This is a compilation of how the ebook front looks to me at the moment. Things might look completely different to the next person over, particularly if the next person over knows more about publishing than I do (which isn’t as easy as it used to be, but is also not impossible.) I thought it might interest those of you who are on the outside or not professionally involved in the field.
First let me tell you that a lot of the stuff you hear about ebooks and how everyone is reading ebooks is just pie in the sky. It is talk that is familiar to me – and has been for a while – because ebooks have been talked about in every possible venue (and some impossible ones) for the about twenty years I’ve been paying attention to the market.
Long before I sold my very first short story – heck, long before I sent it out – I was attending conferences in which some minor agent or editor solemnly informed us that the coming thing was ebooks and it would upend all of publishing. Or else that the coming thing was novels with active content.
It went on for so long, in fact, that everyone – this included, I think, most of the NY publishing establishment – gave up on it and decided ebooks were a lie. I started hearing theories on why they’d never come: book readers are inherently more conservative than game players; books on paper are a sensuous experience – etc.
Of course now things are different. Now we have Amanda Hocking and such, surprise bestsellers created by epublishing.
But are things different? Really? There have always been “self published bestsellers”, what we used to call “books from the back of the van.” Look up The Celestine Prophecy. Twelve years ago I attended the Pikes Peak Writers conference and – as an unpublished author – was told my best shot was to publish my own book, “with a nice cover” and then send it that way to the publishers, who were then more likely to buy it. “Particularly if you’ve hand-sold 500 copies or so yourself.” Was this true? I don’t know. Just as I don’t know if Dean Wesley Smith’s advice that I do a POD of a book, then send it to editors with a specific letter on what rights I’m willing to sell would work. It might. Or it might not. It SHOULD. But… are we there yet?
Gut feeling? No. We’re not there yet. I think we’ll be. I do think there’s a future for writing and for writers. Whether there will be a lost generation first, that’s something I can’t answer. I will give, though, as a shred of hope, the fact that this whole thing is moving much faster than I expected. OTOH keep in mind it’s moving much slower than industry insiders expected twenty years ago.
So, here’s a snapshot of the battle as I see it right now. Remember, in a large battle all a foot soldier can see is the area around herself. Over a few dozen feet it might be completely different.
Here’s what I see – through the email lists I belong to, through reading articles and gleaning numbers from whispered comments – most writers aren’t making a living from their own ebooks yet. In fact, all the way from high mid list to raw beginner, the numbers are startlingly consistent and run in the mid hundreds at best – or about 10% even the suckiest publisher printrun.
This is for fiction and specifically for genre fiction. It’s entirely possible that it’s completely different for non fiction and how to books. I wouldn’t know.
It’s possible the reason for this is that – by publisher choice of what to publish – genre readership has been graying. They are now at best late middle age, a time when people don’t adopt technology very fast. But the graying of the readership was a problem before ebooks, and one we’ll have to contend with anyway.
The fact that romance is the one genre bucking this trend – they sell much better in ebooks, sometimes amazingly well – would indicate this hypothesis is correct, as romance has the least gray readership.
However, these numbers, small though they are, have the industry in a tailspin. How much they’d have been in a tailspin anyway, and are simply using this to cover up their issues, I don’t know. The industry is opaque, autocratic and as I’ve mentioned elsewhere not only cut itself off from market signals, but considered this cutting off a good thing. (Economics, they iz doing it wrong.)
I’ll note in passing that Baen is having a banner year, despite some glitches with their conference, and despite the fact their ebooks aren’t available on Amazon. They do, otoh, try to stay in touch with their audience and publish what the readers want.
So for the midlister like myself the choice is scant. On the one hand the publishing industry which gave us ulcers seems to be imploding. Yay. OTOH it is no longer providing the contracts it once did and which kept us alive at least at a subsistence level. Uh Oh. On the one hand various things coming out seem to indicate that our readership really was always larger than they said. Yay. OTOH that readership doesn’t seem to be present in ebooks. The dame or the tiger. Choose, but choose now.
I’m not quite in that boat. For one I work for Baen (Yay) for another I’ve got contracts between Baen and other companies to be very busy for another year and a half (Yay) at almost my normal income (Yay.) On the other hand, a book turned in to a company not Baen three months ago has yet to be accepted/scheduled, and I have no clue what is going on since the editor is not answering me. (Uh Oh.) And payments seem to come later and later (very uh oh, and the reason – watch this space – there will be a “subscribe to Sarah” program.)
But I’m still in that boat, as I look further ahead. I have no reason to believe my relationship with Baen won’t continue. However, as per Laurell K. Hamilton (thanks Laurell) one shouldn’t work for a single publisher. Security and sanity demand spreading out the risk. Also, to be blunt, I write mystery too and the sort of dark fantasy Baen is not a good outlet for.
So, the Titanic is sinking, but I’m floating atop the grand piano.
It is my belief that as books collapse more – and they seem to be – ebooks can’t help but rise. Market abhors a vaccum. (Except Dyson.)
Because of economies of scale, I see no reason that ebooks can’t support writers. As more people self-publish it will become obvious it is NOT as widespread an ability as most people think (look at most slush piles) and also that more people are willing to read more, if their tastes – not the distributors – are catered to. It’s an underserved market.
But writers might need to write more – which I can probably do, once I’m past this tight spot of contracted books and books I really want to do for Baen and that I’m fairly sure Toni will take. I mean, I can write six books a year. Have done it. And I suspect Baen can’t take all of them, not unless this next book sells beyond all expectations and not unless Toni takes an interest in mystery or vampires (and not just to set them on fire, as per Larry Correia, though his methods are great too.)
I think writing will become as it once was, in the hallowed days of pulp. The book itself doesn’t make much money, but it stays in print forever and once you have a back list it will feed you comfortably.
Will it become that in time for me to have a healthy career? Who knows. All I know I that the field as it existed has exploded. You can’t put humpty dumpty together again.
All births are messy. All births involve blood and pain and the possibility of death for both parent and child. The solution, though, is not to try to keep the child in the womb till college (which is what some of the main stream presses seem to be betting on.) Once labor starts it has to progress. And once a baby is in there, it will have to come out (a realization that gave me the horrors five months into my first pregnancy.)
So I see nothing for it but put my shoulder under the load and heave up. Even if I’m afraid to end up as the Fallen Caryatid.
In the end it helps to remember that publishing wasn’t pushed. It threw itself down the cliff. And it is only the appearance of ebooks that allows most writers today to have hope of making a decent living someday.