Brace, Brace, Brace

Posted on by Sarah A. Hoyt

*First, yes, yes, I’m going to get back on a reasonable schedule for the blog soonest. Sorry. the pneumonia seems to be past, but it left my asthma ridiculously spun up, which means … still slow. It will improve. And I’ll do some writing on Rhodes in the free giveaway stuff today too. ALMOST functional again. Turns out shock of any kind can worsen autoimmune. even good shock. Who knew?- SAH*

Okay, so at this point you’re looking at the title and the picture and wondering if I had this scheduled before the election.

No.

Brace. We’re in for a heavy economic crash.

Stop staring at me like I’m crazy. No, nothing Trump will do, and the pop up from it will be easier than it would have otherwise been, because we were in for a crash anyway. The big difference is the timing of the crash. The crash, if the democrats had won, was going to come now. Tomorrow, maybe. That way they could blame it on Biden, and it would also give Harris the excuse to implement all sorts of — let’s face it — communist measures on the back of the crisis. Now they’re going to try like hell so it crashes January.

If you’ve heard Trump is already working hard with his transition team? That’s why. He also sees it coming, and he’s not an idiot. He has to make sure we recover in the first two years, one if possible so we don’t take a bath in midterms.

But Sarah, you’ll say, why would the economy crash now?

People: the economy has already crashed. We are in an actual depression and have been for a while. All our friends — all highly skilled people — who lose their jobs have a hell of a time finding a new one. If you’re over fifty you’re now retired. And the companies who claim they can’t find employees are mostly lying to justify not hiring more people, because everyone is hurting.

How bad hurting? In October we lost net 28k jobs, all over the country, when “static” is creating around 300k. How bad hurting? Well, we both work and yeah, this year has been lit as far as home repairs, and my being swallowed by a yuge book means nothing has come out BUT holy heck people, we’re feeling the pinch. We have no kids at home. We both make money. We live below our means house wise. We take no vacations except to go to cons, which is deductible. And we’re being careful. Not hurting as such but “do we really need that extra x this year?” careful.

I know what friends who still have kids in the house are doing to survive. It’s crazier than Obama’s summers of recovery when I was buying ten turkeys on sale after thanksgiving, chopping them up or grinding them so that the kids could eat meat the next six months. (Because sometimes 25c a pound. And that we could afford, even with the bones subtracted. I used them for broth, anyway.) It’s bad out there.

The democrats’ song and dance about how great the economy is ranks up there in extreme “how crazy are you?” because everyone who grocery shops knows otherwise, and how.

So– We’re probably already in a depression. Why wouldn’t trump coming in make it better?

Because as Ray Bradbury put it in 1992 the economy is a matter of perception to an extent. How people behave and whether they still buy even if on credit, can prop up a disastrous economy. A panic can crash a decentish but fragile economy. The left are past masters at using their media to manipulate perceptions, and while it doesn’t work as well as it used to, until recently it has worked.

My perception of the economy in general is that we’re Wile E. Coyote, running over the abyss, and if we look down it crashes hard.

I’ve always believed that the crash would come end of this year, because I expected them to fraud Harris in. Since they had a fraud fail (oh, they still had fraud. Probably 50% of their vote. They just couldn’t do the last minute stuff in the eyes of the world. Our first order of business is THOROUGH investigations and clean up) they’re going to try to hold it through January, then let the bottom out, mostly in perception, though people like Soros also manipulate markets.

Keep this mind.

Keep it in mind, because some of Trump’s program is going to hurt. Yes, I’m talking about tariffs and my libertarian friends will have to forgive me because I know tariffs are heresy, but… I disapprove of tariffs. In a just and free world, we wouldn’t need them.

But as much as tariffs will hurt us, yes, Trump needs to slap them on Mexico to make them stop the act of war of letting us be invaded via their territory. Of channeling them in. That needs to stop. We can respond to it militarily or …. economically. Both will hurt. tariffs will kill fewer people and redirect our industry internally again.

More importantly, we need to slap tariffs on China. Hard. Look, there is no reason to buy cheap plastic sh*t much less anything else from a country who uses slave labor. And your progressive friends who claim to be so anti-slavery need to be hit on the snout twice a week with their willingness to foster this.

