Black Swan

Posted on by Sarah A. Hoyt

The first time I heard of deer-blinds — in this case a platform, up on a tree — it was of someone — a kid of 12 — dying because he’d been so still so long that a blood clot, formed from his position against the side, migrating to his heart and killing him.

Metaphorically speaking, I’m that kid, atop that duck blind. Only I’m waiting for the black swan to erupt.

Which is both insane and counterproductive. My watching for it or not won’t make the black swan erupt.

By definition a black swan is an event you can’t predict, which changes everything.

And part of me thinks that this obsessive — it’s interfering with life, because I have to check through the news so often — checking and watching is wishful thinking, because the depressive thinks we’re headed to h*ll in a hand-basket that’s already on fire. But part of me refuses to give up, and is hoping. Hoping for the event that turns everything upside down.

Except this doesn’t feel like hoping. Or waiting hopefully. More like….

Okay, so I went through a lot of fire-seasons in Colorado, some worse than others. Twice, we had the radio on all the time, waiting for the order to evacuate. Once a friend left our dinner party to rush home to pick up stuff so he could evacuate. (He didn’t lose his house, turned out, but it came this close.) And at least once, we had everything in the car that we absolutely couldn’t afford to lose, and our important documents in a briefcase, in case word came in the night. And took turns sleeping, so the other could be awakened.

This is what it feels like, though I be covered in fish and called Persephone if I have any clue what urgent action I’d need to take should the black swan take flight. Particularly since I don’t know where the black swan is, when it will appear, or–

Look, chances are it’s something really big, far away from me. My knowing about it the first five minutes will make absolutely no difference.

And yet, here I am atop the deer, duck, black swan blind, afraid to move or make a sound and startle it was it starts and —

Why do I think a black swan event is about to happen?

Part of it is “Because it feels like it is” and part is, because there have been a series of black swans flying recently. Actually a lot of them.

Some were sort of predictable, like the stolen election. I mean, given the lockdowns, but the lockdowns themselves, and the cascade of crazy that followed was a black swan. The Canadian — CANADIAN! — trucker convoy was a black swan. What is going on in TX is a black swan. BUT on a less happy note, 10/7 in Israel was also a black swan. And way, way, way back? The USSR falling. Just collapsing. The collapse was baked in, but…. like that?

Once black swans start taking flight, they seem to come closer and closer.

Digging deeper: A black swan is something you wouldn’t believe if someone told you about it before it happens. Sometimes, dream or nightmare, something you end up thinking you dreamed up, and keep trying to snap out of it and wake up.

So, why would they be coming closer: Well, because we’re living in an era of high instability.

Partly because of catastrophic innovation. And partly because the “blue model” — the centralized governance and society model slapped on the US by FDR and on the rest of the world at various points of the 20th century– is falling apart. It’s falling apart because it’s run as far as it could, and it’s starting to fail. A centralized model always fails, and this one lasted a long time, because it left bits of freedom around the edges. Less and less as time went on. Till it’s gobbled up almost all areas of innovation and privacy. Not all. Not yet. But it passed some critical point, and it’s falling apart.

The number of people telling you exactly what the curvature of bananas should be has grossly outnumbered the people who know how to grow bananas, or even how to make banana bread. At that point society can’t work, because the people regulating the curvature of bananas are starting to branch out to the ovalness of eggs. And no one knows — or is allowed — to do the essential. And things start collapsing. Combine it with the literal culture shock of changing tech, and you’re in unknown territory.

Most of us my age or twenty years either way have already changed our lives so much in our lifetimes that my having literally changed continents is a minor thing in comparison.

Oh, another black swan: A university president was pulled down and her record revealed utterly fake. And the ivy leagues are in the process of discrediting themselves.

So many black swans in the last 3 or 4 years, and coming closer and closer and closer.

And because the left is trying to play the 20th century communist revolution script, including trying to make people share their houses (they had to import destitute for that!) only none of it applies properly to the US and to current tech, or current popular sentiment, I keep expecting them to unwittingly provoke a massive convulsion, similar to the fall of the USSR or the tearing down of the wall.

Something that just happens, one day. Good or bad? Oh, it could fall either way.

Now, is it likely to have anything to do with me, directly? Or be something that an early warning could help?

Unlikely, short of us all having to run to the most distant member of the family, or his having to run to us. And both are unlikely for various reasons. Possible, but highly unlikely even in a black-swan event.

And yet–

And yet I feel like I need to stay vigilant and sit here and watch for the first signs….

Just up here, in the black-swan blind, watching the shifting darkness for movement.

And waiting.

284 thoughts on “Black Swan”

  1. Woke up and prayed this morning, Phil 4:6 Be anxious for nothing but in everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God; 7 and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus. My anxiety is nothing like this big black thing, just work stuff, but it still applies and gets us to move forward in his peace

    Liked by 1 person

    1. John, 14:27

      Peace I leave with you, my peace I give unto you: not as the world giveth, give I unto you. Let not your heart be troubled, neither let it be afraid.

      For the LDS among us
      D&C 122:7
      And if thou shouldst be cast into the pit, or into the hands of murderers, and the sentence of death passed upon thee; if thou be cast into the deep; if the billowing surge conspire against thee; if fierce winds become thine enemy; if the heavens gather blackness, and all the elements combine to hedge up the way; and above all, if the very jaws of hell shall gape open the mouth wide after thee, know thou, my son, that all these things shall give thee experience, and shall be for thy good.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Is it good that I’m cynical enough the Black Swans are mostly no surprise? Other than turning Otter when the wall fell (and oh boy, was it great), I was so nonplussed(the ironic North American version) by 9/11 a buddy asked wtf was up with me, wasn’t I shocked, and no, I wasn’t. Closest thing of late was Trump actually winning over the fraud of 2016 . . . shocked? no, more a pleasant surprise. Now that it shocked others was a side benefit.

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  3. I’m sure the shenanigans in the Middle East do not augur well. Not Israel. The Israelis have a handle on Hamass and their reaction has made it clear to the bosses of Hezbollah that if they seriously eeF arround they will find out personally what missile on the head feels like. Plus all the Arab nations nearby that have power and money have made it very clear that they want Hamass smacked down too. So Israel is stable ish.

    But the Houthis and their Iranian sponsors/buddies. That’s a problem. They have already showed the Xiden administrations total lack of feck. They have also highlighted that most of Europe has navies about the size of two dinghys and a rowboat. But that most of Europe kinda depends on regular oil and LNG passing through the Suez canal. That’s going to cause massive instability somewhere.

    Liked by 2 people

          1. This is permitting for new LNG shipping facilities. There are 4 additional LNG terminals in the works (the story only notes the location of one in Louisiana), and the administration has ‘frozen’ the permitting process while they ‘rewrite’ the permitting rule. Existing facilities and contracts are not impacted by this, but the new projects are all put in limbo.

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  4. If you are sitting in the black swan blind, the Reader suggests you have a shotgun on your lap.

    The Reader’s senses are tingling as well. The world just feels ‘wrong’.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Everything feels wrong,
      Sometimes i wonder though, is it all just the same but sensationalized by the media, both sides mind you, but sensationalized to steer everyone into madness?

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      1. Sometimes I wonder as well. The thing about the news is that all of it — ALL of it — is carefully (if often unconsciously) calculated to produce maximum anxiety. They need you to need to return endlessly for that anxiety-driven hit.

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      1. And don’t speak to soon, for the wheel’s still in spin
        And there’s no telling who that it’s naming
        For the loser now will be later to win
        For the times they are a-changing.

        —Bob Dylan

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Browning BT-99 single-shot 12 gage shotgun with a good 2-3/4″ goose load should do for Swan.

        (Great gun. I use one for Trap shoots.)

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  5. The time to water the Tree is here and past. I agree – there is going to be a triggering event (one or more) that an attempt will be made to cover up. But that attempt will fail. I’m thinking at this time it may be US troops moved to the border to enforce B’s forced immigration policies. I would hate for Americans to fire on Americans – either side – but I fear it will happen. As always in a war of aggression, the wrong people will be shot. There is much to be said about retail vs wholesale war. Retail costs so much less in the long run.

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    1. Keep in mind that employing regular troops against Texas would be a felony violation of the Posse Comitatus Act signed into federal law June 18, 1878. At that point, it becomes legal to arrest and imprison the Cucumber in Chief, and any henchpersons, pending impeach and trial. This of course, would be resisted with lethal force by the SS, so you’ve automatically got a shooting war on your hands as part of that Constitutional crisis. But then the Left has been doing their best to manufacture that exact crisis for years.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. And any regular troops given that order should probably disobey it as it is an illegal order. Not sure if the brigadiers and full colonels would disobey (promotion to upper level seems to have gotten very political) but I suspect the old gruff NCO’s would very politely refuse to comply. Similarly if the Turnip in Chief tries to federalize the TNG things could get interesting. The powers that be through their stupidity and tendency to drink their own ink have well and truly got their privates wedged between a rock and a hard place. If things couldn’t go all pear shaped in an instant this would be downright amusing.

