Post up at PJM

This one is VIP.  My code is HOYT. If you decide to sign for it, use it, please will give you a discount (and pay me a bounty.)

https://pjmedia.com/blog/the-covid-19-phony-war/

I’ll update this post as the others go up.

UPDATE, not VIP: https://pjmedia.com/blog/the-green-new-nose-under-the-tent/

And more updates:  Modeling COVID-19 and the Lies of Multiculturalism

And this one is VIP, also. Use HOYT as your discount code:

We Risk Killing Civilization in Our Panicked Fear of Individual Death

68 thoughts on “Post up at PJM

      1. That response happened for the first linkED article, about how response(s) to The Great Cough Forward was a “phony war” – which triggered that bit of historical memory.

  1. Have you finally learned the basics of self-promotion? Are you, at last, no longer depending on the generosity of wallabies?

    Hallelujah.

  2. Full disclosure: back in the day I was a yearly subscriber to PJTV, and I always remember fondly what a class act they were as when they decided to go free access they refunded me the prorated remainder of my year’s subscription. So when they started their premium membership I jumped on it.
    For those here who might not have the wherewithall to immediately subscribe, as a regular you’ve already seen most of at least this post. Either here or in Her Highness’s FB posts. It did summarize things quite nicely though, and garnered a well known troll almost immediately in the comments.
    Judging one’s effectiveness by one’s enemies is a fairly reliable mechanism after all.

    1. Concur. It is well worth the gelt*.

      And since it is after midnight in most US time zones, Happy Easter!

      * Spellcheck wants to make that gelato. That works too.

  3. And a quick observation, while some posts at PJMedia are now VIP so now require a subscription, the majority, including some by Sarah, are still free to read.
    Have to confess that I get the majority of my news and information these days from PJMedia, Breitbart, Fox News, and this and a couple of other blogs. Most of what the other news outlets are dishing out should never have been allowed to fall from the rear ends of the livestock that generated it.

    1. Have to confess that I get the majority of my news and information these days from …

      I admit to checking the Washington Post daily, primarily for obituaries, the couple editorialists not utterly deranged (primarily Thiessen, Lane & Hewitt) but that I scan the front page and “most popular” with the same attitude I would once have used when looking at Pravda, The Nation, and/or The New Republic. It is always useful to monitor enemy communiques so long as you keep in mind that the Truth is not in them. “The News” is ever what somebody wants you to believe.

      I do get a hoot out of the New York Post.

      1. I still read the Wall Street Journal. Sometimes the mental gap between the reporters and the editors is . . . impressive. But it’s still pretty decent, and the Saturday funnies are great. [Those are not supposed to be funny! Those are the lifestyle pages! Ed.]

        1. The Journal’s reporters have, reportedly, LONG cringed over the editorial page.

          I find that inordinately amusing.

        1. As I noted, the Post has a (very)few columnists worth reading and, in Lane, one of the few sane liberals in print. I learned, back during the Clinton Imperium, the trick of reading their articles — skip to the bottom few paragraphs. That’s where they hide the facts they don’t want you to know but need to put i so that later, when called out o not reporting news, they can claim they published it.

          The Carlos Slim Times is just embarrassingly cringe-worthy in their coverage. William Safire was long the only saving grace and with him gone they’re so far in their bubble they have approached singularity.

        2. I hate them all. Hate ’em. Liars, every single one. I contribute nothing to their coffers, not even clicks if I can avoid it.

          Likewise I do not take any Canadian newspapers, television or radio. 100% boycott.

          I remain better informed and hear what I need to know more quickly browsing random blogs like Small Dead Animals and MGC, where the commenters have a clue and the blog owners keep their eyes open for interesting things.

          The news (and knowledge generally) is not a stream. It is a haystack. You take unconnected straws of information and put them together into actionable knowledge.

          Take the WuFlu, ferinstance. I knew it was airborne from news coming out of China in February. I knew we needed masks in late February, two different straws out of my haystack. I bought N-95 filters for my paint masks based on that information. Because duh! Its airborne! It wasn’t here yet, or so I thought at the time, but since then it has become apparent that it totally was and we just didn’t know.

