money.

But, anyway, when I realized a lot of the peasant kids I taught needed more fun books, I began starting libraries or enriching the ones that existed.  I convinced my Portuguese and English teachers to back me up in adding an SF section to the High School library, for instance.  It required them to convince the librarian that translations and science fiction at that could be “worthy”.  It leaned heavily to Bradbury, but I sneaked in some Heinlein under the radar.  I also started lending libraries in two groups I was involved with.  Whether they lasted past my improvement Bob (Heinlein) knows.

Coming to the States was a shock to the system.  First of all, my host family had no books in the house.  None.  I don’t mean to imply they were stupid, they weren’t.  But their entertainment ran to TV and magazines.  I suppose dad had technical books but there was no reading-as-fun.  This was odd even amid neighbors.  Dan’s family down the road always had books lying about.

But just as I started to go on a jag of withdrawal, my host mother said something like “Well, for heaven’s sake, why don’t you go to the library?”  I was still new and didn’t want to be rude, so I didn’t tell mom that I didn’t want that KIND of boring.  Instead, I let her take me to the public library.  And I fell in love.

Books.  Not just fun fiction, but fun non-fiction.  Who knew people would write things like the life of Shakespeare and other history, and books about quasars in ways that common people would want to read them?  (They came to Portugal, too, eventually, but at that time popular non-fiction was news to me.)

Yes, it was sort of like locking a kid in the candy store.  I ended up volunteering at the library because that way they’d trust me to take more books out, and besides, I’d discover stuff I’d never seen before.

Then I went back to Portugal and, shaky from withdrawal and also wanting to keep my English up, discovered that American tourists, bless their wealthy hearts, often abandoned the books they’d brought over to read over summer (understandable, since that meant they had more room for stuff bought cheap in Portugal.)  I’ve read more thrillers and beach romances than I care to admit to, but it kept both the English and the reading bug sharp.

Back in the states, newly wed and frankly broke, I both developed an unhealthy relationship with a used book store called The Bookworm in Rockhill, South Carolina, and I learned to drive PRIMARILY so I could drive to the library.  In Charlotte we routinely borrowed books from three branches, and when I was bed-ridden with Robert, Dan took our biggest three suitcases (the ones we took when traveling to Portugal) down to the library sale, with strict orders to fill them to the top and in the order of SF, Mystery, historical, nonfiction consisting of biographies, history and science.  I think he bought out MOST of the sale and all in those categories.)

Then we moved to the Springs and we were somewhat beyond broke.  I’d also abandoned 2/3 of my books when moving from the Carolinas (truck space) which left me HUNGERING for books.  Yeah, I had the local bookshops free-bookshelf where they put the books they didn’t think they could resell.  I used to go early in the morning, with Robert in a carriage, to snag the most readable stuff.  But there is only so much gothic romance a woman can read.

So I used the library.  We lived downtown, in a student apartment, and the library was thirty minutes walk away.  I used to make that walk every other day and the pouch at the back of the carriage was full of books for the return trip.  The library was also where I sought refuge on weekends, when Dan was watching the kids, to get a little bit of writing done (longhand.  No laptops.)

This was the period where my relationship to the library (practically living there) was the one described in the stuff the fan posted.

When we moved away from downtown that relationship became more distant.  I still did some library sales (it was at one of those I found Dwight Swain) when I was aware they were happening, and I still went to the library when the preliminary hints of an idea started bothering me.  Say “something about Africa.”  This allowed me to read forty or fifty books for free before I decided if the idea worked.

The last time I read the library out of books in one section was … must be 6 years ago (I was homeschooling the kid.  Might have been seven) when I was considering the idea of a series about women of the War of the Roses.

A little earlier, while we were working on the other house to get it ready to sell, I borrowed audio books at the rate of two a day.

But even then it wasn’t as essential as it had been, once upon a time.  I could now find the precise book or books I wanted on Amazon and often very cheap even with shipping.  This became more so with electronic books and the possibility of sampling a lot in the free section.  Also the preliminary reading on some theme or other can be done on line.

So, a year ago I needed to find information on a particular Romanian ruler, whose name evades me now.  I found hardly anything on line – a page or two – and usually just mentions in the books I could get hold of.  So I thought “library.”

My older son and I set off on an expedition.  It will show you the kind of hopeful idiot I am, that I took a shoulder-sack, convinced we’d fill it.

I should have known better.  The last time I tried to WORK at the library – four? – years ago, I couldn’t, because the place was full of homeless AND social workers interviewing them at a volume usually reserved for public speaking in a crowded room without microphones.