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      2. Unless he declares TX in a state of insurrection, as both Eisenhower and JFK did.

        Note that doesn’t require any action by Congress; it’s a function of the President’s role as Commander In Chief.

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        1. Two essentially untested constitutional precedents, being used against each other. The SCOTUS would convene so fast they’d get whiplash.

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          3. In that event I reckon FBI would sit Roberts down — again — to review the contents of his file, and the needle would be miraculously threaded.

            Again. “It’s a tax!” or something.

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      3. Magic word “insurrection”. POTUS had both the power and duty to suppress insurrection. Settled law since the Whiskey Rebellion. There are legal definitions.

        If Texas uses force, by armed men, to prevent Federal law enforcement from doing their jobs, POTUS could make a declaration of insurrection. Yes, lots of folks could argue about it. But once that Rubicon is crossed, we get into established precidents that date to the War the Causes of Which Are Not Discussed Here.

        We never really resolved some “because I said so” stuff. And then recently example by Eisenhower enforcing Brown with troops is indicative.

        Texas -must not- get maneuvered into such a position. Having a bunch of idiots dressed as Longhorns, blocking SUVs, would be much smarter. As would Deputy Sherrifs serving endless writs, and towing illegally parked vehicles. Barney Fife the opposition. Pranks. Bad press. And lots and lots of lawyers.

        Liked by 2 people

        1. “If Texas uses force, by armed men, to prevent Federal law enforcement from doing their jobs,”

          I’m curious. Just how do you think FICUS and Merrick’s Merry Men will classify this recommendation of yours?

          “Deputy Sheriffs serving endless writs, and towing illegally parked vehicles.”

          Last I looked, Deputy Sheriffs carry guns. Face it, anytime they want an excuse, they’ll have one.

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          1. Traffic enforcement, especially by a sherrif? That’s well settled routine legal stuff.

            Especially if well away from the “contested” area.

            C’mon man. Try harder.

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            2. More seriously: well away? who gets to define that? Hint: the same potted plant we all know and love.

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      4. Who needs regular troops. All the three letter Federal departments have their own SWAT/shadow troops armed and operational. This sidesteps using troops they cannot rely on. Why do you think the EPA and the DOE “need” armed SWAT teams and all the military equipment they’ve acquired?

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      5. How many units of troops have ZERO personnel who are not from Texas and have no friends or family in Texas?

        Seems to me the kinetics would go in multiple directions.

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        1. Eisenhower had no apparent trouble sending US troops to enforce Brown.

          The modern army will obey orders. It will be explained to them how the orders are in fact lawful, and any serious barracks lawyers will get yanked and stockaded.

          Note also the possibility Biden would instead send Marines. Or SOCOM.

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        1. No, it wasn’t.

          ATF (Federal civilian) led the initial raid.
          FBI (Federal civilian) took over when ATF had their ass handed to them.

          The armored vehicles were equipment (only) transferred to the FBI under DD1033 or it’s equivalent, a program Congress set up specifically to do that as part of the War on Drugs.

          Morally and ethically, it was a cluster of the nth degree. But the letter of Posse Comitatus wasn’t violated.

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  7. The world hinges on black swan events; nobody can predict the future. I will point out, with great affection, the black swans events are not all bad! Black swans can be wonderful opportunities especially for those who are prepared. I believe we are in a spiritual revival. I believe that someday historians might someday draw a line through the last few years and say “here is the beginning” of that revival. Yes, there is always danger. Every day there is a bus load of people going over a cliff somewhere in the world. So be careful, be ready and stop worrying about the future!

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    1. In the deep idiot ateas, they are running out of both money and facilities to house the flood of “economic refugees.” A number of these areas have suggested that private citizens are going to need to “voluntarily” step up and offer their homes.

      Whether it’s gone farther than mere suggestion, I have no idea.

      Liked by 2 people

          1. ‘We The Living’ is not quite autobiographical, but is based on her experiences living in Russia between 1917 and when she escaped to the U.S. in 1926. Should be required reading for all wanna-be communists. THIS IS WHAT YOU MF-RS ARE PUSHING FOR!!!

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      2. Note that this started out as a troll online– folks in areas that actually get illegals saying “Fine, you guys want them around so much? YOU take them into YOUR houses!”

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        1. Oh, they couldn’t do that; that’s what serfs are for! Why, that would be like forcing Kerry, Gore et al to sacrifice their private jets in the name of stopping climate change, or requiring leftist gun-grabber pols to do without armed security! Simply not done! :twisted:

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        2. In a future history…

          “The Boog” starts with an uprising by outraged “No Quarters!” Leftroids in a Blue State. The usual Blac Bloc voidsphincters get a little too cute and cripple some cops, horrificly, and the PoPo get a little too enthusiastic about “Eff the rules. Apply hickory shampoo thoroughly” repaying with interest. Then some angry idiot decides to help the Revolution along via Comrade Kalashnikov. Things escalate wildly. The Authorities, mostly the same DAs and Judges that caused the prequel mess, for some reason now of all times, decide -now- is the time for Confiscation, and things escalate two orders of magnitude.

          The barracks lawyers in the Guard produce some actual mutinies. Federal troops get pulled in when “insurrectionsts” start popping vehicles with “liberated” anti-tank weapons. At some point, the conflagration spreads insanely rapidly as various folks decide to get their licks in before they get targeted. The scheduled Federal elections become a bad case of Epic Failure Theater. Anger dials up to “eleven”.

          Somewhere in that firestorm “No Quarters” became “No Quarter”. CW1 killed or maimed short of seven figures. The Boog / CW2 went to eight figures. Lingering radioactives, toxins, and biologicals continue, slowly but steadily, to raise the count even today. When the fourteen decade absense of the recently restored Pax Americana is factored in, it’s nine or ten
          figures, depending on who counts whom and why.

          Reclamation and Repopulation of dead zones continue.

          No-one was prepared for just how fast the fire went from match to Apocalypse. Arguments rage a century and a half later as to why it happened and who is to blame. But civilly. Most civilly.

          from a lecture by the Professor Emeritus Liber, US Army War College, New Washington, Capitol District, North America, 2181AD.

          Liked by 1 person

    2. Massachusetts has been asking people to volunteer to house “undocumented immigrants” in their own houses. I believe the call came from the governor, who to my utter lack of surprise, has not offered space in the governor’s abode.

      Strikes me as leading to a violation of the third amendment…

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Yes Governor Healy requested folks to offer space in their homes. The response has been almost as vigorous as that that is seen every year to pay the income tax surtax (the Dukakis Surtax I believe) which you can check on your Mass form 1.

        For those of you not stuck in this odd state that box is checked on fewer than 1000 (and likely closer to 100) of the several million tax forms filed in Massachusetts each year. The best ever was when then senator Kerry (known as Senator Lurch in these parts) was running as Democrat presidential candidate. He was shouting that people should be willing to pay more taxes. It was noted that none of his Form 1 for the years he had published had that box checked. It was also noted that his 100′ plus sailing yacht was purchased and registered in Rhode Island even though it was home ported in Newburyport MA. He thus avoided the excise and luxury taxes that would have accrued on it (to the tune of several hundred thousand dollars).

        I wonder if the Democrats remember that housing soldiers in people’s homes in the colony of Massachusetts was part of how things started.

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          1. The Gangster Party will argue that the Third Amendment only applies to military personnel. Illegal aliens aren’t mentioned.

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            2. Well, there is already a formal declaration of Invasion.

              The Third Amendment is silent on any arms borne by those soldiers. It is standard practice that our service peeps are oficially unarmed in barracks/quarters. (If anyone in my Infantry unit was caught taking a weapon into their room, it was a slam-dunk Field Grade Article 15.

              Forced quartering is a humiliation tactic. American culture is remarkably tolerant, but that line would be unwise to cross.

              Again.

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            3. Any invading military are illegal aliens.

              “Anything to declare?”

              (In heavy accent) “RPG and six AT rounds. AKM and basic load, four frag, two smoke, two belts for the sheengunner on line two.”

              “Uh…”

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      2. So long as people actually volunteer, it’s not a third amendment issue. Just like you can always give up your rights to be secure in your person and papers and let the police search without a warrant.

        It’s when people want to keep their rights that things get sticky …

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        1. It is amusing how liberals always want someone else to pay for their mistakes.
          “We are a sanctuary city” blue cities virtue signal.
          More Illegals show up than they thought would.
          “No Mas, No Mas!” the blue cities cry, when a few thousand show up for their free benefits.
          Now a Few hundred thousand, per blue city, because the red cities make you work. Consequences. Maybe Karma, instead of turning the southern states blue, you are bankrupting the Blue cities, Good Job Pedophile and Thief Biden. Even your corrupt Fibbies can’t save you know.