In the late eighties early nineties, we knew factory operators. No, not owners. These were little automated factories, in the middle of nowhere, STAFFED by two people: night and day shift. They produced…. oh, watering cans, colanders, all the stuff we now buy from China.

Why do we buy it from China? Partly environmental regulations both for sourcing the materials and for running factories. And the up front costs of endless paperwork. So entrepreneurs ran away and patronized China. Incentivizing a country that employs slaves and jeopardizing our national security and health even.

Yes, I know, I had the libertarian dream too “If they are wealthier, they’ll be freer.” It didn’t work that way. In the way of totalitarian regimes only a very few got wealthier. And freedom never came. Worse, they use our money and our dependency on them to interfere in our governance our politics, our ability to be free.

It’s time to stop it. Tariffs might be just what we need to push the rotten and tottering edifice that is China RIGHT over so they stick to their knitting and stop buying our politicians.

At the same time, regulations need cut to the bone, so that industry can come home. We have the know how. We have the unemployed young and middle aged men yearning to make money and with enough inventiveness to take the next step in that automated industry thing.

The future is so bright we should all invest in sunglasses stocks.

BUT on the way there it’s going to hurt. Hurt like a living mother. Hurt more than you’ve ever hurt before.

I trust the team Trump assembled and Trump’s own business expertise to make the impact lighter than it would otherwise be. If he’s not already planning for the recovery and to make it fast, I’ll eat the hat I don’t have.

It’s still going to hurt. So, brace. Don’t engage in irrational exuberance. I’m low key mad because I want to make Christmas gifts and I can’t, because I’m still recovering slow. But…. do Christmas as cheaply as you can. (I know this varies per family.) And lay down food and long term stuff. If you can, put some money by to survive six months to a year of utter hell. And — I can’t believe I’m saying this, since we really don’t use credit unless in a dire emergency — get credit now. equity loans, credit cards, whatever. Get them. Don’t use them, but in a dire pinch it’s best to borrow than to be tossed on the street to live in a refrigerator box. (Save the refrigerator boxes too, though — okay, I’m only half joking. And it’s not funny.)

Most of all know it’s coming, and it’s the result of the last four years. Prep your family with that knowledge too, so the less economically aware don’t decide Trump broke everything.

In the end we win, they lose.

But it’s going to get a little tight in the mean time.

Sursum Corda. Or if you prefer “Ride right through them. They’re demoralized as hell.”

Now, brace and prepare.

250 thoughts on “Brace, Brace, Brace”

  1. Yes. What I’ve been seeing is that interest rates have been suppressed by the fed trying to make the numbers for the government look better in the run up to the election, but they’ve been well behind where they need to be for the inflation we’ve got.

    Now that the election is over, they’re going to rise, a lot.

    It’s going to be a rough correction. My consolation is a rough correction, as long as we don’t hit famine in the streets, means a quicker recovery, and more stable aftermath.

    Liked by 2 people

            1. The psychology of the mob is a big part of the economy. If most believe its a boom, it will boom as they do boom things. If most believe its a bust, it will bust as folks do bust things.

              “Consumer Confidence” and “Producer Confidence” are huge:

              “Trump won, so I am buying a new truck instead of a used beater.”

              “Trump is gonna wreck foreign commerce, so I better expand in Pennsyltucky instead of offshoring to North Elbonia.”

              “Brandon wrecks everything he touches, and is senile to boot. He has 72 days to putter about. I am buying Gold and stuffing the mattress.”

              “Trump is going to crucify the Donks, and hopefully select generals. I am investing in hand tool makers, timber, and popcorn futures.”

              No one wants to admit the whole thing of Economics depends on who believes which carnival barkers. It does. Thus, “The Dismal Science”.

              Liked by 1 person

  4. Once again, Americans rose the the challenge and saved Western civilization. This time. Unfortunately, you have to keep saving Western civilization, over and over again.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. We’re already planning for an inexpensive Christmas, here at Chez Hayes, so we have that expectation already. Our pantry is already stocked well … but the brightest spot in our sky is that the 3-year mortgage on my little patch of paradise will be paid off in March, 2025. That will free up a good portion of the military pension. I don’t intend to live lavishly, and my tastes are fairly simple … so no need to save that refrigerator box as emergency housing…

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Yeah! Congrats on the pending pay off. Mom and Dad Red took advantage of plummeting mortgage rates in the 1980s-90s and paid off the house. The banker was pleading with them to refinance instead. Nope!

