There was a sentence in a PJ O’Rourke book. I can’t remember which book, and I can’t quote the sentence exactly, but it was something like “The future is here, it’s just unevenly distributed.”
The fact is the future/progress/innovation is always unevenly distributed.
It’s only in books and movies that you get a new thing and everyone adopts it or starts using it, everywhere at once. That has never happened, ever.
And it’s not just a being able to afford it, or even a matter of being able to use it or having an understanding of how it works. It’s that people adopt things when they feel comfortable with them.
We tend to be — in this household — interested in the new stuff. Not taking to it blindly, mind, but finding things that are useful to us and using them. This in general means we ping people as being ten to twenty years younger than we are. (I got pulled into a “now you’re forty” group on FB. I haven’t laughed that hard since I was pulled into an atheist group. I am my own grandpa, and all that. Also, get off my lawn.)
Since we’re not actually stupid about it, we don’t pay the innovator’s tax. That is, we don’t buy the brand spanking new tech that might or might not work. Mostly because we’re not stupid, but also because we’re in general fairly broke. And also because … well, we know better from watching that first stage of cool.
It’s not that I don’t want it. I wanted a kindle since it had a weird green screen. But it was really expensive and you know what, I could get a used PDA ten years out of fashion, and use it as an ebook reader fro about $20. And I did.
But I did adopt ebooks early. Because frankly taking 100 books in electronic form was a lot cheaper than taking a suitcase of books to a vacation overseas, and the … functionality was attractive.
However, how many people still never have tried an ebook, and not for lack of funds, either. (Yes, yes, I know. Some people like paper books for other reasons. Frankly, I never understood the point of ink, paper, the smell. Fine. Whatever. I’m not everyone, but I got into it for the story. And electronic is an easier and cheaper way to deliver the story. On top of which of course as I get older reading the kindle is really the only way to read, because of the higher contrast of letters and background. But that’s something else.)
Then there are blogs. I gave up on newspapers at least twenty years ago.
Meanwhile my husband is only catching up with alternate news now. On the other hand, he is fully into… well… I can’t tell you what because I don’t get it. But whatever the new tech or computer language he’s obsessed with until he figures it out and moves on to the next thing. (It’s not lack of trying to pull me in. I just don’t have a use for the parts of the future he’s interested in.)
When all of you keep screaming “But how can people not be outraged at x” that is all over the blogs, all I can think is how my husband routinely comes to me with some great revelation he just found, which has been on blogs and alternate news media for… six months on average. Because that’s not what he’s interested in and he’s not a political addict. And at that, he’s probably more interested in politics, just from living with me than the average person.
In the same way, I find myself being asked by new writers how to break into trad pub, because — they say — otherwise they’ll never be published, and I hit my head against the wall, because for the last ten years — while most fiction writers make very little money on average — indie writers have out-earned trad pub writers, sometimes substantially.
So, what is all this in the name of?
The disaster in Texas. While the democrats, natch, are screaming about how it’s all the fault of cuts — cuts I tell you! — in various agencies, and the right is screaming back that the cuts haven’t gone into effect (true) and that the warnings went out anyway (also true) they’re both (all) missing the true point.
It doesn’t matter how many flood warnings were sent. What matters is if they were received.
Look, we have a weather radio in the home. I got it three years ago, when I realized that all other forms of warning were iffy.
When I was an exchange student 44 years ago, there was usually a TV on in the house. And periodically it would scream, and we’d know some weather horribad was headed for us. I thought that people were getting warned over nothing (that’s something else. And people have mentioned the cry wolf possibilities, but that’s not the only problem) but we all heard it. Honestly, although back then as now I wasn’t that fond of TV, if I were in my room doing something, I’d be listening to the radio. Now while that’s not true for everyone, chances are that on average people would have heard the warnings however serious those warnings were.
Now, if we’re out of the house and away from the weather radio? Sure we have our phones always with us, and you’d think they were really useful. You’d think, and largely you’d be wrong.
Despite my having location on at various times, (mostly because I need to) in the last couple of months I’ve had warnings for severe weather in… Chicago Illinois and … Denver. Not only do I not live anywhere near those locations, but I haven’t been in one in…. 12? 14 years? And in the other in 2 years. Why did I get those warnings? I don’t know. But almost everyone has had wrong warnings. Which means even if you get the right warnings (and how many of us have location on all the time? Come on.) you might ignore it, because you get wrong ones more often. The chances of ignoring a warning are high.
And then there’s the multiple warnings you get from a weather radio. Or at least I do. I swear if there’s a thunderstorm anywhere in the next five adjacent zipcodes, I get it. And what they expect me to do about it, I don’t know, except perhaps stand in the middle of the street screaming “Stop” which I don’t think would go well.