But they still had books!

A year ago… not so much.  Oh, there were still SOME books, most of them put in places they shouldn’t be and a lot of them missing that should be on the shelf.  BUT half of the space was taken up with music, games, videos and other things that, last I checked, weren’t BOOKS.

The library was also serving as an informal, ersatz homeless shelter, which made me afraid of going to some of the lower levels and looking for stuff.

I found not one book to check out, not even a tangentially relevant one.  I won’t be going back.  And while I’m sure the suburban libraries are better in terms of not having patrons urinating in the corner, I can check the stock on line and they too seem to be going video/game/music.

However, the festivities on line started with Bill Quick saying that his own library was unusable being full of homeless.  I concurred.

Enter the bleeding heart brigade, saying that if we had better services for the homeless this wouldn’t happen.

Bill immediately pointed out he lives in San Francisco, possibly the city with the BEST homeless assistance services.  And I pointed out that Colorado Springs is known in the region as having some of the best assistance services (many of them private) from soup kitchens to shelters.

We were then accused of being heartless and wanting to sweep poverty and need under the rug.

So…  I know it took me this long to come to the point, but I wanted you to realize what libraries as they used to be in America can mean not just to me but more so to people who have no books at home, and the theory of comparative scale of use.  (Also I’m ill and writing long is much easier than writing short.)

First let’s start with the fact that homelessness as it exists in America isn’t poverty.  In fact part of the problem with it is that it ISN’T poverty.  Look, regardless of what you’ve seen on the movies or tv, most homeless are not families fallen on hard times.  Yes, there are some of those now, but most of those while technically “homeless” aren’t living in your local park.  They’ve just taken over mom and dad’s basement, moved onto a friend’s living room or whatever.  Terrible – I’ve been JUST short of that at least three times in my married life – and humiliating, but NOT “stand in the park and wheedle on yourself.”

90% of the homeless in America and the hard core ones are people with mental health issues, people with drug abuse issues and people who have found they can live without having to do anything for it, and can be “free” and outside society.  I’ve overheard conversations in the park, and I suppose that most of the people who “dropped out” in the sixties are dead, but a lot of them are alive and going from soup kitchen to free clinic, with a bit of begging in between.

Yes, there are entire families in this system, including homeless children – but for them to stay in it, the parents need to have some sort of serious issue.  Otherwise, even if they can’t find work, there is assistance available to get them at least into public housing, which, nightmarish though it is, is not living in the park.

I’m not going to pretend this doesn’t happen to normal families too – see where I came very close to that level and more than once too – but normal families usually tend to bounce back.  They go through a few months of mess and horror, and then they claw back to some semblance of normalcy.  (This might change as our economy dives and programs of necessity get cut.  The ones for the DESERVING poor will be cut first, of course, since they rarely riot.)

The problem with this is that when people get appalled at the conditions the homeless live in and start offering “homeless services” there is an entire network, not just of homeless but of social workers who direct the homeless to the cities with better services.

I swear to you and I’m not even joking that right now there are plenty more homeless on Colorado Springs streets than in Denver, despite the Springs being much smaller.

The Springs also has its soup kitchens and other services downtown and within easy walking distance of each other.

This means downtown businesses are closing, except for bars and restaurants which can control access.  And that the library is of course a place to camp in the cool/warm during the day.

It means more than that.  We moved within easy driving distance of downtown, because when we lived downtown when we first came to Colorado Springs, I used to take walks every day.  When we moved to our little mountain village, without these, I gained ten pounds a year.  I used to love walking downtown, dropping by the deli and the three bookstores (only one left, and it’s MOSTLY a restaurant now) checking out the other little shops which ranged from yarn to weird import crafts.

Now those are gone.  Worse – the last two times I walked downtown alone (i.e. without commanding the muscle, aka older son to go with me) someone FOLLOWED me and I had to employ stuff from my childhood to lose them.  Once it was a large and addled looking male, and yes, he was following me.  And once it was TWO large and addled looking males.  For the icing on the cake – not related to this, but from a blog entry – I clicked on the sex offenders registry.  Yes, I know, a lot of people there are there because someone accused them and was never proven.  Our local one at least has notes on whether it’s accusation, trial or conviction and also whether the crime was against children or adults.

The downtown zipcode is FULL of registered sex offenders who’ve done hard time and who have committed their crimes against adults.  The faces are very familiar from my walks, and yep, one was the guy who tried to follow me.

