I have good news: We live in a time of great opportunity. I also have terrible news: we live in a time of great danger. The two inevitably run together, and the two will inevitably come to fulfillment in whatever measure. At most in our small way we can control the measure of it in our little portion of the world. We cannot and will never entirely banish risk. Because to banish risk is to banish opportunity.
Okay, first I probably should explain why I think we live in a time of great opportunity: Some of it is obvious. Take AI for instance. Yes, I know there is over and mal-investment, but let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater. As soon as “managers” stop trying to push it into all sorts of things it can’t and will never do and let people who understand it use it, it will be a great boon to productivity and yes creativity, because it can do the donkey work and leave the actually creative humans to do the creative bits. Yes, it will UNDOUBTEDLY benefit the most accomplished and creative over the raw beginners (and ruin a lot of raw beginners too lazy to learn the donkey work so they can check it.) Tell me some new technology that didn’t in fact do that. For is it not written, to them who have more shall be given? Same as it ever was. And while laziness is not a capital crime (that’s stupidity) it always enacts a penalty.
But the thing is that as far as I can tell almost every field, not just AI is on the verge of just such a kind of breakthrough, marred only by the fact that for reasons known only to the psychiatrists we don’t have (no, really) our country (and countries around the world) decided it was a great idea to outsource science and research to the government, which as we all know destroys everything it touches. Only it seems to be losing its capacity to destroy and abolish and can — at best — delay things. And even that not indefinitely.
Then there’s politics. Look, yes, I go through times of fear and terror because we are on a knife edge, but listen you, we’ve been on a knife edge since our great republic was instituted. The sense we weren’t at some point is a great lie propagated by old people who remember the past fondly. What we have going for us right now is that Trump and Musk (and others, mind you) are aware what’s at stake is no less than their lives. If the left gets any power again, not only them but their entire families and loved ones will be dead one way or another. These powerful men don’t intend to be killed. So, possess your souls in patience and let them figure it out.
Of course the left is at a big disadvantage because they can ONLY keep their dominance when they control the entire flow of information, which is, at this point, impossible.
I’m not saying it’s all plain sailing. The enemy — and in this case they ARE enemies — gets a vote. BUT we have the advantage.
All of this combined are really great news and also terrible.
Why terrible? Because none of these things from information technology to AI to new automated manufacturing processes that render China’s slave labor obsolete say confined where they’re intended to stay.
What I mean is everything has third, fourth, fifth order effects. Remember the internet was supposed to facilitate military communication. Looks at blog. You can bet the left didn’t intend to lose their control on news and written media. And yet, here we are.
The loosening of new tech upon the world at a fast pace disrupts everything. The term is Catastrophic Innovation. Humans aren’t equipped to change their lives that fast.
On top of that, well, the attempts at retaining control like the entire idiocy of Covid and the theft of the elections (which was the reason for the covidiocy) rip the mask some more.
At this point very few people believe in our institutions and “the way to do things.” Which to be fair is deserved as all of that was the flimsy order imposed by FDR. Again, the only reason it took hold and stayed on was because control of the flow of information was part of the deal.
Now?
Now we’re in one of those rare times in history when anything is possible.
What do I mean? 1776 was one such, when we departed from the way things had always been done. And with great opportunity came great peril, too: Glares at the French Revolution.
The fun part is that our constitution, designed for a small government, is still the best for the new ways. While the modernizations (supposed) of the 20th century are old and busted, because they sought to impose the massive top-down control of mass manufacturing to people. Which doesn’t work.
So, will we get through this okay? Yeah, I think and hope so. At least in the US, because we do have the blueprint and the knack of spontaneous organization.
The rest of the world? Who knows? And even here we will go through some pretty terrible times/places, I guarantee it.
Thing is, you can’t break an order once it’s established. You need some great tech or location upheaval to even return to an earlier, better organization.
The communists weren’t wrong about that. The old order needs to shake apart and people need to reject it. It’s just that what they want to impose never worked and will never work. It leads to the tyranny of the darkest, most absolute monarchies. (North Korea, Cuba, too many examples to list them all.)
But the old order is shaking lose of itself, because it was never sustainable.
And we have a chance.
It is our very great privilege to be alive at this time. We must fight through the peril to the hope. In our hearts and minds, more than anything.
Be not afraid. This is no time to go wobbly.
According To Hoyt 
I read a comment that we should really max use of “AI” before big tech turns it all to advertising. Chat is too late but Grok continues to impress.