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      1. We last refinanced in 2009, at 3.325%, and just what we owed (about 25% of real market value). At that rate? I round up to nearest 100. We can earn more than 3.325%. Should have refinanced when rates were lower, but we missed that because we were arguing over another 30 years or just 15 years (less than what was remaining at the time). Oh well. 3.325% is a lot better than the original 13.5%!

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        1. We were lucky.

          When we moved in 2019, we sold our CA house and I pulled everything out of my IRA to combine with the house proceeds – and my house in CG is completely paid for. (Tax consequences for that were horrendous, but ultimately worth it.) Our first real new house in 47 years.

          Actual cost to build new in Oregon was less than our 50-odd year old house sold for in CA but we had a mortgage to pay off. We probably re-financed that one half a dozen times in 30 years, always for lower rates.

          The stock market has been extremely good to her IRA, now rolled over into mine. I have to say that the TIAA managers did a good job asking about our intentions and risk tolerance (moderate to low) and desire to be involved in detailed financial decisions with those accounts (nil), and structured things well.

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  8. I just KNEW I was feeling too exuberant over our near miss of the commies taking over.

    An unease that just wouldn’t go away no matter how many electoral and popular votes were tallied.

    As soon as I read this, I recognized why.

    Things that can’t go on forever, won’t. And they have bled the country dry since they figure to make their getaway with the loot before anyone is the wiser. Then they also mean to make us all pay because we are garbage Hitler lovers who won’t let them sacrifice the babies. So it will be as terrible as possible for us if they can swing it.

    The would rather see Hobbits enslaved rather than Hobbits happy and free.

    I intend to live my best life.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. What they don’t realize is that we’ve learned how to pull together and ignore them, working around them. It will be rough, but we can get through this. Subsidiarity for the win – what we can do in our neighborhoods and communities, let’s do.

      Liked by 1 person

  9. We went to our favorite diner for lunch today and… the conversations around us were interesting.

    We also noted that, while things are still going to be tight for a while, the pinch doesn’t hurt quite so bad this morning because we know there’s an end in sight. Hope vs Despair is a powerful thing and, while I agree with you that the end of the year is going to suck, I’m willing to sacrifice now because there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

    If Harris had gotten in, I would have been working on hunkering down and surviving. Now, I’m enduring, and have plans to move forward.

    Liked by 3 people

  10. Hurt more than you’ve ever hurt before.

    Well, I’ve had cancer twice (surgeries, chemo, radiation, the whole nine yards), spent 35 months unemployed after age 50 (in 9, 2, 9, and 15 month chunks), divorced (after my ex got pregnant from someone else but I paid the child support because TX), and assorted other things one picks up in 60+ years.

    But I agree it won’t be a party. And I don’t think we can trust anyone but God to see us through.

    God bless us, every one.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. Thank you for the reply.

        i was not trying to make light of what is undoubtedly ahead of us.

        I have experienced months when it could only have been God’s Providence that allowed my family to pay the mortgage, eat, and so on. Real Philippians Chapter 4 stuff.

        We won’t go through it without help from above. And we won’t be unchanged—we have already been changed a bit.

        Like you say, we win, they lose. But we may need God to multiply our “3 small loaves and 2 small fish” to keep on feeding us. So we need to stay close to him.

        Liked by 1 person

  11. Been expecting a crash for several years. You can’t spend more than you make forever – it eventually catches up. Economists sneer at that as peasant logic. Sorry but math is math for peasants or nations. Predicting how long they can kick the can down the road is impossible. They have all sorts of tricks to put off the day of reckoning. A lot of our inflation was exported due to the demand for dollars. That’s coming to an end. The debt is now climbing in TRILLIONS and it won’t be possible to service that debt. The Fed follows rates not sets them. Their supposed control is a lie. It’s late in the game to seek safety but if nothing else bankruptcy exists for a reason if you can’t adjust in the time left. A lot of businesses are heavily levered and will fail when they can’t refinance cheaply. You will have fewer choices and pay more. People will have to learn to cook the cheapest stuff they can find at home and dropping $5 on a fancy coffee (soon to be $10 coffee) will be a memory that amazes them.