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          1. “Never underestimate Joe’s ability to eff things up.” – Mierdes I

            The tricky sonofabeech that decided to bus the illegals to the sanctuaries may have saved the effing Republic. Bravo!

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            1. Not until he starts bussing more of them to DC.

              a few hundred thousand ought to catch the Beltway set’s attention.

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  9. When I had small children, I worried so much about their safety that I talked to my eldest sister and asked her if this was normal. Was I a helicopter mom? I let them play in the dirt and shoot nerf guns and all that, but I kept an eye on them always.

    “Moms that are vigilant about their kids,” she replied, “have kids that live to adulthood.”

    I’ll be in the Black Swan blind right along with y’all, watching. It is a time to be vigilant.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. I was just thinking yesterday that the fecal matter coming out about Boeing could be a Black Swan event. A company known for its craftsmanship and engineering is now forgetting to even install bolts on their aircraft? And it got through a QC check? Combined with the missing screws on Airbus and it’s looking like the big aircraft manufacturers have changed their business model to Soviet levels of ambivalence. With how much business is conducted by air travel, that bodes ill for the coming years.

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      1. I read those as swear words at first, and the comment still made perfect sense. “How the (diversity) did that sort of (diversity) happen at a major (diversity) company!?!!???”

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      2. I fear my fine Ox that you have mistaken the effect for the cause. The cause is that Boeing merged in McDonnell Douglas. Rather than keep their own engineering oriented (albeit flawed management) they grabbed the MCD-D managers who were getting decent ROI (though that was because almost all they did was cost plus government work). The effect was that among other stupid actions those Harvard MBA type managers decided that appeasing the assorted customers (in particular the one writing the big juicy contracts) by making DIE a big thing was a value add instead of doing things like say testing hardware or following good engineering practices. the Boeing failures are in no means a Black Swan they are what happens when you take nearly 100 years of functional corporate culture and flush it down the toilet for quick monetary returns. The results are inevitable and inexorable.

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          1. Not the marketing department – marketing pretends to care about customers. Boeing was taken over by beancounters with spreadsheets. And then the beancounters moved to Chicago, where they would have to go hundreds of miles to see anything ‘real’ happening in the company (Seattle, St Louis, Charleston) OR with their customers.

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            1. The Bad pushes out the Good.

              Merging a successful company with a train wreck often leads to the wreckers colonizing the success, instead of the other way around. Essential in such merger to essentially gut the wreck, and fast. Else the virulent duckheads quickly infect the place, metastasize, and doom the union. “Acquisition” versus “Merger”.

              It’s uncanny how often such disasters occur.

              I have been through both versions. Current employer gives folks a chance to be absorbed into the body, but stubbornly alien folks get purged, and quick. Our very successful culture is thus maintained. (Landru 2.0 was an overly tolerant nincomputer….)

              Weirdly, you can be very Odd, here. But lack respect, lack “success seeking”, and you are -gone-. I can be out sick for two weeks in the middle of a project and be safe. Be “Mister Mediocrates” and pne had best polish that soon-to-be needed resume.

              And folks here kick ass to keep it that way.

              Liked by 1 person

        2. I had one project with McDonnell-Douglas back in the day. At the same time, we contracted with Honeywell for a similar item. I did back-to-back start of work meetings with both in the same trip.
          Results? Honeywell went out of its corporate way to do the work and produced a good final product. (I forget whether we had to finish up the manual at that point, but it was in good shape). McDonnell- Douglas eventually coughed up a test board, which our engineers had to turn into an actual test-the -equipment fixture. And we had to do manuals from scratch.
          Yes, I remember Honeywell rather fondly. McD, not so much.

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          1. I don’t know about then, but today the MD-type company would win the government contract. (With an ‘appropriate’ contribution to the powers.)

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    2. And just think, the Navy wants to recruit high school dropouts to run their ships and subs. Mind you, that might work if the young adults dropped out because they failed the DEI test or weren’t good little socialists.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Oh, no!

        Our Navy might be thrown back in time to THE YEAR TWO THOUSAND!!!!

        Oh. Wait. The last batch of folks who got their GED in bootcamp that I know for absolute sure– since I helped them train for it– are just now retiring.

        And the world didn’t end yet.

        Liked by 2 people

        1. But that was when a GED meant something, and when you had the authority to fix what it didn’t.

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          1. Yeah, it meant you were a loser.

            Which I heard from the guys getting it, more than once, and that’s why they hadn’t gotten it before they needed it to join the Navy.

            And I didn’t have any authority. I was just teaching them basic education stuff.

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            1. A GED meant you were a loser…and having neither the education nor any certified equivalent to it somehow didn’t? SMH…

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              1. How many generations have folks been thinking that “rebel without a cause” means something besides “destructive idiot”?

                The appeal of “I make my own way, don’t go by anybody’s rules” makes it less “loser.”

                :pushes glasses up nose: Enough to make me really glad I was never ‘cool’.

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            2. Pop dropped out at 17 to be a captain of a charter boat in the Caribbean. Got his GED when joined sub service during Korean war. Used GI bill to get through engineering school with wife and three kids in tow. Then 17 years with that Honeywell company followed by Litten and Northrop with stints at MIT. Retired after stint as senior engineer on MX and was considered one of the top five guidance system folks in the world. One of his few regrets with all of that was not finishing high school!

              But you know boys will be boys. i think in the current educational environment for young men to stay through high school is a little dying daily.

              Also Sarah you have again precisely nailed that which I have been feeling for weeks.Up late nearly every night going over lists and preps and do i have what the family needs etc.

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                1. I did my time in public school just before Jimmeh Cahtah’s Department Of Education flushed it all down the crapper. 45 years, 2.2 TRILLION dollars wasted on totally wrecking the government school system. It’s the one bureaucracy that most needs a stake driven through it.
                  ———————————
                  The government can mandate stupidity, but they can’t make it not be stupid.

                  Liked by 1 person

          2. … I’m not sure what alternate reality you’ve been living in, but “getting a GED” never, ever had the social cachet of “getting a high school diploma”.

            Despite the best efforts of the advertisements in the back of the Archie Comics books.

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            1. And now? In many school districts, mainly in blue cities, which requires more knowledge and dedication, a diploma or a GED?

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              1. Doesn’t matter which actually takes more or shows better preparation if the reputation is worse.

                And last I knew, GED’s reputation is still worse than “has a HS diploma”.

                Probably for the same reason that “worked in the field for years” is still considered less than “Has a degree in the field.”

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                1. :points up:

                  Yep.

                  It’s one of those “everybody knows” things.

                  Same way that “has a Doctorate” in a completely unrelated field somehow makes you more authoritative than the folks actually doing what you’re talking about.

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                    1. I think we’re all kind of grumpy about how, objectively, schools are putting out kids who can’t read enough to function in normal life– but somehow a dropout who then passes a GED test is extras-special bad.

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                2. I suspect that reputation is being fostered by the public education system as a means of keeping their tight little fists on the youth of this nation. Otherwise, a GED could be awarded to people who were successfully homeschooled, proving that the public schools aren’t the only solution. Furthermore, if the number of successfully tested homeschoolers increased, while the public schooled graduates scores using the same test decreased, it would prove that the public schools were inferior.

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                  1. OK, that brings up a question I never thought of: What, exactly, does a homeschooled graduate get to show graduation? I assumed that, since homeschooling requires state approval for those under (16? 14? Whatever…) to not be classed as “truants” and arrested, usually along with their parent(s), that a state-issued diploma or equivalent was issued. Not so?

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                    2. Basically completely inaccurate, nationally speaking.

                      What they get depends on state, as do what kind of state knowledge is involved.

                      #5 under “High School,” HSLDA’s website says:
                      HOW DO HOMESCHOOLERS GET HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMAS
                      Homeschool students receive their diplomas from their parents. Since parents are the ones who structure and organize a homeschool student’s education, they are also the ones qualified to judge when that education has been successfully completed and a diploma earned.

                      A few states have high school graduation requirements for homeschoolers, so you can check your state’s homeschool laws on our interactive legal map. If you’re an HSLDA member, please contact your state’s legal team if you have any further questions.

                      Are you wondering more about where to get diplomas, what you should put on a diploma, and whether you should have your child take a GED test? Check out our Diploma FAQs.
                      https://hslda.org/about/faqs/homeschooling

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                    4. I assumed it varied by state; my question actually was a response to Mike’s comment about the possible reason for the negative perception of the GED.

