
Fun fact: when I was little I thought going over Niagara Falls in a barrel was something people did at least once in a lifetime, for the heck of it. Like, I was convinced there were long lines of people, rolling barrels, waiting their turn to go over the falls.
You see, it was featured in so many of the things I read or watched, like adventure books, or comics, or cartoons, that I thought it must be part of a normal life thing. You went to Disneyland (well, that was featured in the comics), you visited the Grand Canyon, and well, of course you went over the falls in a barrel.
This type of razor-sharp hold on reality is why I spent vast amounts of time in childhood learning to walk really silently, to balance on a narrow ledge or to get out of ropes tying my hands together. Not to mention watching out for quicksand, and having plans if I should fall into it. Because my choice of entertainment had told me those skills were absolutely vital if I hoped to survive.
I remembered this as I tried to find an image for today’s blog. Another fun fact: Midjourney clearly didn’t read the same books I did as a kid, because “barrel tumbling over Niagara Falls” was unobtanium and I’m tired and not in the mood to fight it.
Why did I remember that?
Well, partly because I’m feeling guilty about not having finished reading The Man Who Sold The Moon — but it has been truly odd and stupid out here with occasional episodes of not sleeping — and I was thinking of stories of that period. A lot of it written by Clifford Simak.
And today, in the car, on the way to an appointment, when there was absolutely no way to write anything down, I thought of the opening to a Clifford-Simak like story, where the journalist comes in to the newspaper to finish a piece he’s been working on, and the robots are finishing cleaning up, the automated AI coffee machine is yelling because it ran out of grounds, and a spaceship is visible through the plate glass window taking off, in the distance.
Maybe some day I’ll write it, except that as of yet there is no story, just the man (?) going into the office in the early morning and dealing with what’s for him a completely normal bog standard start of the day, but to us is amazing and fantastical. Of course, when a story presents that way, usually starting to write it tells me where it’s going and what the story is. Don’t try this at home. if I’d done this as a beginning writer, I’d have pages and pages in which he fixed the coffee maker, drank the coffee, finished his article, went out for lunch– It’s just at this time in my life, I’ve written so many stories my subconscious only spits out the beginning when it is ready to tell ME the story. — brrr. Just got the cold suspicion that thing is a novel. So I’m going to let it lie until I have at least a week or two to run it from beginning to end.
Anyway, because I was in the car, and didn’t have the means of writing the story, it saved me from the stupid of starting it. (They lie in wait these novels. Worse than the dreaded Portuguese spider-fish under the sand on a sunny beach.) Instead I started thinking about how charming those Simak stories were, in a world that was very much like mid century America, only with sentient, fully automated houses that looked after their people by making them food and flying them around and stuff, or diners run by AI (though he didn’t use that term) who had the personality of motherly, gossipy middle aged women. I thought of his stories in which the newsroom was weirdly automated — not in the way you’d expect — or there were newsfeeds from the stars, or whatever, but they were still banging out the stories on typewriters.
And of course, news were produced, sold, consumed via newspapers.
Of course, the man was a newspaper man. And nothing against him for that, but also he was capable of working out chains of event and consequence. I know that, because I love his novels. But apparently not capable of working out that the kind of tech that gave you seemed-sentient robotic diners would also affect a whole lot of other things. A tech level where the house flew would probably have affected…. well, everything. Semi-sentient houses that fly would have blown up the mid-20th-century society and ethos all to heck and back.
Only of course, people don’t think like that. And even if they did, it would be hard to sell a story like that, because present-day-reader wouldn’t have an in. Meaning they couldn’t mentally move into the story and live there long enough to bond with the people and feel the emotions.
But you know, some things do remain the same. It’s just most classical science fiction assumed a lot more things would stay stable in the change of tech.
And …. we still do.
Recently I read (and linked at instapundit, though of course I can’t find it now) an article where the author was talking about how we’re hitting a massive changeover post in which all our institutions of knowledge are failing.
Our very own Sargent Mom did a post about our educational institutions passing away.
But the thing is…. it’s not just them. It’s everything.
We didn’t get the future of starships and flying houses. (Yet. I’m still holding out for starships and colonizing other planets. I’ll pass on flying houses.)
What we got instead seemed small and innocuous. it was the the ability to process vast amounts of data, so distributed that everyone has a mid-century computer in his pocket, and on his desk, pretty much. And these computers give us the ability to talk to anyone around the world. Oh, and to publish our own news and editorials to be read by thousands or millions. And … upend the world.
We started tumbling in the nineties with ecommerce and the internet, and Amazon and and and and–
And we haven’t stopped. Yes, it is completely making over our knowledge institutions, and the way we learn and communicate and–
A lot of things are passing away, some of which we need and will be surprised as they pass and might or might not have a replacement.
The thing is, when the barrel is going over the Falls, it’s difficult to tell what’s going to tumble, and what will move, and what will get broken. Or what will be functional in a weird way when we stop tumbling.
There is no way to know it.
My younger duct tape brother is telling me the responsible adults around him — well, I didn’t talk to the responsible adults around me, okay? — told him going over the Falls would kill him, even in a barrel.
Fortunately societies aren’t just fragile humans, and the barrel is a metaphor. As are the Falls.
The tumbling isn’t though.
There’s a good chance our society will be alive at the end of it — I’m not putting hands in the fire for Europe and I know other societies will break, badly — and functional. But I suspect we wouldn’t fully make sense of it if we were dropped in the middle of it today.
Fortunately, we’ll get there one day at a time, which makes it easier.
Just…. watch out for unstable floorboards (they make noise) and quick sand, and keep moving, stay flexible. I think it’s okay if you make some noise, but do learn out to get out of binds that you find yourself in.
Or in other words, remember everything is going to tumble and change. Big or small, everything is going to change. Everything.
We’re in the barrel. We’re tumbling.
Brace. Stay positive, stay alert, stay ready to shift and survive.
…. Be ready to take the weight when things come crashing down, because a lot of things will. Oh, not — hopefully — civilization, the monetary system, or technology. No. but the institutions, the certifications, the way things are done. The things human live by.
Remember that any of that could go away, and keep an eye on it.
Be nimble enough to see the next thing, to build the next thing. To create the future.
Stay ready. Keep going. If you fall, pick yourself up. If your buddy falls, pick him up.
And keep moving.









































































































