Anyway, the point is that the vanishing of the mass media and the “everyone does this thing” lifestyle of the past leaves necessary warnings sort of limbo. Sure, some people will get it. But what about the people who are not in whatever form you’re sending the warning out on?
What about people who don’t watch tv/are on a cell phone diet/only watch cable etc. etc. etc?
Your end result will be patchy and weird, because…. things are changing, but the change isn’t a wave. It’s little eddies and advances and retreats.
When I talk about the catastrophic part of rapid technological innovation? This is part of what I’m talking about.
Things are changing weirdly and not all at the same time, and when you need to communicate something to everyone at once it’s almost impossible because people aren’t all living in the same time period, technology and entertainment speaking. Some are at the forefront, some are at the rearguard, and some are in parallel universes.
From now on and for a good while, if not forever, we can’t trust that a vast majority people will be able to hear a broadcast warning. Or that a significant fraction of people will be getting news on the latest events. Or that people will even know a certain technology that’s old hat to us exists.
How do we deal with that?
I don’t know. The way will emerge. It always does. It might involve going really old school with local sirens and people being informed over time that they need to turn on some means of communication or look at their favorite weather site when they hear the ahooooooon outside. Or at least that could be one of the solutions. Undoubtedly there will be others.
But until it does disasters and slip ups will happen. It’s part of the rapid change. And the more rapid the change the more things slip because human expectations and culture lag.
Now multiply this for everything in the culture/society.
The old structures are crumbling. They’re doing so unevenly.
Please, you people out there, in real people land, be aware of where you might be out of step with those around you and where that speeding up or falling back might bite you in the place you sit.
Be aware and mitigate your vulnerabilities. Be patient with those who aren’t in the same cultural/technological place you are.
And build under, build over, build around.
We’re going to need a lot of redundancy.
The future? It’s here. It’s just not evenly distributed!
According To Hoyt Annual Fundraiser
This will be going on until the eighteenth of July.
This is the reason for doing a fundraiser. THIS IS NOT AN EMERGENCY. Don’t hurt yourself.
If you read this blog a few times a week and feel like donating, I’m tremendously grateful.
If you read this blog and don’t feel like donating, that’s fine too.
If you wish you could donate but can’t, consider buying one of my books (hopefully a bunch coming out starting next month… Yeah, i am better) and if you like it leaving a review. If you’ve read my books and enjoyed them, consider leaving a review. If you can — and have something you know well — consider sending me a guest post to give me a “free day.” (No guarantees of acceptance, of course.)
I’d like to say I’m doing better and will be better at following through on rewards. But I still have them pending from other years, because the last four years have been a slow upward battle. I am better, but I’m not adding to that backlog. (Though I’ll continue trying to fulfill promises long overdue.)
For this year, I’ll (merely) give you ways to donate.
The Give Send Go is still active. Lately I’ve gotten more disenchanted with them, though. Not only have they hosted fundraisers for the kid who stabbed the track star through the heart, but there was some appearance of encouraging racialist bs. True or not? Don’t know. Haven’t looked that closely. Still, that and the fact they calculate how much of the raised money you actually get in some weird way makes them less than shiny.
So, what else is there? Well, there is paypal. Yes, I removed the button from the side (though I’ll return it) because they were threatening to fine people for badthink. Whether that was entirely organic or part of the Autopen administration it’s open to debate. They were being very enthusiastic about forcing everything from social media to everything else including debanking. At any rate, I think it is safe to use a paypal link for the next four years. Give or take. (Look none of these services are pure. We use what we can and seems safe at the time.)
So, here’s the paypal link.
While on that, yes, the address in Las Vegas is still available:
Sarah A. Hoyt
Goldport Press
304 S Jones Blvd #6771
Las Vegas, NV 89107
(Note this is a drop box. Please don’t send perishables that will be damaged by heat. If you want to send something out of the ordinary, contact me first. I’ll figure out antoher place to send it where things won’t be damaged and I can retrieve it. And it might be best to catch me at a con. (Younger DIL says I have do do more cons. Sigh.)
Please, please, please do not send Indy a multi-tool. I realize this is probably futile pleading, but he’s enough trouble as it is. No, seriously. If you want me to have time to write, don’t send Indy a multitool.
And that’s it for now. A heartfelt thank you to anyone who contributes, thinks about contributing or (“merely”) leaves a nice review on one of my books.
Every little bit helps, said the old lady– wait…. ahem. … I wouldn’t do that in the ocean!
Seriously, every review, every book buy, every donation: it all helps keeping me doing what I do. So, thank you.