Which means, if I walk I take the boy with me.  Even then at least once some guys tried to flank us.  You see, the vagrancy laws are not being enforced AT ALL because the city is “compassionate.”

Let’s talk about compassion – most of the shops downtown were mom and pop operations and many had been there since right after WWII.  But when customers are afraid to walk around (and when the stupid meters with requirements you move every two hours make it impossible to park close by and just go around the more popular area, because city planners don’t understand you don’t shop downtown like at the mall) and when you can’t keep homeless from coming in and peeing on your books, the stores either move elsewhere and close.  Which, arguably destroys wealth.

This same “compassion” makes it impossible for women and children to walk downtown in their lawful pursuits.  This same “compassion” makes the library which could help a lot of kids fall in love with books as we did, and meet other people who like books (even if they are reading them mostly online) into a dangerous no-go zone.  This same compassion is emptying the smaller office buildings that don’t have doormen.  The office I rented, which was the only one I could afford, eventually became unusable.  These are the times they are, and a lot of small businesses are going under, so when I moved in the office building was half full.  Only you know how it is…  small businesses, we worked odd hours.  Sometimes when I was there there was only me and two or three other people in a building with forty or so offices.

And then other people started moving out.  I didn’t understand why until the day I was alone on my floor and I came across a clearly homeless guy in the hallway.  I’d seen them there before.  They usually roamed in and roamed out, and you walked past them.  Only this one was… well… feral.  There was no human in the eyes.  I barely got into my office ahead of his jump for me, and then I was stuck there until I was sure he was gone (which took a lot of looking through the bulls-eye) which was about four hours, and the room didn’t have either water or a bathroom (those were down the hall.)  I had the presence of mind to play one of my audio books – with male voices – loud enough to sound like I had a guy in there with me (I talked in between) and he moved off very fast.

After that I didn’t use the office and let it lapse when the rental ran out.  That building is now completely empty and for sale.  Is that compassionate to the owner who is btw an immigrant and not particularly wealthy?

Is it a matter, as someone once preached at me, of my wanting “poverty and deprivation swept under the rug?”

Oh, h*ll no.  If these homeless people were the kind of down at heel families or working-class people the movies depict them as, I’d feel sorry for them, but I would NOT want them swept out of the public view.  Poor people – no matter how much maligned poverty is by being accused of causing crime or whatever – don’t usually try to attack people and rape them, poor people aren’t evil.  They’re just poor.  I know.  I’ve been poor a lot and some of my best friends are poor.

But instead, most homeless are … feral.  The sort of people who don’t recognize the social compact and don’t care about the rules of society.  At best they are insane and unpredictable (read My Brother Ron by Clayton E Cramer, for a look at what many, many of the homeless are like) at worst they are drug addicted and … how do I put this?  Contemptuous of those of us who play by the rules, have jobs, and make an effort for a living.

And that’s the problem.  The problem is most cities and private charities misdiagnose the issue.  They look at their mounting unemployment and they think “we must do something to help these people.”  Heaven knows that’s true and getting worse.

But then comes the non-judgmental gospel of the age, where you can’t judge, and you can’t ask what these people were doing, require that they keep clean, require they see a psychiatrist in order to get food.  No, you can’t do any of that because that would be discriminatory.  So you just give freely and as much as possible.

And the vultures come.

I pity the REAL “homeless due to need” families that have to raised kids in that kind of hell.  They should get help, but they shouldn’t be forced to get it next to sex offenders, chronic drug abusers and people who frankly couldn’t give a d*mn about getting out of that situation and getting better.

And I pity the businesses who have to cope with this invasion by feral humans, supported by other people’s money but not feeling the slightest obligation to other people.  And I pity the children who will never get to experience public libraries or the guidance of a friendly librarian.  And I pity the women and teens who can’t simply take a stroll downtown.  And I pity the owners of downtown buildings who aren’t wealthy enough to hire doormen.  I pity the drug addicted/mentally ill (often a covalent group) who don’t find guidance or help in keeping up with their medications and becoming functional again.

Compassion?  I’m full of it.  But not for those who are feeding the beast of dependence.  Not for those who make it possible for people to live off society but not in it.  Those false bleeding hearts just want to feel good about themselves.

And by being kind to the cruel and parasitical they are much more than cruel to the kind and helpless.

Every Generation

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May I ask whose brilliant idea it was to indoctrinate new generations on the need to have fewer children?