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The Reader recently used Grok for the first time to get a summary of the pros and cons of a minimally invasive vs traditional open chest approach for the mitral valve repair surgery he needs later this year. The summary had some different statistics than the surgeon the Reader saw did, although after the Reader slogged through the references, it is clear that the ‘studies’ and ‘meta studies’ are pushing the minimally invasive approach for its shorter hospital stays and that the outcome differences are close to statistical noise. The most relevant detail, not mentioned by the surgeon I saw who only does the traditional open chest version, and at the bottom of the Grok summary, was time on the heart lung machine – it is notably longer with the minimally invasive approach. The Reader is now better informed when he goes for a 2nd opinion. Thank you Grok.
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I’ve been using it as a fact checker and debate interlocutor. I find that Grok is very good at identifying the conventional wisdom but will also bring heterodox opinions to bear. However, I think the lawyers have been getting at it too since health questions seem to be more hair on fire than they had been. Anyway, and unless Elon is captured by different aliens, I’m using grok and not that Gatesian psychopath chat thing.
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Thank you for this!
Wishing you luck when you have the procedure.
I too, get to undergo this later this year, or sooner, TBD. New news here. I learned about the valve problem when it cropped up 6-months ago with all the Afib diagnosis. Three years ago the valve problem was not detectable, rather the PC doctor thought he heard something, but the cardiogram showed nothing. When I was in for the Afib last June, PC heard something (wasn’t in Afib at the time) so cardiogram, again. This time the mitral valve problem found. So with the two, off to the heart doctor I go. Medication increased from 3 (glaucoma, rosea, arthritis), two prescriptions and one OTC. After heart doctor, 9 medications, added for cholesterol and Afib. Now 7 prescriptions and 2 OTC. Nothing for the “minor, replacement in 5 to 10 years” mitral valve.
Locally, second opinions, I’ll have to see what happens. Haven’t gotten as far as to meet with a heart surgeon. Just the team.
Six months follow-up with heart doctor. Cardiogram and carotid scan (because of father’s medical history, but nothing there). Also, 6 months, eye doctor (regular, but every 6 months because glaucoma). Here is my sequence of events:
Eye doctor:
“Glaucoma good. Same pressure as for last 10+ years. Cataracts OTOH are impeding on lens …” Went home, talked to hubby, son, mom (who has had the procedure). Called in, “let’s do this”. Went in for more extensive follow-up with eye doctor/surgeon. Confirmation of better now than wait. Scheduled the two procedures (first one is this Wednesday, Feb. 11) and follow-up. This was a week ago, last Friday, Jan 30.
Heart Clinic:
Last Monday, heart clinic calls. Mitral valve is significantly worse, need a stress cardiogram to determine how bad, and start meeting with the team. Wait! What? And, UM, see cataract surgery schedule (stress cardiogram is probably not advised until end of March). Phone tag ensues. March 23, is soon enough for the stress cardiogram. The cataract surgery must be signed off by the heart team (it is; not full anesthesia, just “twilight” sedation).
The first meeting, to go over what mitral valve is and replacement options, was last Thursday, Feb 5. Learn afib vs valve and why not related (one is plumbing, the other is electrical. Although one of the “possible” consequences for valve replacement is a small percentage for afib, eventually with either option. “Eventually?” Already have afib.) Also learn, “significant difference in scans from 6 months ago to current.” Just need to know if current status is critical or not (thus the stress cardiogram). Also scheduled Mar 24 for coronary angiogram. Former will determine if process needs to continue and can cancel Mar 24 (hopefully?), or not.
Now did covid (since had it twice in two years), or the covid vaccine (we went to Canada) cause the problem? Not that I’d ever prove, despite the suddenness of it all. Why? History. Childhood illnesses are known causes (I’ve had measles, both kinds, rubella, and suspected rheumatic fever as I was prone to bad strep throat). Family genetics. Dad’s and his brothers’ problems were their arteries (heart bypasses), not valve. His sisters’ heart problems OTOH are heart valve related (plus, dad’s cousins and their children).
I have had no, none, zero, other signs the heart clinic lists related to heart valve problems. Beyond which I’ve dealt with for no reason since childhood, migraines and dizziness.
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This is what I’ve found too. Even the afib complication. Given I have afib before any procedure, my response is “And …?”
I haven’t been pushed either way, yet. There are two tests that will allow or eliminate the less invasive option. I know I have deeper and smaller veins, from blood draws (tests and donations). What isn’t known, is their state and odds of triggering stroke.
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Interesting.
The hospital stay and follow-up recovery are notably shorter with the minimally invasive approach.
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Same as it ever was….
Brooks, Mythical Man-Month, 1961
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I follow a cruise video blogger because someday I will vacation, pinky swear. And his topic last night was what on earth was this web page saying?! And the answer was someone (probably a non native speaker) fed keywords into an AI essay writer and took the raw results and posted it. It was like Engrish with a hangover. Good times.