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                  2. Should be required for those “graduating” from HS pass a GED test, and a citizenship test (probably already included). Of coarse “they will teach to the test” will be screamed. And this will be bad how? Yes, I realize some have to be taught how to take tests and get over test anxiety (me for one).

                    Cousin took her GED to graduate a year early. So she graduated the same year I did. She was a whole 6 weeks younger. Difference? I was born before Nov 1, she was born after.

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                    1. The problem is that in “teaching to the test” I had some teachers who, doing their job, informed us “X is the correct answer, Y is what will get you a passing grade.”

                      And we’re all familiar with the “second amendment is a group right” type nonsense on citizenship tests.

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                    2. What about a dry report on the “incorrect scored correctly answers”?

                      Seriously. I get it.

                      Out of curiosity, I checked how Oregon checks the advancement. Parents have options other than standardized testing. Interesting.

                      We are past needing to know. That is unless we ever have grandchildren.

                      Liked by 1 person

                    3. Past knowing for yourself, sure– but how about other folks?

                      Knowing where to look, and being able to talk supportively to folks, is a huge help.

                      Part of what I like about Iowa is that retired school teachers will stand there and ‘talk shop’ with me about teaching when they figure out I’m a homeschooler.

                      Like

                    4. Teaching to the test is exactly the way it should be done with physical skills. That’s exactly what you (used to do) with the skills for the first 3 ranks of Boy Scouts, at least if you were an honest teacher.

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                    5. Of coarse. The difference with scouts is who is the teacher, and that the scouts do the work to earn the proficiency, with adult oversight. Homeschooling can work the same with older students teaching younger ones. Learn, Do, Teach, means the skills are not easily forgotten.

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        2. My FiL joined the AF when he was 17, no HS degree. When he got sent to Minot he stepped off the bus and walked over to put his transfer papers in for Vietnam. Next day he was downtown and met his future wife. Got his GED as soon as he got back to the states, and asked to be sent to Minot. When he retired from the AF he settled in Minot. Things change fast when your outlook on the world changes.

          Liked by 1 person

    3. The Reader notes that the company we know as Boeing (Woeing?) today has nothing in common with that icon of 20th century aviation. When Boeing bought McDonnell Douglas what actually happened was that McDonnell Douglas bought Boeing with Boeing’s money. And by the 1990’s McDonnell Douglas was a zombie company that everyone in both commercial aviation and defense hated. The company that gave us the F4 and F15 had turned into a bunch of leeches and Boeing was fresh blood. Maybe at some point the Reader will share a tale or two about how bad Boeing has been for the last 20 years. He has some personal experience.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. My dad worked for Douglas Aircraft for a few years in the mid-sixties (aerospace medicine). He left for multiple reasons but the McDonnell merger had something to do with it. He was always meticulous about stating that he had worked for Douglas Aircraft, NOT McDonnell Douglas. And the Boeing merger, I’m sure, made things worse.

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    4. Baliancolirio on YouTube has a breakdown of what happened.

      Basically Boeing and Spirit have incompatible tracking systems, and the door plug seal rework was done in a way that did not trigger a QA check. (Door was ‘opened’ instead of removed.)

      Liked by 1 person

      1. It would seem obvious that tracking systems should match between prime and all subs, especially for safety-related issues like aircraft systems, but I guess the NIH syndrome is everywhere. :-(

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        1. I think normally it wouldn’t be an issue except Spirit has had so many escapes of their own that they have an enclave camped out at Boeing working them. And this door was being opened to rework a seal failure that had escaped Spirit.

          So yeah, bad all around.

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    5. Some of these incidents, like row of missing screws on a wing, could be sabotage by diversity hire airport employees.

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    6. And the whole AOG Technics thing suggests that supplier vetting has come down to, “Yeah, I know their senior sales rep is named ‘Johnny Rico’ (ahem) but they’ve got the best price.”

      When you start placing bet-the-company propositions on squeezing more cost out of replacement parts…or aren’t smart enough to realize you just bet your company on squeezing more cost out of replacement parts…it’s a sign your game might be just about played.

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        2. Garibaldi: “CenTOOrie”?

          Londo: “CenTAAAAAHrrrri!”

          Unison, singing: “let’s call the whole thing off…”

          (Best improv blooper ever)

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  12. Stop it. You’re just killing yourself. It won’t benefit the world, or your family, or America, or anything if you wreck your health and sanity by staying on battle zone high alert all the time.

    Look at the Left: they went into freakout mode in 2016 when Literally Hitler won an election they thought was in the bag, and they stayed that way, well, basically ever since. Has it helped any of them? Are they happier, healthier, or more productive? No, they’re driving alone wearing face masks and checking Twitter every 15 seconds to make sure they haven’t inadvertently missed the Current Thing.

    Stop it. I know it’s hard. I’m struggling with this myself. Go for a walk, or meditate, or take up drinking, or something. I’m not urging passivity, I’m not urging defeat — but if you think trouble is on the way then you owe it to yourself, your family, and your country to keep yourself sane and healthy to meet it.

    Liked by 2 people

          1. Mine is reading. Have to be careful to regulate it. *sob. Might have been alcohol but I figured out at 16 I could have issues, so decided not to, and the best way to stop something is to not start.

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            1. fiber crafts…. ask me about yarn. When the catalogs come in the mail the kids yell, “Auntie, your yarn porn is here!”

              Also, I have a rule that I’m not allowed to start new books on week nights because I’ve been known to stay up to the wee hours to read ‘just one more chapter’ until I finish. Only with Kindle there’s no need to stop if the next book is already available….

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              2. One of the best bits of 2020 for me came when we were working a project in rural Wisconsin (Yes, we kept traveling in 2020) was discovering Hershieser’s headquarters was in Stephen’s Point, just 35 miles away, and the outlet store was open. Spent two lovely hours shopping. It was even worth wearing a mask, just to be out and about.
                (I collect local yarn shops, which Hershieser’s is emphatically not, but it was still nice)

                Liked by 1 person

          2. My aunt* once noted that our family was prone to various addictive behaviors, though the item of choice seems to have varied amongst us. Some of the outlaws in-laws contributed their own share of issues, leaving some interesting results for the offspring.

            ((*)) A social worker, with the usual exposure in both professional and personal life.

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        2. Never addicted to alcohol or drugs, but my heart races something fierce and I get all anxious when there’s an air show in town and I can’t be where I can see the airplanes flying. Bookstores are another thing I have a hard time passing. I feel like I’m missing something

          Liked by 1 person

          1. I got a bit bored with most airshows… though that might be that one Summer an aerobatic team used the local airport as their base and I had a free aerobatic show most Summer days of decent weather.

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    2. No, Jim, not drinking. It may look better than the current alternative — sometimes it might even be better in the short term — but there’s a price too high and too likely to be incurred to make it smart. Walking is way better, from personal experience. Unless your neighborhood is hilly and lacks sidewalks. Then it’s just moderately better. Relaxing, and good for the body.

      Besides, Sarah, with the interconnected ubiquity of media these days, you don’t really need to keep looking out for black swan news. The news will come to you soon enough.

      I will even do you the favor of not trying to guess the black swan, even though I’ve got candidates. Better to keep you sane than try to show off.

      Republica restituendae/i>

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  13. I keep hoping that black swan is the Koreans turning DC and the surrounding area into a giant smoking pit and totally surprised everyone, especially that bright flash that was the last thing they ALL saw.

    Until then have had to lay of being so wrapped up in it all, is kinda like a
    dis ease, just eats at you. I read the news and start grinding my teeth and can feel my blood pressure raising, but yea, theres nothing most of us can do about any of this BS.

    I am going to give this voting thing one last chance, not that that really matters, but honestly, im getting tired of funding these jagazzez by having 1/3 of my pay sent directly to them monthly, thinking its time to milk the system and use it to my advantage, ill give em 30% of the 500 bucks profit i make next year, just not 30% of every hour i work every day day in and day out, am getting pretty sick of that BS

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    1. It won’t be the North Koreans; more likely the Iranians (or their proxies) striking a blow against The Great Satan, or the Chinese when the CCP realizes that their economy is about to collapse and their rule along with it so they decide to take down us with them. Personally, my money’s on the latter.

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  14. I have thought for some time that the perfect turn of plot in a work of fiction or drama is one that is logical and inevitable in retrospect, but unexpected and surprising in prospect. Some of the events you offer as examples of “black swans” seem like that.

    Like

            1. “Fairest and Fallen, greetings and defiance”

              A: Politeness costs nothing but breath, and could save your life, and B: ha’satan is what he is called in the Word, that’s where get his name, and it translates to the accuser, so I think I’m perfectly justified in capitalizing it.

