Everything Is Late

I woke up this morning to no clothes for lack of laundry…
So, this post is being typed by a woman in a voluminous robe.
House needs cleaning and short stories are late as heck.

So discuss California doing the Tilt Boogie. Between that and weird reports from yellowstone, are we going to catch the big one, actually?  Or is Denver just going to become beach front property?

Anyway, have fun. All the posts in mind are too complex to do RIGHT NOW.

I’ll be back.

80 responses to “Everything Is Late

  1. Paul (Drak Bibliophile) Howard

    “No Clothes”? I won’t look! 😉

    Seriously, take care. 😀

  2. Professor Badness

    Denver becoming beach front property? Like enough Californian’s haven’t moved in already?

  3. I don’t know about Denver but if we loss off the coastal areas of Cali and the Northwest, our politics would improve considerably.

  4. Having CA have major earth quakes, sucks for them. I am sympathetic.

    Having Yellowstone have earth quakes that announce an eruption, is bad, very, very, very, bad. Sucks for Montana, Wyoming, a good chunk of Idaho, because they will be obliterated. Those on site might have enough time to say “OH CR…” But it will suck for most of Canada, US continental, plus Alaska, well into Mexico. Entire world is in for a lot of pain to as “global change” gets a kick in the pants. Think global mini ice age for more than a few years.

    • My sympathies for those affected. Big quakes really hurt. Loma Prieta was bad enough, but there was a lot of emergency support close by to get things sort-of under control quickly. Really not good in the boonies.

      From what I remember from Stephanie Osborne’s volcano guest posts, Yellowstone isn’t ready for a major eruption. The upper magma chamber was pretty well empty.

      And I really hope that’s right. Living downwind of Mount Mazama gives one deep respect for big volcanos. OTOH, the Yellowstone complex makes Mt M tiny by comparison.

      ($SPOUSE’s sister called yesterday afternoon, saying that all the Richter 4.5 earthquakes guaranteed nothing bigger was going to happen. Oops!)

      • Donald Campbell

        Related, Stephanie also has a Kindle ebook “Kiss Your Ash Goodbye”. Probably nothing new from the guest posts, but a good read if you missed them.

      • “From what I remember from Stephanie Osborne’s volcano guest posts, Yellowstone isn’t ready for a major eruption.”

        Yes. Realize that. Plus, in general Yellowstone has quakes every day. Even small bigger ones are good. Shows that everything is rumbling along … in general, until it isn’t.

        • Folks were getting nervous several (30?) years ago when the Long Valley complex near Mammoth, CA was getting active. OTOH, several other big volcanoes have been kind of rumbly in that time frame, though our local suspects have been quiet. “It’s too quiet, Captain!”

          On the gripping hand, since Murphy gets a vote, we’ll probably get an eruption before the 2020 election. And it will be Trump’s fault, according to CNN, MSNBC and the alphabet networks.

          • I still get a kick out of the posters, mugs, and T-shirts that came out, late ’80, early ’81, definitely less than a year after “the event”. Volcanoes in order, from Canada to N. California, with St. Helens in her relative spot, with the caption “Okay. Boys. A one, and two, and a three. Let’s Go.” with notes interspersed in. Bad taste for the time. Naw. Not when you consider it was produced locally from the fringes (Longview, Kelso, Silver Lake, Cougar). Seems obvious now. But it was a while before anyone knew whether the new lake dam was going to hold or not. Not meant major, major, problems down stream; including Longview/Kelso and the Columbia River. We were in Longview at the time and our rental was definitely not safe if that dam went.

        • Yah, I’ll start worrying when Yellowstone STOPS having earthquakes. (And as a Wyoming resident, I’m pretty much in the realm of “Likely to die very soon after it blows” if only because all the ash will probably turn our lungs into rock in this part of the state. Sigh. We might–MIGHT–be able to outrun it with enough warning…but I gather it’s iffy at best.

          • We might–MIGHT–be able to outrun it …

            You’d only die tired. Cataclysms of that scale are civilization destroyers, impossible to predict survivability. Economic collapse, imposition of martial law (aka, transformation into a modern “enlightened” state-managed economy) and enough other factors that render prediction pointless.

          • CO ain’t much better. I have looked at the remains HERE of the last eruption. I gather dead then entombed in ash then covered in lava is most likely outcome within HOURS.

          • Yeah, pretty much. Well, I’m not too worried about dying–I just would prefer it not to be agonizing. :p

    • According to geologist Nick Zentner (watch his lectures on YT) Yellowstone already blew (that’s why it’s a caldera, not a mound), so is unlikely to blow again. However in a few million years the hotspot will be under Billings and then you can expect another Big Blowout (or more likely, a basalt flood).