No, no, don’t answer. I’ve read a lot of science fiction written in the mid twentieth century, and I know.  The thinking parts of the culture in the dawn of the current era of abundance had time and leisure to get all panicky about excess population and how we were killing the planet, and a lot of other rather emo nonsense.

Also I went to school shortly after the middle of the twentieth century, and was lectured in every class about how the human race needed to find a way to stagnate…. er… to “keep population the same or reduce it.”

The only good thing about that rank stupidity was that it was marginally smarter than the tripe they pulled on my kids, where they tried to convince the kids to sign agreements they would never reproduce when they were thirteen.

Future generations, if there are any, will stare in awe at our magnificent suicide, and at the strange assumption that because we’d just had a baby boom, future generations would continue to reproduce at the same level…. forever.  Again, I think it was the ease of communication, and the exponential growth of a class that worked with their minds.

The Bible says something about the heart being deceitful…. but it has nothing on the mind.  Things you teach kids when they are very young tend to be unquestioned, unexamined and forever believed.

One of the things the last few generations have believed with absolute panic certainty is that each of us needs to do his/her part to REDUCE the human population.

The other thing they have believed with credulous certainty is that the population figures from the UN are accurate, instead of being — at BEST — guesstimations, and accurately at worst a steaming pile of bull of excreta completely imaginary.

To an extent I absolve my fellow Americans, at least those born and raised in the US for believing the smelly poo the UN numbers, because they are, after all, residents in one of the most efficiently organized countries in the world.  Stop laughing.  No, seriously, stop laughing.  Even the vaunted German efficiency (and I’m not sure they were ever that efficient, except they believed they were and projected that image) has decayed markedly.  And as for the British, please don’t go there.  No, I don’t think they were ever that efficient to begin with.

The thing is that as sideways and upside down as we are, over our vast territory, particularly when coordination and central organization are needed (or intrude, anyway, as we’ve seen in the case of tests/vaccines/etc.  Question: How many of these unexploded IED of uneeded and inefficient centralization did the last administration leave submerged in the law code, ready to blow us to kingdom come at an unexpected event? Don’t answer that. I like to sleep at night. And the problem was that these were the children of the mid century who refuse to believe that centralized isn’t better. Or perhaps they’re just pigs for power, greedy to get their command on.) we do remarkably well. Not great, but remarkably well. Compared to everyone else, that is.

The problem is people born and raised in America tend to assume that this is the baseline for humanity. Having been raised in a country where the Italians and the Irish are considered self-controlled and remarkably efficient, I’m always in awe of this strange, if admittedly enchanting delusion.

I’m not a hundred percent sure while people in other countries, like, say, Portugal, think that the population “count” makes any sense.  No, I’m serious. I don’t get it. Unless it is a rock bottom assumption that EVERYONE must be more organized then them. (Bizarrely it doesn’t even begin to be true.)  I know that they tend to believe our federal government has machine-like control over every aspect of civic and cultural life in the US (no.  I’m okay. Really, I’m okay. Let me have some water so I can stop laughing and type again.)

Only this illusion allows people to believe that — what is it now? 8 billion? Yeah. It’s about as accurate as climate modeling into the far future.  Computers and GIGO rule! — population count the UN puts out.

Seriously, guys, WE who are computerized, have a civic culture where people report a lot of their stuff whether it’s needed or not (is Thomas Jefferson spinning in his grave fast enough to power all of Virginia yet?) AND where most, if not all, of our births take place in the hospital, have only the most general ideas of how many people there are in the nation.

This is because — I’m not sure when, because I haven’t looked into it — at some point our politicians realized that having MORE people in their state/districts/etc gave them more power.  And they did what they always do with things that give them more power and control. They started fudging the reckoning.

It was most blatant under Clinton and Obama — the party of unbridled governmental power! Maybe they can use that as a slogan: “Our candidate is a walking poster for the memory unit of a nursing home, but we just want power” — whose administrations both insisted that “we must add in an arbitrary — computer generated (are we sure the computers don’t have it in for us) — number of people that are “undercounted.””

Guys, I looked at the numbers they were adding at the time. I also lived in one of the cities they added numbers to. Let’s just say at that time we didn’t have nearly that many either homeless or immigrants.  Now we might have that many homeless but — hint — they were attracted at the time of pot legalization, they weren’t spontaneously generated by the sidewalks and asphalt. They came from elsewhere, where my guess is they’re still counted.

And that’s not considering most of the Latin countries south of the border are undoubtedly still counting the population we’re supposedly undercounting.