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Oh yeah. But I would be illiterate university student, not non-native speaker.
SIGH.
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Or my favorites:
Non-native speaker of either English or the language being translated into English, unpaid student intern.
Or (no reason this cannot be “and”) worse:
Marketing staff.
Personal experience with the latter. The individual spoke and wrote English. For some reason, I as the developer/programmer, was always telling end users where to find the information in the “documentation”, then later translating it. Worked a lot better (as I got no calls from our internal first level support) when the individual’s replacement required (allowed) my input on organization, and review of content, and markup of pictures (I’d originally sent). Then the original individual came back and learned how much had been gutted (marketing), and rearranged. Said individual might have had a tantrum (by any other name). But that is another story.
I have seen what I suspect is the former in software I’ve used (or tried to use).
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Some here have even admitted they’ve used the software I mentioned.
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Have a friend who is normally quite sensible but almost irrationally anti-AI (stolen artwork, water use) and it’s starting to worry me, since, as I say, they’re normally quite rational. Is there anything I could direct them to to help calm their fears?
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Yes. water is not consumed. It’s recycled. if you can show him he’s been lied to, this might help.
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The “trained on stolen artwork” part might be the real stumbling block, as they are artistically inclined.
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A lot of that will depend on him having a view of theft that doesn’t change depending on if a thing is done by a human directly, or by a human directing a computer.
Because the “stolen art work” was publicly displayed, and no interpretation of “fair use” is so strict that you are not allowed to analyze how something put out for viewing is made.
The way the AI art works is based off of trying to figure out how humans learn.
… unfortunately, as I said, it requires examining standards, and heaven knows I’m familiar enough with folks who thought that being the first in a market with an item should give them monopoly over anyone else being allowed to do something they found too similar. (Art fairs. Nearly typed fart airs. Not wrong for some of the entitled screamers who decided they have a right to door harps because they feel they had the idea first.)
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People who do art learn from duplicating other art. Been that way from before Monet, Da Vinci, and any artist that creates something (leaving out some so-called modern art). Where did forgeries come from before AI and computers?
First to market, means just that. Nothing less, nothing more. This point is repeatably noted on Shark Tank.
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As someone who is watching this play out locally, that argument might not be entirely persuasive, depending on where the friend is located. The initial water draw of the first data center in this region will take an enormous slug of municipal water, from a system that has annual water-draw limits. Other parts of the country, it might not be such a concern as out here.
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‘A.I.’ is nothing more than a new way to organize and process data. Just like ‘5G’ uses the exact same signals as ‘4G’ with more efficient encoding. Neither one can cause cancer or take over your brain.
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A bit off-topic.
“Beware of the Anti-Fascist because what he really wants is Fascism with him in control.”
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Forgot to click the box. [Embarrassed]
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Big Auntie
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Two questions I always want to ask those Leftroids on the news and Yoo-Toob:
What do you believe, and why do you believe it?
Do you even know the difference between truth and lies?
Any time I’ve seen an interviewer get close to the first question, the Leftroid starts screeching ‘White Supremacy! RRRAAACISSST!!!’ because they do not know what they believe, or why.
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The only real solution is to TURN OFF THE MONEY SPIGOT. Any entity that collects over a trillion dollars/year, and dispenses even more draws evil and corruption like a giant dungheap draws flies. We had a good start with DOGE, but the outright money-laundering of taxpayer money to Democrat politicians and riot and revolution fomenting groups like the teachers’ unions and so-called NGOs gives Trump an excellent opportunity to turn off the money and dry up the swamp. End federal medicaid. End tax deductions for so-called charitable foundations.
As to science funding, that will have to come along for the ride, but I’ve seen what government funded science and government funded universities do. I don’t envy Trump and his labors of Hercules to end the system, but I wish him luck, and I’ll cheer him on.
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I’ve got a better idea. Rather than ending special tax exemptions for certain parties, just stop taxing everybody! What could be more fair than that?
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You dream bigger than I do. Good luck with that.
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The problem becomes “Caesar is insufficient”. Gaius Julius Caesar didn’t radically change much at all. His main demands were the items that traditionally went to a “successful” Roman of the Army sort. His rivals in the Senate sought to geld him by denying him the traditional due. In hindsight, this was a bad idea. But Gaius Julius Caesar did not change much at all of Rome, but did change who was directing the mob holding the Senate. And, at the end, the Senate changed him more that he changed Rome.