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    1. Looking back at history, the only ways out of that massive debt are:

      • Deflate the currency – which is already being done in spades via inflation. Pretty much every rich and powerful dynasty since 1200 BC has known that all currencies depreciate. Notable exceptions being Henry III’s silver penny, Venetian Ducat, and the Florentine Florin.

      • Increase cash flow – historically by colonial investments or conquest, in modern days it is mostly by prioritizing exports like China did in the 2000s and Japan did in the 80s. We are way past the time of the Hudson Bay Company, British East India Company, the Abir Congo Company of notorious the Belgian Congo, or ARAMACO in the 50s.

      • Have a victorious war, hopefully short – worked in WW1 for US and Japan, not so much for England and Russia, and was disastrous for Germany and the Ottomans. More recent wars show this is very risky and doesn’t earn as much return.

      This, as always, is just IMHO.

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      1. We are way past the time of the Hudson Bay Company, British East India Company, the Abir Congo Company of notorious the Belgian Congo, or ARAMACO in the 50s.

        Which is why Elon Musk is trying to get us off planet.

        Liked by 1 person

  12. We’re fairly well set. Have a decent amount of food, spare auto fuel, and backup propane. The last expensive project happens tomorrow. Tree cutting used to be fairly cheap, but with insurance and fuel, it’s now a bit of an ouch. Still, best to have pros deal with 3′ diameter trees.

    I might have one medical procedure coming up. One retina that was worked on 7 years ago is showing signs of problems again, and the medication for it is less effective than hoped. I see the doc next month and we can decide what to do. Insurance pays most for a procedure, leaving travel and some of the meds out of pocket. (Need one to counteract the side effects of another. Whee.) If I do it, I’ll stay west of the Cascades for a week or so. Going over the mountains proved to be a challenge with this surgeon’s procedure, but I know what to do.

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  13. we’ve been in a recession since WuFlu. Arguably, we’ve been in one since Obama took over with Trump being a bump on the downward trend. I have charts. Bwahahaha. Now that Trump has been elected, look for all the headline numbers to stop being pumped up and recession being the word of the day/week/month. For myself, a double digit unemployment rate in DC, Montgomery County, MD, and Fairfax County, VA would be wonderful.

    On a more interesting, to me anyway, note, I live on the flight path to Trump’s house in Bedminster. three presidential USMC helicopters flew over as I was taking my evening walk. he’s got full SS now and I wonder if it was he. God bless, keep, and preserve him. We’ve been given a reprieve and the path to the planets and the stars is open again, for a little while. Let’s make the best of the opportunity.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Saw somewhere that assassination targets now include Elon and RFK II. I assume Musk has a decent team for himself, and hope that there’s a good one for Kennedy.

      Liked by 1 person

        1. Elon has the security team you’d expect the richest guy in the world to have. You can see some of his close detail in the videos by Everyday Astronaut where Elon and he are walking around the Starbase facility in Boca Chica – those guys wearing jackets carefully and continuously looking around at everyone and everything else but him, keeping station at a certain distance as he moves around.

          But that being said, I bet they are hiring.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Folks like Musk hire former Tier-1.

            The problem then is one of personality compatibility. The folks we choose as “Tier 1”, whatever unit, are often very, very different men from the rest of us. This has consequences.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. This is why I’ve always thought it would be interesting to have bodyguards. They’d basically be aliens to me. The initial conversations would be an exercise in talking past each other.

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            2. I have heard that the guys who came up through Army special forces training, even if they are so good they end up invited to hang out with those doorkicker guys who use cavalry unit names, have an advantage from the green beanie emphasis on cooperation and training and interaction with indigenous forces, which sets them up to deal with the public and the principal better than the swim-in-at-night-and-knife-them or parachute-in-and-rescue-the-pilot guys.

              Obviously not in every case, and that level of guy is by nature and selection flexible and smart and adaptable, but the emphasis in those years of training matters.

              I have always wondered where the female protective folks hone their mojo. There are clearly women at that level, but how do they stand out and get trained?