So, here’s the thing, multiply that by… well, the countries of the Earth. Our politicians have incentive built into our system (and a few bad decisions by the Supreme Court) to over count us.  That doesn’t even begin to tally the incentive that countries that are net recipients of international aid have to over count their people. Remember most of that aid is calculated per-capita.

“Oh, Sarah! But look at all those immigrants. Surely they are reproducing massively!”

<Falls on the floor laughing. Then laughs some more.

Guys, no. Those cultures are just bizarrely, massively, EXPLOSIVELY unable to provide for their people.  And the west opened their doors. My guess is that each of those immigrants is still being counted at home, too. And probably their families are much higher on paper.

There is a game which everyone has heard of and social workers and others have seen play out in real life: welfare families in certain areas “borrow” children.  I.e. some children are share over several families, to boost the numbers and the payment.  This is certainly true for a lot of the illegal immigrants, because there is no way to keep accurate records/count them.

The insanity of giving welfare to illegal immigrants is another thing that will have the future going “Did they start putting LSD in the water then?”  But it’s worse than that, it was the explosion of unimagined prosperity in the 20th century. It gave humans illusions that they could make the world into paradise, and that there was no reason not to distribute the surplus to EVERYONE.  (The world doesn’t work that way, and being given unearned wealth most destroys humans. Never mind.)

Now, why did the west open their doors?

My guess is because our leaders have some inkling of how bad things are in terms of how many people are in the upcoming generations.  My guess is that they are becoming scared, because — get this — nonexistent people cannot have children.

As much as most people like to pretend I’m crazy when I say I think our world population is already falling (why this would be any more crazy than the UN’s baseless assertion that we’re drowning in babies, I don’t know) that’s what the actions of the government of EVERY developed country are doing.

They are in a desperate fight for resources: the biggest resource of all: PEOPLE.

The west is willing to take welfare cases and illiterate peasants, in the hopes — I would guess — that their children will be productive citizens.

Except that this is the government. Centralized governments. Remember what I told you about the efficiency of such an institution?

The imagined elites composed of technocrats are so far removed from third world peasants that they don’t even GET the massive difference. They also don’t get the difference in culture. They have — after all — traveled abroad and met their counterparts, and they’re ALL the same, right? there’s no real difference, right? (I think they’d find a difference, if they married into those cultures, but never mind.)

But cultures don’t work like that. And importing vast numbers of people from dysfunctional cultures is not going to end well.  Because when you import a group the culture lingers. And these cultures are what’s technically known as fucked up non-functional. So non-functional, in fact, that they can’t provide for their new generations, even when those numbers are falling. (Look, guys, apparently women in the Middle East have used the internet to find the rhythm method and vote with their wombs.)

Socialist/welfare/”blue model” governments need ever growing populations. Their dominance came in the mid-century, when that was the assumption.  They are trying to bring in people who’ll look after the aged, and contribute to the ponzi scheme their societies have become.

But they don’t understand people very well, since I think most such technocrats are lizard beings from Alpha Centauri (well, what IS your explanation.) So they’re madly competing for WARM BODIES.  Which, since they’re being attracted with welfare and hand outs are doing nothing but collapsing the grift-and-moralizing systems faster.

That’s the good news.  The bad news is that humanity has never been in a situation where each individual family had an incentive (economic, regulatory — well, guys, when you can’t leave the precious darlings alone for more than 2hours, and can’t let them walk to the park by themselves at ten, what do you think that does — emotional and propagandistic (that climbing population)) to have fewer children; where each “blue” government in its own territory had an incentive to REDUCE population, because each citizen is a LIABILITY who will require health care, welfare, etc. etc. etc., and yet where each of those countries also desperately needed a higher and higher population every 20 years, to be able to keep existing.

I don’t even know what to say to the situation, except that the West, in this as in everything else, is forging new paths. Now, they’re new paths in self-destruction, but what the heck.

It won’t last. Whatever comes after, this won’t last. It won’t last because it is at war with itself. And the way it seems to be breaking is the people of the various countries getting annoyed at the imports who refuse to fit in. And refusing to pay for welfare.

Which …. I don’t know. And the important thing is that no one does. Between our a amazing prosperity in historical terms, falling birth rates and a completely insane would be technocratic class, the only thing I can promise you is that we’ll live in interesting times.

 

Alive and Well

We had a computer crisis this morning.  It’s been a slow-mo thing around the house. I think was an update. Render computer also working now!
But it took a good two/three hours, and then… other things intervened.

Please forgive me. I’m postponing promo a week.