
This post is a follow up on yesterday’s. Sort of. I mean, you don’t need to read yesterday’s to get this, but you might want to read it afterwards.
Part of the reason I wrote yesterday’s post is that I can feel a great disturbance in the force. There is turmoil ahead. The image is a shovel tearing into an anthill, but it’s not exactly right, because it’s not so much a destructive as an upside-downer event. A rebuild.
To the ants, and us, though, it won’t feel that different, so it will do.
Look, this is not new. The second half of the 20th century has been a wild ride of catastrophic innovation. I realized at one point, while talking to my kids about what they intended to study and why, that almost none of my friends, not even those with doctorates, worked in the fields they had trained for. The only exception was medical doctors and one biological doctor/scientist, but even there a lot of them have other careers going in parallel.
I don’t know if that’s because I’m an Odd among Odds. I mean, that’s always possible. We tend to assume our circles are the norm. Except that the wider circle is like that too, and…. so on ad infinitum. In fact, when we hear from a friend or acquaintance we haven’t heard since our twenties, and they’re still on the path we left them, and doing the same thing. Because that’s the exception. The normal is… bizarre, and often well-nigh unbelievable, since a lot of it are against known skills or characteristics.
Without giving away anyone’s stories, picture us, with Dan’s phone. and Dan going “Uh uh, so…. okay, Mike became a mountain guide. Wait, wasn’t he the one so afraid of heights he couldn’t stand on a step stool? Uh. He’s still like that? But he controls it for mountain climbing? Uh!” We exchange a puzzled look.
Now imagine that a couple hundred times over, and you have the picture. The shock is more “Oh, Mary who wanted to be a nurse is a nurse? Has been a nurse for thirty years? WOW. Odd.”
There are reasons for it. One of them is that, given how long we live now, and it grew by a third in the late twentieth century (yes, I know the average is creeping down, but look, to an extent that’s no real, because it reflects people living very risky lifestyles enabled by prosperity, etc.) Let’s remember the original retirement age was 60 for social security, and they thought they’d make out like bandits (the government) because most people didn’t live that long, and the ones who did died in two or three years maximum, except for a statistically irrelevant number.
But we live longer. More importantly, we live healthily longer. The first eighty year old I met, I was 14 and he was a wreck. Last time i saw my dad he was over 90 and he wasn’t THAT MUCH of a wreck. Or anything close to it. Unhealthy, well, at that age goes without saying, right. BUT NOT A WRECK. Still functional and doing things. Yes, I know it varies greatly. But I met my first 80 year old at 14, and now when friend dies at 80 we don’t say “so early?” but we often think it. 90s is now the more “fitting” time of death than 80s. Though of course it happens in the eighties with high frequency.
We live longer healthy lives, and in fact my dad retired at 80, and husband has worked with 80 year olds who got bored in retirement.
What does this mean? Well, we choose our career absurdly early, and expect it to last life-long. That’s half of it. A lot of us come to not like/loathe what we loved as kids. Now, I’m not suggesting the training to be self sufficient should be later. Let the kids grow up. Just …. we probably shouldn’t going for graduate degrees before 32 or so. Because we will change. Or at least a significant subset will.
The problem of course is that our legacy educational system is still geared for people who live till sixty just about, and therefore if you don’t pursue your education early and hard and to the extreme you want to take it, people will look at you funny, which in the case of people who work for college admissions might mean you don’t get in.
So we’re stuck taking a gamble on what we’ll do professionally for the rest of our lives, often signed, sealed and delivered by our early to mid twenties, though these times — and I wonder if it’s an unconscious attempt to fix it — stretching to our early thirties.
Anyway, the second leg of it, and the reason rarely stay in the same professions is that the things are changing much much faster. We’ve been caught in an era of catastrophic change since at least the fifties, maybe the sixties. It’s called catastrophic change, because even when the innovation is for the good or does good things, the speed of it has catastrophic results for the people caught in its path.
Sure, electrical light was life altering for candle makers, but not really. Because it took so long for places to be electrified (and there had been a false start first with gas lights) that the industry just slowly dwindled until it was the size needed for “candles for church” and “candles for pretty.”
I mean, even traditional publishing is being hit faster and harder than that in the last 20 years, and it’s still a manageable change, it just s-l-o-w-ly dwindles and finds niche places.
But the phone companies…. well. Yeah, some have gone cell, but…. It was hit hard. I honestly don’t know how many lines remain but it’s not many. And say a prayer for those people who’d just trained to become phone booth maintenance men.
Okay, I’m only part joking. Most of the catastrophic change you can’t see, nor I either, because it’s not even a whole industry (though I’m sure people in the comments will give me examples of that, too) but it’s “how things are done” within existing industries. Many ways of doing things, and highly specialized things people went to school for years and trained for are being swept away over night by a combination of technology and the idiocy of the last three years sending a lot of people home to work. (Not to mention the stupidity of showing to restaurant and small shop owners that they could be destroyed like that, making it a high risk to even begin to start such a business.)