          Government of Canada started admitting we needed to use masks AFTER the Canadian media proclaimed them necessary. On April 8th.

          Most people are not getting very sick, or sick at all. Some people are getting extremely sick, which increases the need for masks and hygiene for everyone. Am I reading that in the Canadian media? No.

          So screw ’em. If they can’t get their act together for a genuine going-to-kill-your-grandma emergency, they never ever will. Let them go bankrupt, the lot of them.

          Maybe they can learn to code.

    2. I”m trying to decide. VIP for one site is $49 a year, but I see interesting content across the board for the $89 VIP Gold fee. Have to decide if I want to spend that much

      Gab Trends is turning into a good approximation of what Drudge once was, but Insty, Powerline and CTH do most of the content I’m getting. I haven’t been following Breitbart closely, though it seems better recently.

  4. Whew … Things got hot on your PJM thread last night.

    I’ve got some concern that the WuFlu is doing to “conservatives” what our enemies have so far failed to do: turn us against one another. Of course this begs a question about what is/is not a conservative, I know. It’s just that the level of name calling vitriol surprised me.

      1. Well, I don’t know how to explain. But I’ll try. I have a personal history of being ahead of the curve in developing a sense of where and how people are moving. Not claiming any prescience. Good grief no. It’s just that I seem to be good at taking the general temperature and feeling out where the beast is trending. So I can say that I agree with you and at the same time feel a catch in my throat warning me that something else is in the wind, something is not right here. And that’s the thing. Something is NOT right here

        1. Not all Trump supporters are conservative, not all conservatives are Trump supporters. This creates a dynamic tension when dealing with such circumstances as the COVID-19 disaster.

          Trump supporters are prone to believe that because Trump has taken an action that action must be good. Conservatives are prone to considering every action on its own merits — and many are uncomfortable with the present lock-down, a position exacerbated by the over-reach practiced by state and local officials.

          During the Eighties much the same dichotomy was observable amongst Reagan supporters, although then the tendency was to blame administration RINOs and demand they “Let Reagan be Reagan.” Politics has always been part compromise, part improvise and people naturally differ over where that lie betwee the two gets drawn.

          At present it is too early to evaluate Western Civilization the WuFlu woo-hoo. What will determine the success or failure of the response is how we get out of the present Charles Foxtrot. If precedents established get further abused or whether we learn to distrust government power, computer models and sclerotic bureaucracies will make a great difference in what kid of success we have.

        1. Seems to be a general problem with anyone who goes up against post-modernists and communists.

          You don’t need a coherent argument if you excel at giving your opponents enough rope to draw and quarter themselves.

    1. People are scared and pissed off. They yell. This is normal.

      The difference between a Conservative and a Liberal is that the Conservative will stab you in the FRONT. Liberals put on a nice face and stab you in the back. Beware of nice faces.

      Humans are predatory mammals. We fight. Here endeth the lesson.

      1. Why no serology tests? it seems to me we did this whole thing back to front and should have been doing serology tests like they’ve done in Germany. Everyone is stuck on the numerator and we still have no idea about the denominator.

  5. I’m still a newspaper junky. There used to be a news seller on 42nd Street where you could get all the foreign papers and I tried to get up there at least once a week. That’s still more or less my cadence and the internet has been a great boon.

    I stil read the WSJ because that’s more or less a professional obligation. I never read the NYT. NY Post for the sports page, though now I just ask my sons. The Financial Times is actually a very left wing paper and I have better sources now. I scan the headlines on the Daily Mail. My wife loves it because she “doesn’t want much news in her newspaper.” It was a great way to monitor the reaction the WuFlu. When WuFlu went over Harry and Meghan I knew it was serious. I try to read some European papers in the original both to keep in practice and because what appears in English is often very different from what appears in the original.

    Singapore Straits Times is a hoot. South China Morning Post used to be a good paper. it’s been housebroken.

    It used to be possible to tell political orientations in NYC from the color of the ink stain under the left arm of the tan raincoats we all wore. NYT had green ink, WSJ more or less black. The ink always came off, The NYT always denied it came off. Given they would lie to you about something you could see on your hands as you read it I never did understand why anyone believed anything else they said but GelMann amnesia is a very real thing.

