Lately, in politics, in publishing, even in industry, I keep wondering what rabbit hole opened up and swallowed me whole.
No, I’m serious. Listen to me.
We have publishers who choose to try to kill ebooks to “advantage” hardcovers, something that should be self-obviously out of the realm of sanity, because… well… for one we’re in a recession and hardcovers always do badly in those, second because people who’ve decided to go mostly e-book aren’t going to buy the hardcover. They’re going to wait then let it drop. By the time the ebook comes out, they won’t remember they wanted to read that book. So, it’s a huge fail. But the publishing houses are committed to this strategy.
And you wonder – are they insane?
We have journalists who don’t seem interested in investigating anything at all and who – please don’t argue with me. I’ve seen the emails from journolist and it’s disgusting – think their job is (just as the publishers think their job is) to control the outcome of things that should be beyond their power. To “push the right view” as it were, instead of the truth. They have to realize (round ’bout the second summer of recovery malaise they should have realized it, but even the WSJ was buying into the hype and singing from the hymnal) that even if people wanted to believe them, they’re going to believe their lying eyes FIRST.
And you wonder – are they insane?
Don’t get me started on our government, which seems to have crossed entirely into the realm of fantasy, thinking that wars can be stopped by apologizing to people who want to kill you (listen, dork, this is not your freshman seminar. In reality people who want to kill have other issues with you than that you might have been a little too forceful with them, mkay? In the case of America the problem they have with us is that their kraptastic leaders have convinced the people of some countries that WE are responsible for their misery. This keeps the leaders in power and the masses howling against the Great Satan. I think the leaders of those countries might run some publishing houses too. See behavior to Amazon.) Or thinking that we can conjure money out of thin air and this means we’re CREATING value. Or thinking that taxing “the rich” means more money, instead of “the rich” leaving for other countries or stopping money-making activity. (Hint, taxing doesn’t happen in a vaccum. It changes behaviors. That’s the whole point.) Or thinking that they can support a fast-aging group with a shrinking youth when the youth has neither jobs nor enough numbers.) Or…
And you wonder – are they insane?
Then there’s Hollywood. Even accounting for the fact that they get a lot of money from overseas, surely it wouldn’t be that hard for them to make movies that appeal to both? And even overseas, frankly, certain types of flicks sell better. Instead we see the politically correct take over and over again, and – as in books – it’s boring and it no longer sells, and yet they keep doing it.
And you wonder – are they insane?
And I’m sure ALL OF YOU – all of you – with expertise in fields that I don’t know are observing the same effect.
And wondering – are they insane?
They can’t be, right? Even accounting for third-generation stupidity — meaning that in many fields for three generations the “search” has been for people with certain political opinions, not the best at whatever the field is – even with the fantasy land most of our education has become, people can’t be THAT stupid. They have to realize what they’re doing isn’t working or is having the opposite effect of the desired, right?
And then it hit me: they’re not trying to adapt or adjust to the future – they’re running out the clock.
You know what I mean. There’s a football game where one team is barely ahead and the time is running out and instead of pushing for scoring, the team is just blocking and running out the clock.
Seen from this perspective the picture suddenly makes sense.
No, this is not a boomer-bashing post, but it is undeniable they are the largest age-cohort to come through in a long month of Sundays. And here statistics don’t lie and the trying to co-opt my age range doesn’t work. The boom stopped around 53/54. And they are… shall we say clannish? For a long time it was a more or less open secret they preferred to hire their own cohort. Now, I’m not sure because I don’t care anymore.
What this means is that when I started getting published most of the publishers/editors were ten to twenty years older than I. Their interchangeable assistants (Baen always excepted in these things) were ten to fifteen years younger than I. Most of those are gone, and there are other bright, doomed and clueless faces there. BUT the main editors/publishers are still the same. Still making the decisions. Still… running out the clock.
I’ve heard comments to this extent once of twice. Most of them are now either at or past ages when they could retire. Their stocks aren’t doing too well, but if they keep the houses going to a point they can retire, then they’ll have their pension or whatever. And what happens to the industry/government/art when they’re gone is of remarkable little concern to them.
This is not an effect of the boomers being evil. It’s an effect of a massive bump in the population that was then followed by a contraction in birth rates. It means that the people who are now in control are in their early/mid sixties, with a few older ones.
It means both they have trouble adapting to new situations and catastrophic change – which we’re surrounded by on all sides – and conceptualizing or caring about things in the future in ten, twenty, thirty years. This is compounded by the fact that in my field at least most of them are childless. (And in other fields a remarkable number of them are childless. Both the demands of a career and economic pressure did that and account for the baby bust following the boom.)
So, in enlightened self-interest, people who have no investment in the future are running out the clock.
What I think they’re failing to take into account is: what happens when the last tick echoes?