              Liked by 1 person

      2. IIRC, it was Trump who shamed the Administration into providing Secret Service protection for RFK Jr. I doubt he’s relaxing that.

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            1. I’m thinking more of the quality of Secret Service protection, as displayed at Butler, PA.

              As far as relaxation, I’d not put anything outside the current administration to screw up “by accident”.

              Liked by 1 person

              1. Yeah, were it me I’d have asked to get loaned some of Trump’s own private detail to “supplement” Secret Service fumblefinger DEI hires.

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              2. Have to wonder; since secret service are not all political appointees (and even the lower level appointees), the Biden adminisitration is outgoing and Trump on the way in … probably want to keep on the good side of Trump.

                Not suggesting the rank and file did less than their best, but whom gets assigned where, how many, etc. are above rank and file decisions.

                The motivation likely has changed among middle to upper management?

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    3. Re the helos, probably not. There’s only one VIP Movement TFR in the FAA system for the east coast right now, and that’s over Brandon’s stretch of sand at the beach in Delaware:

      Location :Rehoboth Beach, Delaware
      Beginning Date and Time :November 08, 2024 at 2200 UTC
      Ending Date and Time :November 11, 2024 at 0230 UTC
      Reason for NOTAM :Temporary flight restrictions for VIP Movement

      Your overflight was probably flight crew training to get them all familiar with the new operating areas.

      link to FAA TFR map: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr_map_ims/html/index.html

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  14. We should have been in a economic slump back in 2020, but the helicopter money from Covid kicked that can down the road and made things much, much worse.

    Now that the election is over, the bandages will be torn off. Expect TPTB to make it worse for Trump.

    Your CWII preps are also your GD II preps.

    God bless everyone.

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    1. Unlike many, none of us looked at the Covid $ as play money. Oh it stretched our money. But we didn’t go out and splurge. Nor did we delay any payments.

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      1. Us too. We’d just lost one convention after another, just when we thought 2020 was going to finally get us to where we’d been before having two *big* comic conventions lose on us back in 2016 (were told they’d be huge winners, but for whatever reason we just didn’t have the Right Stuff for them). We had all the possible Covid money schemes planned out as how they would help us keep afloat.

        If it hadn’t been for a family member being able to help us out, we would’ve lost everything once the convention circuit shut down. Since then, he’s been helping us get our debts from previous misfortunes paid down, so we’re actually in better shape than we were in January 2020 — but not nearly as much as I’d like to be.

        Our last convention of 2024 is next weekend. Then I need to pivot to eBay sales for the winter and really buckle down on the writing. There are a bunch of projects I really want to get off my plate — and I need to get back to promotional activity as well, including newsletter swaps and bundles (one of those projects I mentioned is an article on using newsletter swaps and bundles to keep the sales going after the initial bump).

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      2. My beloved remains proud that not only did his company not take any Covid money, nobody missed a paycheck.

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  15. For a long time, it’s been my custom to buy two to four turkey thighs a week, boil them for a few hours, use the meat, and put the broth in the freezer reuse (after four or five cycles it’s an amazing soup base). But the last couple of times I bought packages of turkey thighs from Sprouts, and popped them in the fridge, they smelled of decay the next morning. So now I’m making do with chicken thighs, which don’t provide as much meat or have as much flavor. . . .

    Liked by 1 person

      1. Local Sprouts got a lot of goodwill from me when I left my money clip with all my IDs, credit card, debit card, etc there and they promptly locked it in the store safe and made me confirm my address before they got it out. But now they’re on the, “bring a bag or buy one,” kick and they don’t have anything unique to make me go there.

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      2. Trafer Joe’s (and no, I don’t shop a lot in ritzy grocery stores) in Nashville had the infantilizing, “Your mask protects me, my mask protects you,” jingle up during WuFlu. But when my beloved was in the hospital, this summer the staff was very kind to me (the store is easy to find from the hospital).

        Liked by 1 person

        1. In the height of Covidiocy, the TJ’s in Medford had to go along with the state-mandated occupancy limit. So, there was a line to get into the freaking store to even start shopping. Wasn’t their fault. Between Oregon Health Authority (at least the first word wasn’t a lie) and Despicable Kate Brown, they were screwing with a lot of stores. Didn’t hear the jingle; might have gone berserker if I had.