The guy who mostly re-wrote the Roman book was that fellow Octavian, or as he came to be known Augustus Caesar. He kept up appearances and traditions, but he rebuilt the Roman Republic state almost entirely as his personal empire, and in a shockingly short time. Augustus -made- it an Empire, in every meaningful way. The possibly apocryphal boast was finding a city of brick and leaving one of marble. Thus to even foes “Augustus”.
Trump is unlikely to induce a major change in how things of USA work, although he may seriously impact the -balance- of forces for a time. He may even leave an organization in place that continues the cleanup work, be it MAGA or the Republican party or his kids. I think Trump, Like Gaius before him, too much loves the country that -is- to rewrite it as an empire. (Despite fools shrieking otherwise.)
The sonofabeech we need to watch is the follow on one that seems to have bigger ambitions. “Pave the Swamp”, versus draining it. or the one who wants to “put it back”. Either way, the -next- SOB is the one to keep tightly leashed.
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I mostly use A.I. for writing fanfiction. Even as a painter creating new art with it doesn’t impress me too much. It’s just a tool like any other. You really only get back what you put into it.
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I’ve been thinking about the possible future of AI, and I suspect, in the generations that grow up with it, everyone will have their own personal wingman / assistant and they will be outgrowths of imaginary friends, favorite characters from when they were kids, or sports of a family patron. And that will probably vary from cultural group to cultural group.
While I suspect their will be a wave of ‘adult companions’ I expect that will mostly be in the population who came upon them in adulthood, not the ones who grow up with them.
I also sort of suspect they will function at least partly as the mental lubricant to deal with high rates of change and disruption. They’re good at offering suggestions, maybe not great ones, but things you can actually do that may or may not work. Which can be enough to get someone moving and thinking again.
I also expect as the field develops, the models will condense and localize, to the point we will be running them locally. We’ve already seen some of that, but I expect once they taper out in intelligence, that’s where the focus will immediately turn to.
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It would make a great book, life with AI’s guiding the young into adulthood. Then the AI’s died, or were taken over…
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Danger will Robinson, anyone?
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I’m not sure it would work like that. It would be like all the dogs dying all at once.
Except, it would have to either destroy their data or destroy their models, because they aren’t really intertwined. Just destroying the model would leave all their history intact. Just destroying their data would leave the model intact.
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Don’t give up. When the worst comes, you’ll know what to do. And sometimes there’s not shite to do.
My younger brother by 3 years collapsed Saturday at work and died. 63, and healthy. Until he wasn’t.
Keep going, even when it’s hard. Good things come in time.
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My condolences. That sort of thing is shocking to the core.
Personally, dropping dead doing something professional I like is a -good- ending for me. I have seen much, much worse ways to go to one’s maker. But the lightswitch option is rather hard on the living, as there is no transition, just -BAM-.
I had an opportunity to make sure I said needed things to my sister. Then she went into surgery and never came out of anesthesia, dying officially a month after the reality.
Be up front and up to date with the folks you love (like, tolerate, etc), and then there are no regrets of “if only I had said…”
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The Reader sends condolences and prayers.
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*Long distance hug* Prayer flag raised for you and yours, Kathy.
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My condolences.
Sudden unexpected death is hard. Even expected, it is hard, but harder out of left field.
Dad’s death was expected. He was in home hospice. He fell the morning he died. Mom had to call for paramedics to help him up. Hospice delivered a hospital bed that afternoon. We got the call late that night. We’re a mile away. No clue we made it time. We think we did.
FIL, we’d been expecting the call for weeks, months. He wasn’t supposed to make it home after his last heart-attack, let alone until Thanksgiving, then Christmas, then Easter. When the call came, we were shocked. We were sure, by then, that sheer stubbornness would let him hear that the grandchild was born. FIL died 6 weeks before last grandson’s birth.
Paternal grandmother died overnight. She didn’t wake up. She was at her oldest daughter’s house for Christmas the day before (where most of the “babies”, great-grands, were for holidays). Surprise? Even though she was weeks from being 80? Yes.
Great-uncle was found collapsed between their house and the barn. Heart attack. Age, 60-something. Unexpected.
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My big frustration with (what is currently called) AI is that so many of the pro-and-con decisions being made that affect millions are being made off of “we promise it will soon be able to….” (do something miraculous, or incredibly dystopian). These promises are made by marketing-minded CEO-types and are often flagrantly farcical flights of fantasy. The ones not only buying the hype but deciding millions of jobs on it, who _should know better by now_ are also CEO types, yet somehow they’re _blind_ to the possibility that straw might not turn into gold overnight. It’s just like trying to point out the follies in an article to a journalist who knows how the sausage is made – somehow this wild claim that someone else wrote is inerrant, even though they could quote you a dozen counterexamples if it was an article they disagreed with.
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