
The future is fractal.
Okay, that’s probably bullshit, but it sounds better than saying “We can’t predict the future at all, stay frosty.”
This is also not exactly true, but it’s as true as we can make it, in human words, right now. Yeah, sure, the future is still probably composed of days, and the people experiencing it will be human (If not no, what’s the point?) etc, etc, world without end.
But that’s not what I’m talking about. The future I refer to here is the future we prepare for. And the future work and earning activities we specifically prepare for, to be exact. You know, the things education used to do.
Mind you, education never did that very well, but it tended to adapt with the times- ish.
For instance, education always thought in its own internal forums that it was about something it really wasn’t. Like in the middle ages it probably — not sure, wasn’t there. Stop laughing — thought it was about making better and more knowledgeable Christians. Clerics/clerks for the massive church bureaucracy extending across Europe. And it was, sort of, maybe. But what it actually was doing was creating a learned class that could read and write and speak a lingua franca, which allowed diplomacy and commerce to go on. The more were needed, the more the learning apparatus became bigger and more complex and more internationally respected.
Then as education turned to practical things, in the great industrialization, things that used to be considered at best shady crafts like medicine and engineering became part of the system, and people got the stamp of approval of officialdom to practice their craft, for which there was increasingly more need.
Meanwhile, because late-stage industrial revolution needed literate and at least somewhat educated workers, child labor was forbidden and minimum education made the state’s responsibility.
Then things went weird. Partly because, I think, the left thinks an uneducated “proletariat” is more likely to suit their needs. Partly because all states got alarmed and saw people who could actually think as a threat. And partly because they just suck, yo.
So public, mandatory education turned into indoctrination factories. Twenty years ago, I already had trouble finding college freshmen who could express themselves in writing with any degree of clarity.
Look, I’m not being picky. It wasn’t “oh, no, you used the passive voice.” Dear Lord, no. It was more like the best had sentences that made sense by themselves, they just didn’t add up to a coherent meaning. The very best had a paragraph that made sense. The rest made you go “What even?” And the majority just made no sense whatsoever.
The only way to explain it is that they’d learned whole word reading, and therefore thought of words as symbols. But because as symbols written words are very complicated, they only really remembered first and last letter — which was all that was required in school, since they knew the context, and it was all multiple choice — so, claimant was the same word as complaint was the same word as concomitant and what actually got typed was part the student and part the word processor fixing it.
The result was… well, AI is not that bad. And these were people I’d meet or talk to on the phone, who made perfect sense in speech, but weren’t in any way literate, not even vaguely, particularly since they read by the same method.
These people could even, sometimes, write sensible messages on the level of “went shopping” or “where are you?” but anything out of the every day and super-common left them floundering because, again, they weren’t in any way shape or form literate.
I understand that has got worse, with the result that after 12 years of state schooling, most colleges find themselves teaching very elementary reading and math.
And I want to make this clear, this is not the fault of the kids in any way. It’s the schooling that has gotten…. bureaucratized, clerisized (in the original sense. Most teaching schools are temples of the Marxist cult) and rendered anti-teaching. Look, kids would be more literate if left to loiter on street corners, okay?
Now, obviously, most kids learn to read and write, at least somewhat once they’re out of the government prison schools. Over the next ten years all of them — the ones who go to college and the ones who don’t — seem to be come more or less literate, and many even learn to read for fun.
But they should be doing it much, much earlier, okay? And the solution is not to make university free or mandatory. That will just delay their achieving literacy.
In fact, university, free or not is not the solution for anything. With increasing frequency, and depending on the area of the country, if university is the answer, the question is very, very stupid.
It took me forever to realize this. And even longer to realize why. I imagine it’s worse for those embedded in the University system.
Look, guys, I only realized the problem with traditional publishing because having achieved just below top rank success, I realized how little that was, and started digging at why. (Yes, I’m part terrier. Deal.) If I’d been a publisher, editor or an enormously successful author, I might never have started that dig, and never realized that most houses had traded “being commercially successful” (I.e. selling, i.e. what their job was) for “Educating the people” and “Looking good at the cocktail parties me and my homies all attend.”
I’m not inside the university system, though I connived in sending both my kids through it in what might have been the most spectacular misuse of influence and wealth in my life, and the thing I regret most after not homeschooling.
And now you’re all looking at me like I lost my mind. No, listen. These are not your father’s universities. Except in the ways they are, which makes the whole thing worse.
The way they’re not is the way they’ve become just one more avenue for continuing indoctrination and trying the whole Diversity Inclusion and Equity, which is and should be DIE because that’s what it is. More and more the professors, openly or not, view as their job to let minorities and particularly women have the best grades and graduation rates and succeed. This is why University is a terrible bargain for girls more than for boys. They are given the impression they know a lot; actually know nothing; hit the world and become convinced patriarchy is holding them down.
The way they are exactly what they were in your father’s (and my father’s) day is that they are admirably preparing people for the 20th century. Except they’re doing this in an environment where memorizing factoids is counterproductive since the computers in our pocket can give us those instantly. (I’m not against stupid memorization. That’s my other regret. I should have made the kids memorize poems and factoids when they were tiny. You who have small children should do this, all the time. Turns out memory is a muscle. It needs to be exercised. But it doesn’t make much sense in terms of a pedagogical or the main pedagogical objective.) So memorizing long lists of “if/then” is mostly ridiculous, and doesn’t benefit the student. And examining them on those is even more so, which is why we’ve become more and more paranoid about cheating to the stupid point.