      As for the SoCal quake (there was much swaying of foul poles in Dodgers Stadium, but the guys on the field didn’t even look up) … the 7.1 appears to be the peak, and what’s come since all aftershocks. The cluster map has been interesting. Before the 7.1, they were all in a distinctly crescent-shaped pattern. After, they filled in the crescent and are mostly in a straight line. I take this to be stress vs ongoing stress-relief at that spot.

      USGS realtime map:
      http://tinyurl.com/y5jreolb

      According to reports I’ve heard, there was relatively-minor damage (including a couple fires) in Ridgecrest, but that’s about it. This is pretty much the middle of nowhere. The only thing over the epicenter at Searles Valley is a surface salt mining operation. It’s about 120 miles from Los Angeles.

      • I’m afraid Nick Zenter doth not know that of which he speaks.
        My eyes bugged out a bit when I read your post. As a Geology student in Idaho, this was a major focus of study. (Even moreso than the Belt-Parcells Supergroup!) He did not do his homework.
        The current caldera was the result of the Huckleberry Ridge eruption, but the Lava Creek and Mesa Falls eruptions both occurred within what is currently Yellowstone. Neither left a mound instead of a hole. Nor do you see any overt volcanoes beyond shield volcanoes and cinder cones as you trace the track back down the Snake River Plain, but it’s one of the few (I would say only, but maybe they’ve found more in the last 20 years) places in the world where you can find Reoignimbrites, and results of mindboggling eruptions in regular cycles are plainly written across the land.
        Nor is the next eruption likely to take place at the caldera, but some 10-20 miles NW from the most recent eruption. It won’t happen at the old caldera, but under the continental divide, which is a mound by anyone’s definition.

        You can’t map the behavior of composite volcanoes onto the hotspot.
        It just does not work.

    • The July 4th quake was notable in that I felt it, and was a bit long (maybe ten seconds), but otherwise wasn’t overly unusual beyond the “did you feel the quake earlier today?” comments that we Californians typically exchange after such events. On a side-note, you can always tell the newcomers to California. They’re the ones who freak out when the ground starts to shake under their feet. You’ve all seen earthquakes in movies. The walls shake, things fall, and – if it’s a disaster B-movie – sometimes giant cracks open up in the ground. The reality is quite a bit different, and nothing really prepares you for that first time experiencing the feeling of solid ground underneath you acting in ways that it isn’t supposed to.

      The larger follow-up quake was a more serious matter. While I was never in any real danger, it did cause me to pay more attention. First was the length. Typically you’ll get some shaking, but it’ll be over after a few seconds. That was not the case with this one. It seemed to run for at least thirty seconds, and quite possibly even longer (it’s not as if I timed it). There was also the intensity. Usually, when a quake hits, you get a flat level of intensity that dies off at the end (again, usually after a few seconds). With the later quake, it started slow, then built up. That was when I started to look up and around from what I was doing. I wasn’t concerned about the walls collapsing on me. But I was worried about the possibility that the plates and other things in my cupboards and cabinets might shake themselves free of their shelves and onto my floor.

      • I remember my first earthquake. We were in Longview WA. It would have been Sept 1980. Just a little baby ground roller by my husbands assessment, he who was born and raised in San Diego. Nothing even fell out of anything (we didn’t have shelves, cats you know.) Me. She who was raised in Oregon. “Was THAT an EARTHQUAKE!!!!”

        • I remember my first earthquake
          it was my first night in CA.
          not kiddin.

          • I lived in Los Gatos for a year (well, stayed with a friend, trying to find a job, in 2009…). Sitting at my computer at home one afternoon, job hubnting, and…my desk jumped. That was it, just the desk. Freaked me the hell out for a little bit, though.

            I grew up in Tornado Alley. (Like, the heart of it, outside of Tulsa, we had tornadoes within a half mile of our house relatively frequently) I will take a tornado over earthquakes ANY DAY. At least you get a bit of warning–more if you learn to read the weather. (Which one does.)

        • My first earthquake was a — huh? What was that? Why did it feel like the house was buffeted by strong winds on such a calm day?

          Then I got online and read about the Maine earthquake.

          • Mine was mom reading some Dr. Seuss book, and then we tried to figure out why the deer heads were jangling.

          • I slept through my first earthquake. I was three. I woke in the street in my brother’s arms, looking at all our neighbors in a state of undress.
            Grandad had got his foot stuck on the (fortunately clean) guzunder and was walking with it making clang clang noises. This impressed me immensely at three. He was also swearing under his breath, but I was too young to be impressed by that.