              :P

              Liked by 1 person

  15. Here is my Black Swan event: Our Federal government spends less this year than last year. Note this is excluding the interest on our debt. To see this bird we will have to witness several State & Local governments default (i.e. they cannot sell anymore bonds). But I think my big BLACK SWAN is approaching. However, I think it would be a very good thing though a great many will be screaming this is the end of human civilization, etc.

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      1. Under “impossible” how about: 1) US’s China’s debt is wiped off the books (as US owes nothing, no matter how much China screeches). 2) US actually confiscates, legally, everything the usual suspects in the middle east has that the US can reach. 3) Senate and House pass law that is veto proof that the budget must be balanced, except under war time act passed by 2/3 of the house and senate. With tax cuts. No one ever accused me of not being a dreamer.

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        1. ” US’s China’s debt is wiped off the books (as US owes nothing, no matter how much China screeches).”

          Not sure that’s a black swan; “what can’t be paid back, won’t be” is something that’s been said for a while.

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        2. I will certainly agree this is a valid use for the word ‘impossible.’ Because it has been more than 100 years since the Federal government ran a surplus. Plus we have an entire society raised for several generations based on the idea of a Big Federal government that can only get bigger. And the current plan is simply debase our money (Hyper Inflation) to pay off the Federal debts; plus various schemes to just seize all the wealth which will never be done. But the powerful forces to make this happen are compound interest and the fact that many voters live on Social Security and Medicare or expect to. So as crazy as it sounds, I expect to see Congress simply shutting down entire programs. The really odd thing is most voters won’t notice if we….say….stopped all foreign aid. With a few exceptions, like enforcing our border, the vast majority of voters get no benefit, direct or indirect, from almost all government spending. Most of 20th Century politics was about buying that last 5% of the voters to stay in office. The other 95% don’t care or do not vote.

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  16. Heres the thing im wondering about,
    Will we actually have an election this year? Especially since he who must not be named is mopping the floor with the rest of the field. And then if they actually allow an election how will everyone react this time when king poopy pants has another vote dump at midnight that is double the number of actual adults in the US.
    Personally, feel we wont get there, i think something is brewing that will cause a storm and they will cancel all of it under an “emergency” proclamation. Hope im wrong, but think about it, they know they can only screw with the numbers so much, and this last time its only the heavily indoctrinated and brain dead who bought it. So they need something that cows everyone. Well, everyone willing to be herded that is, i suspect theres a lot who will give them a big one finger salute.

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    1. The only thing I worry about isn’t Trump, but the people who ascribe to a cult of personality for him, and want to hand him unfettered power.

      What far too many of the Left don’t see is that Trump had friggin’ chains on him during his entire 1st term. And he still did an amazing number of good things in spite of it. But those same people chaining him up also prevented those good things from being lasting improvements, because they utterly failed to allow them into actual law. Even if he is elected for a second term, there’s almost no way imaginable for him to become the tyrant the Left claims he would be.

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      1. Yes. Trump wouldn’t take up the power offered (such as it seems to be), but someone else might. Cults of Personality tend to end badly for a lot of people (Italy, USSR, China, Haiti, et al.)

        Liked by 2 people

      2. The only real thing about PDJT,

        He wasnt one of them, thats enough for me. If they hate him so much hes my hero because i hate them more

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    2. I worried about Obama ‘pulling a Palpatine’ as my oldest brother put it. Trying it with the least popular president in 50+ years? I don’t think that’ll fly.

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  17. Ahem….

    Don’t get Black Quilled

    ….

    Our Hostess is exemplifying something really important to understand. The proper state of defensive readiness is “Condition Yellow”

    White – oblivious, asleep, not paying attention

    Yellow – relaxed state of awareness. You are paying attention, but not anticipating or focusing. It’s almost no effort with practice.

    Orange – heightened awareness to specific potential threat. Something(s) are not quite right. Alert increases. Might have to do specific response or prevention.

    Red – threat identified. Active measures pending or committed. Fight’s on / Tallyho.

    You can live in orange or red. I’ve done it, for way too long. Red will corrode a carbide soul. Orange takes longer but does same.

    If you want Orange and Red to be effective and appropriate, you -must not- live there.

    If you are not dealing with the -immediate-situation, and you are not -relaxed-, you are above Yellow. Stop. Don’t squander that essential ability. Relax. Relaxed awareness.

    Yellow lets you see all, sense all, judge nothing. Be. Aware. Relaxed.

    I cannot emphasize enough how damaging and dysfunctional it is to live in Orange or Red.

    I drive in Yellow. I can drive all day. It’s fun to drive. I know there are myriad threats, sudden and subtle. Easy peasy. Relaxed. Yet I go orange-red almost instantly, avoid, and right back to mellow Yellow. My insurance rate is enviable.

    You will destroy yourself living above Yellow in the absence of -specific- threat. Also, you prevent proper response to real specific threat by burning all the pips on non-specific alert. Which gets you hurt or killed stupidly.

    Mellow Yellow. Don’t be Black Quilled.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. 11B-Mailclerk has got it – Yellow is the way to be.

      Working with rookie staff going to work in a prison you had to get them to understand the same idea. You can NOT be hyper aware all the time as it will gut you. You have to be aware but this side of paranoid frantic. The best figured it out and turned into the staff who were just ‘doing their thing’ but if you stopped and asked them about the cell block they knew who was upset about a letter from home, who almost got into a fight, where all the various inmates were and where and what the other staff were doing. That’s yellow.

      Now, “think yellow” and go read your neighborhood, office, store or whatever… I’ll wait.

      See?? You are now in the Black Swan blind too but with a nice chair, some snacks and are mellow about it. You can’t expect or plan for everything. The water main may break, the dog is gonna throw up just as your company comes in the door or the school bus may get a flat tire and screws up the whole daily schedule. Then you get to Improvise, adapt, and overcome the unexpected!

      Liked by 1 person

      1. How to stop, how to relax, is another topic. “Just stop” works for my undamaged or minimally broken acquaintances.

        Those of us who have delt with sleeping in Orange or Red, for dang good reason, sometimes need some assistance resetting the Yellow state.

        Yeah. I had to live for about a year knowing that to stay alive, I would have to awake instantly and successfully shoot probably two or more armed intruders. I was very lucky. The one hard intrusion attempt happend merely while I was buck naked on a toilet. It ended well, fortunately without gunfire, as they were savvy enough to back the bleep off the moment they realized they blew the ambush.

        It took a very long time to re-learn how to awaken gently. Very.

        So yes, I understand not everyone can just “stop”. Hopefully we agree that “how to stop” is a fruitful conversation of value. Always willing to learn.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Any good sources on that? Not near your level, but I had to live most of a year knowing I’d have to instantly wake up and take care of a potentially dangerous and definitely impaired relative, and I don’t think I’ve managed to get out of Orange for more than a bit at a time since.

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                1. On the upside, I at least know that when Protagonists have horrible backstories, it should show up and resonate through the story? ;)

                  And that sometimes the spirit is willing, but the mind and body are Nope, We’re Outta Here.

                  Liked by 1 person

                1. I also have reflexive hiss responses to people who trot out the line “God never gives you more than you can bear.”

                  I may not agree with all of Catholic theology, but the fact that their doctrine recognizes humans can be broken by the unbearable puts them two legs up on most casual “Christians” I’ve run into.

                  Liked by 1 person

                    2. May well be. I’ve always heard it trotted out as a justification for, “this is your problem, you handle it, we don’t want to be bothered.”

                      Can back up this being a “thing,” along with “Oh gosh I guess God doesn’t want you to [thing that requires speaker to do something they don’t want to, which is usually their duty to do].”

                      See also, “you can handle this, you’re doing great!”

                      Liked by 2 people

    3. This. (11B’s color analysis, in case of misalignment of replies) What are you doing in that swan blind, Sarah? I love you like a sister, but what do you think you are going to do — stop the swan? Do you have that power? Better to be watchful at home, keeping the field of fire trimmed back and the pantry stocked … that activity is beneficial in multiple scenarios, to my way of thinking anyhow. Please think about it, sis, and take care of yourself too.

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    1. I can just see the future historians writing about this era. “You know, it’s funny. Up until the 2020’s, we don’t find any American sources writing ANYTHING significant about the 3rd Amendment. And yet, THAT was what kicked off The Boogaloo? Boy, that must have caught them all by surprise! Oh, BTW, do you have any idea why all the contemporary sources were calling Civil War II by the name of “The Boogaloo”? Because I’m stumped.”

      Seriously, it was just a few years ago that Glenn Reynolds (IIRC) was posting something about the 3rd Amendment being the forgotten amendment, squeezed between the all-important 2nd and the nearly-as-important (and much-abused) 4th. And yet, here I am thinking about how easily the trigger event for CW2 (Electric Boogaloo) could be violations, in spirit if not technically in letter, of the 3rd Amendment.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. The 3rd Amendment specifically states: “No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.”