The other thing that doesn’t make much sense is the whole hierarchy of learning. Sure, professors who got their degrees a bazillion years ago, like me, are very well informed of the basics of the field. You know, the things you can acquire in a week, with some study online and a few lectures that are free. What is missing is how to apply it to the current age.
Yes, I know I sound like the educators saying “but they don’t need to read. The computer can do that for them.” but I’m actually the opposite. They should have all the very basic abilities. On that they should layer an ability to pick up the more advanced bits as needed. And move on to other advanced bits. Because information and data are more available now than they ever were.
What we’re doing instead is dinning into their heads a narrative where the certification and the blessing from the “experts” is all important. Which is counterproductive. And unbelievably stupid.
What we should be training… well…. reasoning from facts and factoids. Flexibility. Innovation. Ability reason from present conditions and find the best place and time to improve them.
The kids — eh, for me anyone 45 and under — have amazing opportunities at their disposal, and college is — at best — putting blinders on them.
More importantly, it is rendering them unfit for a future where the best security is multiple streams of income, the best guarantee of excelling is to be able to take your losses, roll with the punches and emerge whole on the other side, and the best guarantee of a middle class life is stubborn refusal to give up.
The universities, particularly for highly specialized careers consume a person’s entire youth: six, seven or ten years. Heck, the typical bachelors is now six years, and no, that’s not the students’ fault. Universities multiply and maximize time needed to complete in order to keep being paid more.
The problem is, we do need something like universities. Yes, I know, people can pick up most of it on the fly. But specialized stuff like medicine, engineering, law, physics, etc. still need to be taught. For things like the first three which honestly are all more art than anything else, apprenticeships would work best, given an alternate licensing system. It is my guess too that being ossified those places will be the last to admit it. Honestly, business administration too need apprenticeship more than college.
But Physics, math, chemistry, etc. all the advance, specialized fields need … something like university. Just mostly not university as it is now.
But we even need or could use a university system for the liberal arts. We don’t realize that because those fields were turned into indoctrination first. But I have a friend who used to teach art history, and we do need that, because it’s like a message sent to us from the past. More importantly we need to be able to analyze real history and real economics, and sharpen our wits one against the other, until we find solutions for present problems, or track down where we went very wrong.
We need it particularly because the world is changing at speed. Not in social mores or that, which are imposed from above, in the great part, but in technology. Each bit of technology has repercussions no one is tracking or fully understanding, to the point the crisis in commercial real estate took the idiots in charge by surprise, though it’s been coming for twenty years and was made inevitable for the covidiocy. Instead, as in the days of Noah when they married and were given in marriage until they drowned, our “business administrators” were building and buying showier and bigger headquarters until lockdown. Or even after. Into which they now can’t herd employees at any price in the world. (And why a lot of them went under.)
This is daft. I saw teleworking coming for most desk jobs 20 years ago, and mentioned it here at least 12 years ago.
But these people were educated to think that things don’t change. They don’t learn the basics, but boy do they learn dogma. More unchangeable dogma than any pope ever processed.
So, yes. We need “something like college.” We might need it at multiple times through a life in which tech and jobs will change a few times. What form it takes, I don’t know, but my guess is it will not resemble at all the live in/don’t have a job on the side, etc. etc.
I feel, more than think, because this is not my area and I’m sure there’s factors I don’t know or underestimate (none of them being providing a happy environment for beardo the weirdo, who needs to retire or become a barista already), that what would work is labs and perhaps classes for things that absolutely must be done in groups. (Fewer than anyone thinks, except for stuff like chemistry.) For the rest? Assigned subjects with recorded lectures that can be taken at any time and discussions in something like a discord group, to sharpen mind against mind. Perhaps tutors to oversee groups of students (more like England, or the early-modern system.) And exams. Lots and lots of exams, including certification exams, some of which will be more valuable than others.
The objective should be to learn and become flexible in your ability to analyze facts and to move from “expertise” to “expertise” and adapt when tech wacks their job upside the head and they have to learn something different.
Basics are important, and being able to discuss and adapt what you know is important. But that’s not what we’re training.
For you people with promising kids, yes, sure, things like welding or HVAC do pay for now, but I’m also afraid of those fields becoming crowded. If they absolutely must go to college, try to push them into fields where the training is short because the time, let alone the money, is a massive sunk cost, which in a time when everything changes very fast is not wroth it.
And if you can make sure they have paying hobbies, and two or three sources of income.
Because multiple streams of income, and a wide ability is the best way to stay employed and profitable.
As for us, who are at an age that at any other time would be retirement… well, you know what you’re depending on for retirement. But for most of us it is a losing proposition, both in terms of maybe the money being there, and in terms of us living a lot longer than people used to. You’ll get bored.
So– stay flexible, learn more, multiple streams of income.
And don’t get so wedded to your view of how things are that you can’t change when your job becomes obsolete. Or perhaps something completely different.
Stay ready; stay flexible. Keep riding the wave.




















