          JoAnns had the limit, though like reasonable ‘Muricans, two of us waited patiently (for values) in the vestibule/airlock to be allowed into the store. Home Desperate had the line set up, but midweek and midmornings, it tended to be a nonissue.

          FWIW, I’m not sure the local JoAnns has recovered. They usually have two employees now in the store, and on the mid/mid hours, maybe 2 to 5 customers. Hell when it’s a big store. We stopped buying gift cards (for the Kroger fuel points) when word came that they are on the financial edge. Don’t want to be in the unsecured creditor basket if they fall. Probably more a “when”, alas.

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          1. It was written on a blackboard in front of the store.

            I was in the local JoAnns today. They have a yarn sale on and done some re-stocking. I really hope they keep going. I would have expected Michael’s to under first.

            Hobby Lobby is the Chick-Fil-A of mass-market craft stores. They’re always crowded.

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            1. Hobby Lobby is where I was first culture-shocked after moving here. The one here is (apparently) popular with the open carry crowd. A revolver in a shoulder holster with short sleeves is an interesting look.

              Liked by 1 person

          2. I ventured out at the height of wuflu lockdown to grab something or other at Target, but when I puled into their parking lot and saw the long line of people standing out in the bright sunshine 6 feet apart stretching across the entire front of the store in their masks waiting for their allowed turn inside, I myself turned, driving out of the lot and have not darkened their doorway since.

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            1. Was that their choice, or were they being forced to comply with a government decree? Because we had the same thing here. 50 people standing outside in the rain for half an hour to prevent them from ‘overcrowding’ a gigantic warehouse store with 20′ ceiling.

              I swear COVID was an excuse for every petty authoritarian to let their inner idiots run loose.

              Liked by 1 person

              1. Other places were not requiring extended distance Soviet queing, just masks when in stores. Target was “going the extra mile”. Screw them and their horse. I am never going into another Target, unless chased into one during the next zombie apocalypse, and even then I’ll look to see if I can run somewhere else instead.

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                1. The local target has *eleven* “no guns” signs on or near its main door. After the state went Constitutional Carry, they added some “even if you have a concealed carry license!” stickers too.

                  Their corporate HQ page also describes their gun ban, and brags about their contributions to anti-gun organizations.

                  I have to walk by Target to get to another store occasionally. I haven’t been in a Target since the 20th century.

                  None of their signs have any legal meaning in my state; the worst they can do is ask you to leave the store if they notice you’re carrying. But since they’re so insistent about violating my Constitutional rights, they’ll never see any of my money.

                  Liked by 1 person

                  1. In Oregon, it’s illegal to ignore the no-guns sign. Sigh.

                    Haven’t been in Target since some time in 2003 or ’04. None in Flyover Falls, and sufficient alternatives exist for what they sell.

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                    1. No, it’s not. Unless something changed in the last couple years I didn’t hear about. As Oregon doesn’t define what a legal “NO GUNS” sign is by statute, the worst you can get is being asked to leave and if you don’t, being hit with trespassing.

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                    2. Same with anything. Run into this with service animal (dog or horse) where it is illegal for them to ask you to leave. Still must or be charged with trespassing. Sure you can then file a an ADA discrimination suit with the DOJ (both state and federal). Doesn’t mean it will go anywhere. But you can file it. Can also make a social stink about it, works about as good.

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                    3. [Looks it up. I’m wrong. Yippie!] The local hospital/clinic complex has a ban weapons sign, which I’ve been complying with (unless I forget, though it’s in circumstances where I have control of it (not going to carry when I’m in for a CAT scan or other happy fun procedures). I’m already on the no-MRI list, so that shouldn’t be a problem.

                      Thanks for the correction.

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            2. I remember Walmart having essentially the same rules posted, and the arrows designating one way aisles, but since so many customers are WalMartians and apparently can’t read, see parking lot lines or follow simple directions, all of that was clearly just ‘guidelines’ that their highly trained personnel were unable to enforce.

              Liked by 1 person

        2. That’s ironic, given what happened here where I live. When the mask mandate was officially relaxed here, I happened to visit the local Trader Joe’s for some items. The customers were all heavily masked, but the employees were all showing their faces.