        That goes back to the Quartering Acts of British Parliament where local (colonial) governments were tasked with providing food and quarters to British soldiers. If barracks were not available, then they would be required to put the soldier up in public houses, inns, bars, stables, uninhabited houses, outhouses, barns or other buildings. (Sounds a lot like how illegals are being housed, doesn’t it?) Colonial authorities were required to pay for the housing and feeding. (Gee, who get’s TAXED for that?)

        Granted, the 5th Amendment says that property owners must receive just compensation for their commandeered property; but we’ve seen just how just that is with the Kelo v. City of New London case. (All 5 justices who voted that it was okay to take the property should have been beaten with rubber truncheons all the way from D.C. back to their home states.)

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          1. Ah, but I get better whipping action with pure rubber. M*V applies in both cases, but I think I can get stronger hits with more velocity than I could by adding mass. Plus with more mass and slow velocity, they might be able to dodge even at their advanced age.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. Dog leash with the snap fastened back to the hand loop ring makes a dang handy flail.

              Helps a bit, explaining it to Deputy Fife, if you actually own and have with you a dog.

              They do work. Helps to try it out on an old heavy bag or pell, first. Like ‘chucks, bounce-back can/must be managed.

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              1. I don’t think I’d try it with the 1″ webbing leash. OTOH, the metal chain, medium weight for a strong 40 pound dog, yes, that would work.

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        2. And since trespassers and/or the homeless aren’t soldiers, a law (or executive order) requiring property owners to put them up technically wouldn’t be a violation of the letter of the 3rd Amendment. But it sure would be a violation of its spirit. And I’d argue that case all the way to the Supreme Court, if I were a lawyer. Probably using the phrase “penumbras and emanations” with malice aforethought.

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      2. It was mostly forgotten because no-one in office even had bright bulb ideas on how to violate it.

        Now that they think they run everything, it doesn’t even occur to them to be circumspect about it.

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  19. Having spent most of my life working in the markets, I’ve found that most of the swans are various shades of grey and stem more from blindness and ignorance than being truly “black”

    For example, the survival of Evergrande in China completely defies everything I thought I knew. What I didn’t account for was default with Chinese characteristics. Now, even though they’ve been ordered into liquidation, the black swan for me would be their ending up in liquidation. Much more likely is that the foreign bond holders get nothing, and the rest is swept up into the maw that is Chinese defaulted debt.

    I could go over many, many examples that I got wrong, but the key is to not optimize, but rather be resilient and to the degree possible be “anti fragile.” I’m not really a fan of Taleb, though I’ve read all his books, but his basic notion here is correct. Of course he misses what would be the black swan for him of the markets ceasing to function so his anti fragile investments don’t work, but one can’t have everything.

    The best thing, though, about having some anti fragile investments as part of a portfolio is one sleeps well at night. I’m not worried about market crashes and should the market cease to function, well, nothing else would have worked anyway; money won’t be worth anything and my pantry, little vegetable garden, and package at the bottom of the local pond will be priceless.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. “having some anti fragile investments as part of a portfolio is (how) one sleeps well at night”

      Speaking of investments, hubby has been recently getting interested in the whole topic of investing, which we know very little about, so I signed up for an online course (sponsored by our local community college) on “Investing from A to Z” which promises to explain how the stock market, bond markets, commodities, etc. work.

      Both of us grew up with Depression-raised parents who apparently never considered investing in stocks or commodities because they thought that was only for rich people or that it was extremely risky and you could just as easily go broke as strike it rich. However, it’s our understanding that once you buy stocks, you don’t instantly “lose money” when the price goes down — you only lose money if you sell when the price is down, and you can simply wait out a downturn for the price to go up. Another reason not to worry about “market crashes”.

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      1. You lose and gain money instantly when the price changes, that you don’t is a lie the brokers tell. There’s no guarantee that prices will ever come back. There have been decades long periods where that didn’t happen — Japan is still well below where they were in 1991. Many names go to zero and there’s no back at all.

        I don’t give investment advice since my circumstances are not yours, but the stock market is usually not a bad place to put up your money. Given inflation has been eating up all fixed income, it might be the only place. Still you have to be prepared for losses, potentially large losses. Then again, that’s always true even in supposedly “safe” havens. Your best bet might be to go to Vanguard and do what they tell you. You might still lose, but probably won’t if you look at it over the very long term.

        The only thing more I would say is that the market is very, very expensive relative to its historical levels right now. Historically, periods when the market is expensive relative to its past levels produce low returns, sometimes net negative. It might be different this time, but probably not.

        How old you are makes a difference too, My advice to my children is very different to what I do myself. the market is a very long term bet and you need to give it time to run. If you don’t have that time, then you need to do so something else.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. My beloved is actually pretty good at investing, but he pays attention. He’s still bummed by a (tax client, he did NOT give investment advice) who panicked and sold everything she had at the dip, just before the market started rising again.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Buy high and sell low. That’s why no one actually makes the market return. I mostly buy and hold myself and use options to hedge and, very occasionally, to speculate. It’s very risk and, especially, tax efficient. Not for everyone though, you have to know what you’re doing or you just pull down returns.

            Buy and hold has proved to be the best strategy, especially with dollar cost averaging — unless you’re Japan and maybe now China. Still, there’s a great deal of generational luck. I started out in 1982 when the markets were at a generational valuation low. My da had to work through the seventies when nothing really worked from the high in ca., 1966 through the low in ca., 82. The 29 high wasn’t taken out for 20+ years.

            Today, the market is at all time highs with dangerously high valuations. In many cases they’re just stupid; but the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

            BTW, the common thread between Japan and China as well as a certain amount of the 1929-32 bear is demographic. The 66-82 bear were demographic too but with growth rather than decline in the cohorts. Europe didn’t manage to lose an entire generation in 1914-18 that would have been at peak productivity in 29-32 for nothing.

            Looking at the US, the Obama birth bust is starting to play out ….. right now as it happens. There’s a swan of some color for you. There simply aren’t as many people entering (e.g.,) military age.

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            1. We started out in mid to late ’80s too. Took awhile to learn what worked and what didn’t for us. Using a stock broker was bad for us. We take too long to “talk it out”. Once we moved to Schwab and took over, we’ve been steady. Annual growth runs 10%+ year to year over what we withdraw (gross growth is larger).

              Hubby learned how to work the stock market from the trust financial advisors for the company he worked for (3 managers, 3 employees, and two financial advisors) for the pension trust and their 401(k). I don’t normally interfere with what he does. The one exception was when the company that bought out the company I was working for (FYI made out like bandits not only on my options, but what he’d bought in addition, which I did not know he’d done). After the sale went through he asked if we should buy some of that stock. My answer was a hard “No! Absolutely not!” I never told him they were offering employees huge discounts for buying stock. Those that did? Got hurt bad.

              Note, I know what he is doing and how he does it, if not the specifics (because I have no interest in knowing, beyond knowing where everything is and how it works.) Hubby is working with our son on his own accounts. When the time comes we are researching our best options to turn the reins over to someone else. Our son if he is interested (is his money, eventually), or professional options.

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              1. A rancher’s wife we know used to work for Jeld-Wen. The company “encouraged” employees to buy stock for the retirement fund. After Wendt died, it became clear what a house of cards he had created. Among other things, he bought land to develop that wouldn’t be viable for decades. Also, there was never a clear path to a new CEO in his absence. The housing market collapse and the multiple “summers of recovery” contributed a lot to the crunch.

                The company got sold to a Canadian outfit, and lost a lot of presence in our area. The former employees who had company stock got clobbered. The lady I know is getting by, mostly. The ranch got affected by the water lawfare that’s been an issue, making life more difficult, too.

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                1. Back in the late 80s, the company I was working for started a 401k, but didn’t really give us a choice of investments. After a year or so of subpar returns, someone dug through the paperwork and found that the President and CEO had invested 80% of it in company stock… which was illegal. He had to make up the losses and barely avoided jail.

                  Sounds like that’s what SHOULD have happened to this scumsucker.

                  Like

                  1. He gets what he deserves in the afterlife. He was the Big Man around Flyover County. When Costco wanted to open a store this side of the Cascades (the one in Medford draws from a 200 mile radius in Eastside Oregon and Very Northern California), he managed to kill the project.

                    His professed reasoning: “People will go to work for Costco and the competition would drive up my labor costs.”

                    OTOH, the big Walmart was not defeated.

                    They made decent windows, though when we needed a couple new ones as part of the house fixup, we got Milgard. Those are really nice.

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                  2. Sounds like that’s what SHOULD have happened to this scumsucker.
                    ……………..