  6. Done. I am betting on your lasting at least a year – at PJM, that is.

    (I was going to use something like your being the subject of a painting entitled “Robert’s Mother.” Then looked it up, the lady only made it to 77. I expect more from you!)

    1. Both grandmothers died at 88. Mom is 85. That’s with Portuguese Medicine.
      I’m not sure, now with this depression coming that I can live that long. I can try.
      So far I’ve exceeded my life expectancy at birth by 57 years and change.

      1. Considering that I nearly bled out the night of my birth, I’ve been doing the same for some sixty and a couple dimes myself.

        I read something years ago, paraphrasing: “Why have I lived this long? Well, every time Death came for a visit, I looked him straight in the eye and asked him if he really had the time to dance that day. He always walked away for some reason…”

        Seems you’ve done that more than a few times yourself.

  7. Updates? We were promised updates!

    We Risk Killing Civilization in Our Panicked Fear of Individual Death
    By Sarah Hoyt
    A lot of people are allowing the installation of what amounts to a police state due to fear of COVID-19 (a disease that 98% of those who catch it survive).

    Unable to figure it out, feeling as though I’m standing in two inches of water while all around me people are flopping on their bellies and screaming they’re going to die unless government saves them, I’m brought to realize that my view of death is profoundly un-American.

    There are reasons for that, including the fact that I grew up in a country where human life is far less safe, and disease far more likely to take a majority of people before they even attain maturity.

    Yes, I know, you’ve heard it all before: “Americans are too rich,” “Americans are too spoiled,” “Americans are too comfortable.”

    That is not what I’m saying. I, myself, have become American enough that my answer to all of the above is always “And we like it that way.”

    The problem I’m having right now is that one of those “Americans are too—” is going to destroy all of those above. If the phony lockup but real destruction of the economy goes on for another month (And Colorado just extended ours to the 26th of April) there will be if not outright famine – and I’d bet on outright famine, given that, among other things, we’re losing all imported food and already crops are being plowed under – a severe food shortage with rationing. The number of businesses destroyed, lives blighted, and industries that will never come back will be too numerous to count. Our unemployment rate is going to give us real homeless, i.e. those who can’t afford homes, not those who choose to live outside society, which is mostly the homeless we’ve had.

    And why? …

  8. You want updates? I’ll give you updates! I’ve got your update right here.

    Modeling COVID-19 and the Lies of Multiculturalism
    By Sarah Hoyt
    Perhaps the best thing that could come out of this entire debacle and turning America into a police state — where people are arrested for going somewhere in their cars and never leaving their cars — should be a total disdain for and disbelief in computer models.

    The Imperial College of London model that terrified our largely scientifically illiterate politicos and therefore killed the world economy, like every other model that tries to model human behavior, assumed a spherical cow of uniform density in a frictionless vacuum.

    What am I talking about? Exactly what I said.

    Computer modeling can be incredibly useful, particularly when you’re modeling physics: an object dropped from such and such a place, which has such and such velocity, will impact on such and such a place with such and such force. However, as the mother and wife of STEM people for whom physics is a game and who create such models for fun, I know that the accuracy of the model depends on how much you put into it and how much of the real factors on that day, in that place, you can put in. …

  9. Rules for models.

    1) The accuracy of a model is never better than the assumptions used in building it and the data given it. It may be worse.
    2) Reality is always more complex than a model, and the assumptions always oversimplify the matter in some respect. The more complex the system being modeled, the more likely it is that some assumption is entirely wrong.
    3) There are always unstated assumptions which the modelers will never think to check.
    4) The data is always in error.

    1. 5) If they bothered to collect data in the first place.

      It seems like most of the numbers they’re throwing around were pulled out of their asses…
      ———————————
      Facts do not depend on opinions. Unfortunately, for far too many people, opinions do not depend on facts, either.

        1. Hey, gotta make their numbers else people might suspect there’s a problem in the methodology. As Joycelyn “Discount Condoms” Elders said, we can’t afford for people to lose confidence in government experts!