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          1. I see a lot of masked worker bees among the young women who are doing the Fred Meyer/Kroger shopping service. There seems to be an odd attraction for women in their 20s to medical masks. I can’t tell if it’s fear of the XYZ variant of Covid, or virtue signaling, or yes.

            I also shop an a large independent grocery. Much more down to earth, and the people wearing masks are generally those in poor health. When Oregon had the mask mandates, it was the first place I saw a worker with one of the rhinestone & mesh “masks”. I grinned at that. Too bad TPTB caught on.

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                1. So tight they squish the flab out the waistband? Ewww. Like I’d want to look at that.

                  Why are the ones so afraid of Male Gaze the same ones most men don’t want to look at in the first place?

                  Liked by 1 person

            2. Try to have a little compassion for the worker bees, because (1) their customers probably want them to wear masks (2) wearing a mask makes it easier to control your face, an essential skill when working with demanding and unreasonable people (3) They are worker bees, doing a crummy job to make a living in a bad economy until they can find something better. Also, peer pressure.

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              1. Welp, these are the people who get the groceries that will be picked up. Interaction with customers in the store is very limited, like two shoppers in the same aisle (and they usually keep the big carts in wider aisles).

                I don’t know if they do the bag handover, but that would be a smaller portion of the job. Dunno if the pickup customer wants the handover bee to be masked.

                FWIW, since Covidiocy, the older employees who were doing the pickup shopping have left. It’s now mostly a cohort of early 20s women, with one or two guys, also in their 20s. Mask incidence is maybe 50% for the women. Don’t recall the guys masked up, but sample size skews everything.

                I don’t say a word, and don’t even roll my eyes. Just notice.

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  16. A little tight. *Eyes bills. Takes deep breath.* Well, at least I already got meds for the latest blargh.

    Going to go over what we spend, again, to see if there’s any last bits we can cut or stretch.

    Good news is that meds are rocky but working. Inner ear stuff, yoikes.

    Working well enough that I can finally concentrate on editing again. So… yeah.

    Liked by 1 person

    2. Discovering that the ingredient change in my favorite taqueria blew a big hole in the “where to eat in town” list. Pretty much two places, one too expensive unless I need breakfast in town (ie, after a medical test) or Chinese, which I’d rather not have too often.

      The result was brown bagging. I’m seriously gluten intolerant, so I had to search to find lunch meat that was easy to handle and GF. “Fud” is the brand. Go figure. A sandwich made with that, some cheese, and the barely acceptable Kroger GF bread* means I’ll have fuel for the trip. Not ruling out dessert at Dairy Queen, though. :)

      ((*)) We do a rather better GF bread at home, but $SPOUSE splits a slice a day with Kat-the-dog. I have a no-gluten cinnamon bread some days at breakfast, but buying a loaf for 8 weeks of sandwiches is OK. Both of the homemade breads are best toasted. And the dog loves the bit of toast she gets. Spoiled? Her? Surely you jest. Just don’t let her see you eating bread unless you’re willing to share. :)

      Liked by 1 person

  17. I’ve pretty much suspected the same thing, being on the outside looking in this time. About during the early Obama years, “everybody was hiring” and “people weren’t looking hard enough for a job,” especially as the numbers were “better” than during the Bush2 administration…

    But I knew the company had done layoffs, was doubling up work and requiring managerial approval for any overtime, pay increases were “held off” (and never made up when they started back up again), and the only reason I got the promotion I did was that my manager liked me and the only other person in the office who had seniority didn’t want the job.

    (I did good at it, very proud of that.)

    From the outside, everybody is “hiring”, I’m doing about an interview a week, and I’m lucky to get a physical “sorry, we found someone else” for what I’m interviewing for. Putting in for jobs with every city, county, state, and Federal agency that I can.

    And…nothing.

    I’m trying to get gig jobs, write faster, write more, maybe get something published on a regular basis via Substack…

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Remember, the Federal unemployment figures are based on the number of people reported by the states as having signed up for state unemployment benefits. Which usually last anywhere from a few weeks to a few months.

      Once the benefits run out, you drop off the unemployment roll, and “unemployment goes down.”