I’ve been noticing it, back of the things: lots of friends getting laid off. Entire departments disappearing. Companies swallowed. People finishing degrees and having trouble finding jobs because they specialized in something that objectively doesn’t exist, really. Though it did five years ago.
We’re of course trying to help our own.
But it goes deeper than that. You see, centralization doesn’t work very well, but everything has been centralized and all credentials for most jobs are central, as are accreditation for the institutions, etc.
It never worked very well, but the utter horror events could be hidden, so we thought it worked well and was “so efficient.” But it never was. And the same openness and ease of communication that’s been showing the flaws of the system has hit every institution, enterprise, avocation, job, etc. hard. Really hard.
The short hand for this is “everything is broken” from hiring to promoting, to everything in between, in most fields, including STEM ones. It’s frankly a miracle that things more or less work and more people haven’t died from the necessary fields not working.
Sometimes the image I get from this is the coyote, just off the cliff, running on air, but he’s still suspended because he hasn’t noticed.
“Everything is broken” and this effect is exacerbated by a lot of companies, not to mention schools or government appendages going “woke” in a futile effort to appease the unappeasable and also having propagandized themselves into believing it’s the wave of the future.
This generally leads them to run off the even mildly competent for the stupid who can say the slogans really loud.
Also it means that for many people their dream job, for which they trained and which they thought they’d work in the rest of their lives is now something to get away from. But they have nowhere to go.
I’ve talked of this problem here before. If you have your identity tied up with your work, particularly if you’re good at it and have justifiable pride in your achievements, finding yourself professionally homeless which is worse than unemployed can break you. Particularly in late middle age. (I call it “unemployed middle aged man syndrome.” Though a lot of the sufferers are women, there are fewer, because mostly men invest everything of themselves in the job.)
As this accelerates and it is accelerating both through innovation and through the sheer stupidification (totally a word) of work places and fields, more people find themselves in this position.
I don’t want people to be stuck. I don’t want our people to be hopeless. And honestly, we need to thrive, so we come out of this ready to rebuild.
Do I have pointers? No. But I have suggestions.
1- Before it happens, be aware it’s happening to a lot of people that thought it was unimaginable, or that they were indispensable. So…. Don’t be paranoid, but watch your six and sniff the air. Be aware that things could change in a moment.
2- Prepare yourself mentally. Understand it is not your fault. It’s happening to you, sure, but just because you’re in the path of the shovel ripping up the anthill, it doesn’t mean it’s your particular fault.
3- Help others now, and extend your network. Most jobs, in our falling-trust society are now obtained by word of mouth and friendly push. It’s also possible this is due to online application systems being worse than Kleenex soaked in pepper juice.
4- be aware of where your field/expertise is going, and of possible “indie” opportunities, if it’s even remotely possible. So, if you’re say a widget maker, consider becoming profficient n 3-d printing, thinking through licenses, etc.
For writers, publishers, editors, etc. this track is now well established. Yes, there are opportunities in indie. And you should find them with minimal effort. A little more effort is needed to figure out how to make more money than you do in trad, but this is also possible to find with a little research. These are still the wild frontier days, but now the trails are marked.
5 – Help others you see coming up behind you. This believe it or not will help. For one, you might stumble. For another, making the alternative healthier and stronger when a system is on the verge of dying makes everyone more secure.
6- Be ready to pick up a completely different field, and/or find a way to make a living in the gig economy.
7- The watch phrase is “Multiple streams of income.” PARTICULARLY if these idiots manage to destroy the economy and the chance is high they will, but also because frankly, in a catastrophic change environment you need backups to your backups. If you already have three or four streams of income, the loss of one won’t be catastrophic, while you hunt around for a fourth way to supplement.
8 – Donate to food banks. Yes, I know, but you’d be amazed how many people are already hurting.
9- Have a place you can crash if your job disappears without warning. Ditto, make like a Mormon and have food for a yer.
10 – Preparation will avoid catastrophe, if not unpleasantness. Prepare now. Forget the idea you were “born for” a field or forever in your path. (Yes, that’s a bit do as a I say, but I have few skills, honestly.)
Rough days are coming. Probably. We might still escape them, but it would take greater luck than I think even America has. If we escape the really rough times, I’m going to assume it’s a miracle. Particularly given our current idiots in power.
Rough days and poor economy in a time of catastrophic change is a deadly combination.
Be ready to jump and be productive, and give your friends and friendly acquaintances a hand up to a safe place.
The life you save might be your own.
















