                    In the ’90s it was still legal to require 401(k) funds to get matching to be in company stock. Latter amended to have matching funds be company stock. That changed by late ’90s. Company I worked for ’90 – ’96 would match 30% of total contribution in company stock, but had to invest 30% of contribution in company stock. So that is what I did getting 100% matching stock to stock, rest went into high growth fund (stock transferred to IRA when rolled over). Next company matched with company stock, but could not require company stock purchase by employee. That all funded out when bought out. By then the new company could neither require 401(k) contributions purchase company stock, nor could they fund matching with company stock.

                    A lot of people lost money by being required to fund their 401(k)’a with company stock. The incident I reported was not inside 401(k). Just a way for the company to prop up an overextended concern. And failing. The ones hurt were the employees of the last two companies bought. Both Eugene companies. I have no idea why I was so sure that not buying stock was the correct option. Except I had an itch that said “no” (not normally recommended with stocks). I know a lot of other employees did. When asked if I was, my answer was a simple “no”. No explanation. Guess I just wasn’t greedy.

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            2. In junior high school, we had a stock-tracking project in math class. I picked the half dozen stocks from electronics companies that produced color TVs or TV-adjacent stuff. (Raytheon, I believe.) Since it was around 1964, every one of those companies made something that ended up getting bought by the shipload for use in SE Asia at the time. If it had been real money, we would have been quite well off.

              I owned a bit of stock (HP, then Agilent), both not exactly growth stocks over the 2+ decades I worked there. Did OK in a mutual fund for the 401K, but all that got sold or rolled into an IRA after I retired. (Saw the writing on the wall when Carly Fiorina bought Compaq Computer and HP went to musical CEOs.)

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              1. junior high school, we had a stock-tracking project in math class.
                ……………….

                We had this in HS history class. Read ahead, pay attention to the date on the board, sell on the correct date (i.e. before Black Friday). Then grade determined how much money you had. Not how you improved your position. Students drew lots on what they did (farming, industrial, stock, banker, etc.) one could triple their position, pull out on time, and still get an F on the project. Rigged. Looked at the model, tripled the money, pulled it, hid it under the mattress (or was it in a sealed jar in the well?), took the F, and sat at a desk in the corner, and read fiction the rest of the session.

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                  1. A lesson? People who didn’t play the stock market got crushed in 1929 Black Friday. Of coarse took more than just that. But that is how the unit was determined “success” = financial status. Even though we know that there were those who didn’t know a depression was even happening. They were poor before, and poor after. OTOH they had food before and food after.

                    FYI. Might have said something then. Not that it mattered. Not fair? And? (Honestly, think teacher was not happy not playing along. Wasn’t the first or the last time.)

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          2. Mom at least sold out on a high. Not highest but high. She panicked last hiccup. Almost really screwed up but, while I couldn’t talk her out of what she was doing, at least turned into a rollover into bank money market IRA account. Yes, the interest rates she’s been getting have been horrible. Getting better. Bidenomics good for that. Oh well, figured she was good until age 96 without more interest. Just expanded it a few months to a year on interest (she only draws $300/month). She doesn’t need to live off it. But does allow her to put it into other savings for later.

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    2. China, today, has punted the whole real estate thing to the local governments. This is a vey dark grey swan with interesting long term implications, especially for second tier and below city dwellers. House prices won’t come back because these provinces are bust. Given that all social spending is local and the central government doesn’t do anything except weapons — and theft — the possibility for genuine unrest can’t be discounted.

      This could change tomorrow, China being China, but things are moving fast.

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      1. And there’s plenty of evidence that Beijing doesn’t trust the military right now.

        Of course, China being China, a new Chinese civil war – while horrific due to the casualties – would also have the dark humor element (for those not caught up in it) of both sides trying to use equipment that’s built according to China’s notoriously lax quality assurance standards.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. The areas about to get monkey hammered are where the CCP draws its troops from. Coastal cities will be fine, interior will get hammered. People back home start to really suffer. Troops look at rich coastal cities and go hmmm. It’s a very old pattern in Chinese history.

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          1. Well, coastal cities appear to be getting hammered right now, though they’ll still be able to ride it out. They just likely will be in much worse shape than they were four years ago.

            But they’ll be nowhere near the absolute squalor that the interior regions are in, which has always been the case.

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      2. There was a story last week about a piece of land in San Jose being successfully purchased by a conservation group, to be turned into a natural area park with trail connections as part of an eventual Bay Area interconnected trail system. They’d tried for this former ranch several years back, but got outbid by a Chinese investor.

        They just bought it for less than that price and are very happy about it. But I definitely noticed the Chinese investor part.

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          1. Zero Hedge did some articles a few years back about zombie properties in Vancouver. The property would get purchased, but nobody would show, and the places were left to rot.

            The SWAG in the articles was that people were trying to get their money out of the country, but either before leaving or when in Canada, they came to the attention of the CCP powers that be, with catastrophic results.

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            1. Not necessarily. Buying stuff and leaving it to rot is a valid “investment” in China. See ghost cities. Part of this is that they don’t understand “investment” they really don’t. Communism does that.

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  20. I’m not really looking for black swans. Instead I’m looking for flashpoints. The thing that causes the problem might be something out of nowhere. Or it might be a trainwreck that we can all see well in advance, and yet seem utterly unable to avoid. The Feds and Texas coming to blows over the border would be an example of the latter, imo.

    A black swan can be a flashpoint. But a flashpoint isn’t necessarily a black swan.

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  22. “So, why would they [black swans] be coming closer: Well, because we’re living in an era of high instability.”

    Oh, my ghod yes.

    And what is making everything so unstable?

    1) Government. It has been decided by whatever faction you want to call the current Western Ruling Class that everything about Western Civilization is bad and wrong, and it must all be destroyed. For my money this all seems to have happened during and after the First World War. Europe never really got over that. Europe is the cradle and the home of Western Civilization. So, a deliberate attack by all governments on their own people, ongoing since Prohibition at least. Otherwise known as sabotage.

    2) Technology. The industrial universe still hasn’t really absorbed and understood what can be done with computer aided design and manufacture. It’s only been 30 years, really. Modern, multi-axis machines available now can make parts that couldn’t be made -at all- 30 years ago, and then there is 3D printing which has barely been scratched. Add some Large Language Model action, and you’ve got -another- Industrial Revolution coming right frigging now, and that’s the third or fourth industrial revolution since WWI. Three in my lifetime alone. Computers changed everything in the 1950s, personal computers changed everything again in the 1980s, the Internet changed everything -again- in the 1990s, and now here we are, 2024, and LLMs are getting set to do it again. Who saw that coming? Nobody.

    Progress and improvement are also instability.

    3) Enemy action. Terrorists rape and murder 1200++ people on October 7th. By October 8th there are violent demonstrations all over the West SUPPORTING the terrorists.

    That’s the definition of enemy action. Somebody paid for that. See #1 for who paid for it and why. They’ve been at it for a long time, and that’s why sh1t keeps breaking. Its being undermined by ants, they’ve been at it since WWII. Even ants can bring down a skyscraper if you leave them at it for 70 years.

    So, instability. How do you deal with it? You stay loose, you don’t get too invested in your situation, and you retain your ability to move with the demands of the moment. Flexibility of the mind is the answer.

    You don’t get flexibility by investing in fear. That is an emotion that certainly has its place, but you don’t let it run the show. Easy for me to say, sitting here all comfy at my PC, but still true.

    Just remember that where there’s life there’s hope, and when you’re dead there’s nothing to worry about. Win win. ~:D

    Liked by 1 person

  23. On a tangent: a theory of protests. I’ve been seeing people saying that we shouldn’t let the gov types intimidate us out of the right to protest, and started thinking about how to differentiate glow balls from legit protests.

    I think we’ve gotten a bit too comfortable with the left’s style of ‘rage before the cameras’ style of protest and need to reset our goals and expectations to something more along the original idea.

    I think it comes down to the core right to peacefully assemble to petition for the redress of grievances. If there is a clear way the protest both petitions someone, has a clear grievance that the petitionee can respond to, and has a vague idea of how they might be able to fix it, it’s reasonable protest. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter if it glows in the dark or not, it’s not worth the time.

    The Canadian trucker protest was directly petition omg the Canadian gov for a reduction in the burdens placed on them.

    The weird Texas truck thing, who are they even asking to do what? Abott’s doing everything he can, and its all in limbo until a Supreme Court ruling, and they’re not even there.

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      1. Yup. I saw the name of that on the news today, and it became pretty clear it wasn’t put together by a right-wing group.

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        1. yep. We don’t treat G-d that cavalierly, and besides “Army” really? What for? Who are they fighting? Hurray and there they glow.
          Shame on Tucker for lending them publicity.