      • My first earthquake was tiny-ish in the late 1960s; I thought it was a truck passing by in front of our house. My folks were in an aircraft hanger considerably close to the epicenter–New Madrid fault. *They* felt it as an elevator. 250 miles away from the epicenter, I noticed it, but didn’t realize it was a quake until we compared timing. The NM fault sends waves a long way.

        Once in Cali, I got used to 5s and the odd 6, but the 7.1 Loma Prieta got my attention. I was about 20 miles from the epicenter, and started to run like hell head to the door. My friends called out, and I stopped; the urge to GET OUT! was strong, even after 15 years in earthquake country.

        We got really odd looks in Oregon when we went shopping for earthquake holddowns and museum was. This, 10 years after the local city got clobbered. Oh well. Now, it’s more an understood thing. We’re near the southern latitude of the Cascadia Subduction zone, and far enough inland that it shouldn’t be devastating, but people now realize that tall stuff will fall over in a shaker. Ell brackets for the win!

    • Coastal California is only there because the crash of plates has shoved up land out of the ocean. The hills of the bay area are just sand piles being pushed up faster then erosion can cut them down. The East Bay is caused by the Hayward fault shoving East, the Calaveras pushing West along 680. So the East Bay is in a vice.The Coast Range is the result of the North American Plate moving West, colliding with the Pacific Plate moving Northwest.

      Blame the Pacific plate. Up until about 1 million years ago it was moving westerly, California was splitting off from the rest of North America. Nevada was about to become the latest ocean. When the Pacific Plate shifted its motion, coastal California was started.

      So Cal is the result of Baja crashing into North America along the San Andreas. That is why the hills of So Cal are so steep.

      • There may be a bit of confusion about cause and effect here. The boundary between the Pacific and North American plates isn’t simple, and has changed over time. There are crustal blocks caught between the two, perhaps in the process of being transferred from North America to Pacific. Most of the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley is one such block. It is not quite a part of either plate. Some blocks have rotated. Baja California is now part of the Pacific plate, was formerly part of the Mexico coast on the North America plate.

        When plate motions change the relationships between the faults change too. New faults may form which are better aligned with the current motions, old faults change their slip rates, and most of the new motion may jump from one fault to another. If the fault(s) do not align perfectly with the direction of (relative) motion you get compression or divergence. Compression will push up hills, or eventually mountains. Divergence causes pull-apart valleys. California has many examples of both.

        • just like people talking about CA falling off into the ocean and i feel the need to explain it isnt falling off its moving north….

  5. This is a very interesting earthquake sequence. The first 6.4 triggered a fault at right angles. Yesterday I noticed the 5.4 quake in the morning was northwest of the cluster of earthquakes along the triggered fault that runs SE to NW. This is very close to where the epicenter of the 7.1 occurred.
    There were a lot more aftershocks than would be expected prior to the 7.1. You could see on the USGS earthquake website how there were a lot of “aftershocks” on the fault that produced the 7.1 quake.

    A scary thing is that neither fault was seen as being a major structure. The area was just called “Little Lake fault zone”. In case you want more to worry about, there has been a cluster of 9 small quakes about 10 miles northwest, along the alignment of the fault. Another 10 mile rupture would produce another magnitude 6 quake.

    • That’s one thing that worrys me about our area. We had a damaging R 5.? about 25 years ago, and it wrecked several older buildings (so we’ve learned–before we moved.). The nervous-making bit is that the fault system locally is really poorly mapped. At least we don’t have any active volcanoes. Yet.

    • It doesn’t take a “major structure” to cause a lot of shaking and damage locally. The entire Basin and Range Province has faults which can move at any time. Some are visible at the surface, many are buried beneath sediment in the valleys. This particular sequence of quakes is near the westernmost edge of the province, where motion of the Pacific Plate is dragging California toward the northwest. A larger example would be the Lone Pine (Owens Valley) quake of 1872. Similar sized quakes occurred in 1992 (Landers) and 1999 (Hector Mine), which were further south but still part of the Eastern California Shear Zone. There is no single major fault here, no equivalent of the San Andreas. Essentially you have the continental interior undergoing extension meeting two microplates which are the Sierra Nevada block and the Mojave block. Those are moving northwest at something like 1 centimeter per year or a bit more.

  6. Earthquake magnitudes are logarithmic, so the magnitude 7.1 outside Ridgecrest, CA/China Lake NWS last night was 5ish-times bigger than the prior 6.4, but released 11+ times the energy, which explains why China Lake was “OK so far” after the former and “No longer mission capable until further notice” after the latter.