          Besides, you know all those coronaviruseses look alike.

        2. Sarah,
          NIH is asking for volunteers, for testing to track COVID 19 exposure, by mail nationwide and in person in the DC area. This will be interesting….
          https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection
          In this “serosurvey,” researchers will collect and analyze blood samples from as many as 10,000 volunteers to provide critical data for epidemiological models. The results will help illuminate the extent to which the novel coronavirus has spread undetected in the United States and provide insights into which communities and populations are most affected. Participants working at the NIH Bethesda campus will have blood drawn at the NIH Clinical Center. Other volunteers will participate in at-home blood sampling. Neoteryx, a medical device firm based in Torrance, California, will supply at-home blood collection kits. Researchers will ship each study participant a Mitra®Home Blood Collection Kit and provide detailed instructions on collecting a microsample of blood and mailing it back for future analysis in the laboratory. People interested in joining this study should contact clinicalstudiesunit@nih.gov . For more information on this study, please visit ClinicalTrials.gov using identifier NCT04334954.

      1. 6. The map is not the territory.

        7. If there is a discrepancy between the map and the territory the flaw is IN THE @!#$ Map!

        1. If they understood that, they would not be what they are. They blame the universe when it does not live up to their fantasies.

          We make rules. Sometimes the universe does not conform to those rules. When that happens, there are three possible responses:

          1. Analyze the disparity and correct the rules
          2. Pretend it didn’t happen
          3. Screech “RAAACISSST!!! and blame ‘conservatives’

        2. My sophomore year in High school chemistry, I was expected to write up a lab report after every experiment. (This is why I didn’t go for a career in science. I hated writing lab reports, and If I were going to do experimental research, I would have to write up lab reports. All The Time.) I was required to go through all the sources of error in my results I could think of. As little as I knew then of either chemistry or scientific methods, it was still an invaluable exercise in how science is actually supposed to be done.

          Given what I have learned since of mathematical, computational, statistical, measurement, and scientific error and how it is (or should be) handled, not to mention human error (ranging from simple ignorance through culpable negligence to conscious fraud) especially contrasted with how it often is handled, I am distrustful of all models, be they of global climate or pandemics. Given how easy it is in dealing with human beings to contaminate the findings of any study with ideological or political bias. It is dangerous!!! to base public policy on them.

    2. As a grognard wargamer, I learned that models were fallible when I was 14 or so. As I put it then (1979), “No rules can be perfectly realistic. In order to be reasonably realistic while also being a playable game, all rules will have to allow some things that seem silly*. The quality of the wargame is the ratio of reasonable realism to the silly things.”

      * (or as I would add now, “or gloss over things that are complex”.)

      1. True. But we took a bit of a hit this year and I’m only just now making good on all the subscriptions (about 12 🙂 I had planned for January after we axed our cable TV.

  10. For those so inclined, there is a preprint report using the Icelandic data to estimate US infection rates. Estimates are that the ratio of actually infected to diagnosed with a test run between 9 and 15 times. This is in-line with the German study and puts the Infection death rate firmly down into bad flu territory. The paper can be found on MEDRXIV dot org. And is Titled Estimates for the Undetected Rate among the SARS Cov2 Infected Using the Testing Data from Iceland.

    in other news, LA Times has an article about San Francisco being hit hard with a flu like virus in February. Conclusion is that the virus has been here longer than thought. From that, one could conclude that the reason California had so few cases is that this is the second or third wave and there is widespread immunity there and, most importantly, that the shutdown is useless. Don’t hold your breath about how long it will take the Gauleiters to acknowledge that.

    1. Yes. we got hit Jan/feb, and I blame New Year’s breakfast at Pete’s Kitchen (mostly because as today, I take forever to get going after a holiday.) Why? Because we get a ton of tourists from CA. If it was in CA in February, it was in Colorado. And I suspect it was earlier.

  11. Poor Berenson is having a red pill moment. I think he’s finally understanding what’s going on among the haut bourgeoisie in NY and Cali. It’ll be good for him.

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