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  24. Were I not engaged 24/7 in building lifeboats, I would be giving more thought to “OK, if people suddenly realize that this isn’t working, what is a well-thought out alternative that we could socialize among enough people to be ready to offer it”. Something along the lines of “the Constitution, only we Really Mean It”, and with some structural changes now that we realize that greed for money and influence is even stronger for greed for power, and so politicians will cheerfully alienate their power in exchange for money and influence.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Wait a minute! Deer blinds aren’t window treatments to keep the black swans from peeking into my house?

    By their very nature, all we can ever do is be gobsmacked by Black Swans and respond from a general posture of preparedness. Guns and weapons kept close, practice suiting up in the dark, lots of shelf-stable food and drink and bribe money on hand. But while you’re waiting for the Swans, do try to make life a little better for the folks around you. One of them might be a Swan Killer.

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  26. “A university president was pulled down and her record revealed utterly fake. And the ivy leagues are in the process of discrediting themselves.”

    Bwahahaha!!! AhahahahahahaHAHAHAHAhahahaha!!!

    Yeah, fuck those people. They deserve all that humiliation and more. Now, lest anyone think I’m an uncultured troglodyte baying for the destruction of people and institutions I don’t understand, let me reassure you — while I am an uncultured troglodyte, I do have an advanced degree, and I spent almost 20 years working in higher-ed, so I know who they are and what they’ve done. Their institutions and influence need to die, the sooner the better.

    (Also, in a not very related note, certain people have very greatly enjoyed the curvature of my banana, and I’ll thank the progtard authoriteez for staying the hell away from it, cause I don’t want their infection.)

    Liked by 1 person

  27. *Shades eyes with hand and looks up to the sky.

    Those don’t look like black swans to me. It looks like a murder of crows.

    Really big ones.

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        2. A true Black Swan cannot be reasonably foreseen in specifics.

          A novel natural plague. “Acne? Who the eff -dies- of effing -acne-?”

          Martians.

          Asteroid.

          Earth mag field pole flip.

          Detroit winning Super Bowl

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            1. That’s the example I used for a hypothetical book scene. Guy is in a coma, or got drunk enough to pass out and not remember what happened, or something. Wakes up and sees newspaper headline: “President-Elect Trump Congratulates Cubs on World Series Win”. Says, “Okay, how did I end up on an alternate Earth in a parallel dimension, and how do I get home?”

              Liked by 1 person

  29. Will they change the name of Harvard University, to Plagiarism University?
    Thy found one bad prof in the medical dept. had to pull a whole bunch of papers and other papers that cited his. Then their DIE person was just called on on the big ‘P’. Karma, wonderful Karma.

    Liked by 1 person

  30. “I haven’t decided how to respond to Iran yet, I don’t want war to spread” Joe Biden speak.
    Translation: From Biden Speak to English
    No one has bribed me yet, so I am waiting for a good bribe first.

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        1. Yep, kinda makes me sick actually, another reason im most likely going to pull it wayyy back and stop working and paying taxes, just a waste now, especially since im getting older, i want those dollars in my pocket, the government doesnt deserve one dime earned by the sweat of my brow

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  31. Black Swans are unpredictable. Not just the timing, but the event, itself.

    Oct 7 doesn’t count. Hamas has been screaming “kill all the Jews” for decades. The fact that they finally did something about it is completely predictable.
    The 2008 real-estate crash was not a Black Swan. It was predicted by many people.
    The French farming protests are not Black Swans. French Labor shutsdown things all the time. It’s probably what inspired all the idiot protestors here to block roads. Even “farmers” is not new.
    The Russian invasion of Ukraine was not a Black Swan. Peter Zeihan predicted it in a 2014 book (best comment ever about him: He’s predicted 20 of the last 3 global crises).

    I agree that the Canadian trucker thing was a Black Swan, but that could be lack of knowledge on my part.

    Someone above mentioned “flashpoints”. I think that’s a better term. There are so many balls in the air. It is clear that many of them will be dropped, so that’s not a Black Swan. Which one of them will turn out to be a hand grenade is unclear.

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  32. On the TX vs SCOTUS issue, beware politicians’ statements (all lies), reporting (all lies), and the Murray-Gellman effect (what, they’re lying this time?).

    The suit at issue is whether TX should/can/must be reimbursed for the torn out fencing. It is not about whether Texas can build fences (yes) or whether the Feds can tear them down (also yes).

    Also beware that “invasion” is a term-of-art, not an English word. It’s very “iffy” if it can be applied to hordes of unarmed people flooding over the border. Most likely not, but a reasonable argument can be made that the people intercepting them are armed, and therefore constitute an armed response, which implies an “invasion”, despite the invaders themselves being unarmed.

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    1. The cartel coyotes and support staff are paramilitaries with current-issue weapons, including man-portable anti-armor systems. The fickers have Javelins.

      Liked by 1 person

  34. And the ivy leagues are in the process of discrediting themselves.

    Brief point of order. They’ve been doing that for at least two decades.

    The Black Swan is people, especially alumni, are no longer pretending otherwise.

    And, yes, I consider that the bigger surprise.

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  35. Right now…all I can do is all I can do.
    I’ve got a house remodel to finish.
    A family to take care of.
    A job that I’m learning how to do.
    Hopefully something that looks like a life.
    More writing that needs to be done.
    And the intense urge to not let the angels of my better nature have their way.
    Because my angels are the ones that have razed cities because they could.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Yep. Parent’s house to finish; job that pays the bills even though I’m looking for an excuse to get out; apartment, full of stuff to cull and organize, to remodel.

      Venting my spleen online doesn’t help do the needful.

      Liked by 1 person

  36. I hear their rustling, and the swans honking behind the screen of reeds. Black swans, awkward but manageable. Godzilla masquerading as a black swan scares the crap out of me.

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    2. Swanzilla!

      Were gonna need a bigger blind….

      ….

      Great. Now I have BOC “Godzilla” as an earworm….

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      1. “Oh, no, they say he’s got to go.
        Go! Go! Godzilla, yeah.
        Oh, no, there goes Tokyo!
        Go! Go! Godzilla, yeah!”

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  37. Insofar as the openly-enabled (I think that’s called “enforced,” or Enforced is what they’re attempting at Eagle Pass) mass influx of unvetted and unlawful immigrants constitutes “an invasion,” any requirement that US citizens house the same at private expense is a violation of the Third Amendment.

    The First Amendment and the Second generate a lot of heat, and the Fourth and Fifth are frequently either stretched or stampeded. It’s time someone brought #3 to bear.

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  40. Shootin’s started in Brussels. Rubber bullets so far. What’s going on in Europe is way beyond what went on in Canada.

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    1. Yeah. I am planning to go see the parents in May, but the feeling in my water is it might not happen.
      It’s going to get crazy and blood splattered there before here.

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      1. My wife’s sister and her husband are in Madrid, visiting Em’s nephew and family (wife and child) who live there.

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        1. Weirdly I have a lot of children of first cousins living in Madrid. That’s where the Venezuelan branch sent the next generation. Most of them my generation (and therefore 10 years older or more) elected to go down with the ship. Might be a family characteristic, at that.

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      2. Don’t see anything about it in the Lame Stream News. Taylor Swift is #1 on ‘Trending’. Maybe Fox will at least tell us it’s happening?

        The Leftroids here being so enamoured of everything Euro, you don’t think they’re stupid enough to copy? After all, monkey see, monkey do.
        ———————————
        ‘Progressives’ will do the wrong thing just because the people they hate do the right thing.

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        1. Fox won’t None of them will tell us that there’s a revolt afoot. Because they’re terrified of the masses really revolting. And not on their side.
          Turns out our state department is responsible for putting down that revolve in…. Brazil and taking out their Trump equivalent.
          Mister, we need a river. These stables ain’t ever getting clean otherwise.

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          1. The European news has water cannons being used. The rubber bullet news is being spread through social media. I’m reading the local Belgian and French news and following various social media accounts because you won’t see anything in the English speaking news, never mind American.

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      3. Depending on escalation I wonder what this does to nephew’s term abroad (Spain), this spring. Their trip to drop him off. Their middle daughter is planning to meet up with little brother for part of her trip. Little brother has some wandering plans after mom & dad separate to go to south Spain. Or whether (youngest) sister and BIL realize that the distance between Madrid and Brussels is about the distance from their home to Mt Rushmore? (Yellowstone is only 875-ish miles from us. They are slightly closer.)

        (Middle) Sister and BIL have a European trip planned this summer too. Don’t know what their youngest daughter’s work plans are. Those would put her even closer, in Germany (international company, part of her job is to travel).

        Younger sister & family, the liberal side, likely will disregard any of this type of news as ‘warmongering’ news sensationalizing what is happening. The other sister and BIL, conservative, won’t disregard, exactly, but short of a “no travel zone”, will be fatalistic about it and go.

        Yeah. I get it. It is what they do. Don’t have to like it.

        Just like you Sarah. 100% understand why you’d need to go if you can at all.

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