    Said energy, per a handy calculator found online:

    6.4 magnitude = 251 TJoule = 60 kilotons of TNT
    7.1 magnitude = 2,818 TJoule = 674 kilotons of TNT

    And if you integrate the seismically radiated energy release over all the big and little quakes, that equals A Whole Darn Lot.

    (calculator at: http://earthalabama.com/energy.html )

    • What with people on holiday leave, I would bet that they won’t even have a full crew to do building inspections at China Lake until Monday. I’d expect the base to be closed Monday, then brought back on a building-by-building basis.

  7. It’s a holiday weekend – the holiday weekend. Relax, do what is needful and enjoy. Remember those all important words: “McNair, more rum!”

  8. The epicenter for the California quakes is very, very close to China Lake. It will be interesting to see just how much damage there is…with the holiday, I don’t expect them to know until Monday.

    And it was felt in Mojave and at Edwards AFB, too.

  9. So far today, I have done 4 loads of washing, with an estimated 2-3 more to go. Also, made the appetizers for tomorrow, so I have less cooking to do when cooking for 9adults + 3 kids, So, I completely feel your Sorcere’s Apprentice level of laundry pain.

    …I should clean the bathrooms. I should vacuum, and mop the entire house. I should… sit right down in favourite chair, wearing only underwear, and watch hockey fight? Wait, no!

    • I’m envisioning Sorcerer’s Apprentice’s mops, buckets and vacuums. Of course, the vacuums would be on the bare floors while the carpets are getting mopped up. Nope.

  10. Where’s the advisory on Yellowstone? I’ve seen nothing, and I live SW of him. Not USGS Volcanos, not YNP . . . those feeds aren’t showing anything, and the local rag which usually loves Yellowstone scary stories is all wrapped up in chasing car jackers since yesterday.

    • Drudge has a pointer to a CNN article saying geyser activity is up at Yellowstone. It’s CNN, so take your salt.

      • Paul (Drak Bibliophile) Howard

        They likely blame it on Trump. 😉

      • I follow the Yellowstone Facebook pages extensively. A lot of reports of geysers erupting regularly that don’t normally erupt regular. OTOH it is nothing new for geysers to change behavior … Animals are not changing behaviors. But then their instincts may be, WTH, where are we going to go?

      • I view geyser activity being up as “Oh, good, pressure is being relieved.”

        It’s probably not geologically sound, but it makes me feel better 😀

        • Me too. I’m good with “Sand. Dig. Insert Head. Pull in Sand.” regarding Yellowstone and increased activity. I mean. Where are we going to go?

          • If it goes, that is when I start wondering about the semantics of suicide. Gonna die no matter what? Is it suicide to speed things up…?

            But mostly, I’m happy just ignoring it. I can’t do anything about it one way or t’other, so why stress?

    • Donald Campbell

      I did read an article that one of the really big geisers is erupting far more regularly than normal, but that is probably no more than “Big quake in California, what other earthquake related story can we dredge up to scare our readers?”

      • This AM there were also reports of a decent sized quake in Nepal, but *shrug* when are there not decent sized quakes in the Himalayas?

        Now, if the media can find a way to blame Trump for the gas explosion in the mall in FL as well as for the earthquakes, then we’ll have something popcorn worthy.

        • On the 4th, there was also a 6.4ish quake in the Pacific, halfway between Vancouver Island and the next big island up the coast. Not a heavily populated area, though some fishing ports might have been shaken.

          Perhaps Trudeau can get blamed for that one.

        • Easy. Trump’s immigration xenomiscy caused falsified inspections.

          “The earthquakes in California might seem unrelated to Trump, but there was also one in Oklahoma. The one in Oklahoma caused the California earthquakes. The Oklahoma earthquake was triggered by fracking. Fracking that Trump didn’t stop.

          Of course, if you talk to the sort of All-Right Neocons who get tenure at Oklahoma Universities, some of the geology faculty might try to tell you that the seismology doesn’t work that way. According to Oklahoma faculty, Oklahoma’s earthquakes are caused by gay marriage.

          Deep beneath Oklahoma, things whose civilization predates humanity lie resting, until recently quietly. While their form of reproduction is entirely unlike ours, being so old means that they are extremely conservative. Their reactionary minds find gay marriage absurd and extremely disturbing, and their rest lately has been unquiet. All this is common knowledge among Oklahomans.

          On May 16th of this year, while attending my local conference of how digital markets need to be regulated in the current era, one of the law faculty of the University of Oklahoma informed me of confidential information from an Oklahoma geophysics concern that shows that there is a definite correlation between the disturbed sleep of the things, and Oklahoma’s earthquakes. He later emailed me about how pleased he was to move into a leadership position where he could more effectively address the root cause of the problem.”

          In all seriousness, I know nothing at all about whatever gas explosion it was. If I am unlucky, there exists someone who appears to fit the ‘fact’ pattern of the lies within the double quotes.

      • That’s Steamboat-woke up about a year ago and has been busy since. Sometimes it’s dormant for years. I think it set a new record for eruptions within a year-but given how long Yellowstone’s geysers have been actively and contineously monitored, that’s kind of like concluding that the Germans never go to war.

      • It’s one that does that every few years. Nothing terribly unusual.

  11. It might be a paradox, but I don’t think that life is possible on a planet that isn’t trying to kill you.

    Without convection in the mantle we wouldn’t have a magnetic field protecting the Earth. Convection in the mantle creates or is co-dependent on plate tectonics which cause earth quakes and volcanoes. The regular churning and moving of the crust (which we happen to be standing upon) sorts and concentrates minerals which can be mined and utilized to build a civilization.

    • Welcome to Shikhari. (And Australia.)

    • Don’t think that’s a paradox- because from what I see- the universe is trying to kill you. Somewhere out there right now there’s a big rock with Earth or bust! written it’s side. We should be actively planning to find and deflect it before it finds us.

    • Donald Campbell

      I think “life” may be more common, but multicellular life is a different matter. Swampy bog of organic soup basking on the plain under the red dwarf sun might be common. But only where you have violent weather, dangerous radiation, churning of the crust and running from the quakes and volcanos [the under-ocean ones being a great starting point], and comets and meteors adding to the mix; that is where life has to get complex or go away.

      • Multicellular is the big jump. It seems to have happened only once here on earth, and it took billions of years. We seem to be a combination of the DNA of the two different types of single cell creatures that somehow, (I attribute it to God’s weird sense of humor, along with the Platypus) got together.

        But we are also the product of a long list of improbables. We are in a stable orbit in our galaxy. We orbit a stable star that does not vary that much in radiation. Jupiter seems to have cleaned out most of the rocks that would kill us. The Mars sized planet that hit us gave us a nice tilt and a large moon. The moon is now far enough away that tides are useful, not too high. (imagine how high the tides would be if the moon was only 20,000 miles from us.

        We can thank the blue green algae for the air we breath. If you had a time machine and went back 4 billion years ago, you would drop dead the moment you stepped out of your ship. This is not a complete list, only a sample of some improbables.

        So much had to go right, for us to be here. I figure God played with loaded dice to create us. We are a 4 quadrillion to one bet that paid off.

        • Donald Campbell

          I also understand there is a goldilocks zone, or minimum distance toward the galaxy core. Seems the giant black hole there has an accretion disk, and when it falls into the black hole giant plumes of gamma radiation stream from the poles. Enough leaks out to the ecliptic to make life iffy for systems closer to the center.

          • Too close in you get fried. Too far out and you don’t have enough “metals”. The safe distance seems to be about 20,000 to 30,000 light years from the center. Some of those plumes in other galaxies look very dangerous.

            You also need to be in a galaxy that isn’t in a cluster. When Galaxies collide, the black holes of both galaxies are a danger. When the collision ends, you can be too close to the black holes as they merge, and bad things happen. It would be spectacular to watch, until you died.

            Also, our star is a late arrival. The Galaxy was almost 10 billion years old when we started. There are lots of galaxies that have stopped forming stars by that time. Our late arrival means there was more time for heavy elements to be produced (“metals”), so there could be “earth”. Lots of reasons we are “special”.

  12. good thing you didnt make a typo, otherwise we’d be soaked in coffee with foamy milk

  13. It’ll take a lot more than a 7 quake to put all of California under the waves. I’m in Sacramento and the earth did not move for me too.

  14. Of general interest is this piece on how public opiniion is stage-managed by Progressive activists (using tax-exempt funds, I wager.)

    Exclusive ‘Justice On Trial’ Excerpt: Inside The Left’s Coordinated Anti-Kavanaugh Campaign
    JULY 8, 2019 By The Federalist Staff
    A new book on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court reveals the depth of coordination his opponents engaged in to stop the nominee.

    In “Justice on Trial” The Federalist’s Mollie Hemingway and the Judicial Crisis Network’s Carrie Severino write that liberal groups coordinated and paid for the supposedly spontaneous protests in the first round of hearings and that Democratic senators staged Christine Blasey Ford’s hearing to create parallels with Anita Hill.

    Read The Whole Thing (it is brief)

    Gee, if only this nation had an independent press that looked behind the curtain of such productions.

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