      State agency figures, even if they counted everyone signed up to look for a job, would still be extremely unreliable as far as “total of number of people looking for jobs.” In my area, “Workforce Services” does very little to connect employers with potential employees, and it’s almost entirely stoop-labor stuff. If you’re looking for a real job, you’ll be working your friend network and maybe some paid recruiters.

      There’d still be some numerical fuzz from the people who always keep their resume out there to jump ship for somewhere else, and the increasing number of fake job postings, which seem to be mostly means of collecting detailed demographic information to be sold off in nicely validated packages.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. “Workforce Services,” when I used them, weren’t very useful. Most of the jobs they sent me were temp jobs, working at entry-level positions like Walmart or Amazon (Walmart, nope…too many stories of petty abuse and terrible working conditions; Amazon has too many reports of serious injuries because meeting schedule is more important than good labor practices), or similar types of jobs.

        My last three positions that I had are…
        1-Internship turned PT job, then laid off right after Thanksgiving, didn’t last a year,
        2-Job on Indeed that they assured me that I would be trained to fill what I wasn’t able to do otherwise, spent two months doing grunt work and trying to get trained before I was told that “I wasn’t fitting in” and let go without warning,
        3-Current job was through a friend’s startup and I’m having issues with getting paid because his bootstrap model wasn’t working and he’s trying to get bigger investors interested. Might be more money because of Trump’s victory.

        I’m working on a Plan 2 (new job with any government agency), Plan 3 (new job with something that won’t drive me to homicide or suicide), Plan 4 (writing faster and figuring out how to market on a bootstrap), Plan 5 (winning the lottery), Plan 6 (…and then a miracle), Plan 7…

        Like

      2. Oregon unemployment is about six months (or was, been 20 years now). But if the unemployment percentage is high enough then those weeks are extended. If percentage stays high enough long enough, then you can drop on/off unemployment rolls for a month to six weeks a time (how I got through 17 months off 2002 – 2004). My unemployment was a little bit more than what the monthly shortfall was.

        Our problem wasn’t that we weren’t still saving the monthly salary before, it was we were spending my salary, which at that time was higher than hubby’s, even if he worked a lot of overtime. Which because I was working he avoided to do other things like coach and scouts with our son. With the forced transfer north, he wasn’t home, so he worked all the OT he could get. Even with cutting everything we could with now two households (note, one household was our fully paid for travel trailer), we were still short.

        Oregon employment office is as about as useful as you described. The employment agencies are used by employers to hire out of. Even if an employee is head hunted by a company, they still go through the employment agency 6 months to hire. Was starting to see this the last time I looked for work, but it wasn’t wide spread. Ten years later and on, it is the norm.

        Like

      1. I believe it. Sometimes I have to really hunt just to find the requisite three jobs to apply for.

        People who apply for more getting hired sooner! — right, when your skills are in demand, companies will grab you.

        Like

  18. Still reading this, but wanted to dash a comment off first thing on your opening update: The asthma might not be the asthma. The only time in my life I ever used an inhaler was in the aftermath of the walking pneumonia I got in college, for probably a couple of months, with classical asthma symptomology. Never before, and never in the many many years since.

    Get rest and stay on top of it with your meds.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. I’m f*cked. I won’t go into details, because today has been a bitch and one of my cats is sick and going to the vet and there’s no money to pay for any of it.

    But… Himself is in control, and has a certain fondness for me, and for us. So, keep going. And pray.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. I love you Sarah. Lord. He is ok, only $250, some fluids and a few pills. So far so good. If he gets worse I’ll definitely hit you up.

        seriously thanks.

        Like

      1. You know I will.

        He had some fluids and a shot and ate without barfing. If he goes downhill I’ll shout here for sure.

        Thank you from the bottom of my heart all of you.

        Liked by 1 person

  20. It’s important to remember – and remind people – that it took Reagan and Volker two years to get the economy up and running after the 70s stagflation.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. And they had to shock the heck out of it to get it back under control after Jimmeh & Co. – interest rates were highest after RR was elected.

      Liked by 1 person

  21. Of course it’s going to hurt. Can’t kick that national debt can down the road any farther. Inflating it away doesn’t work when the crooks in Congress keep adding debt faster than inflation can kill it; and kills the goose who produces into the bargain.

    Like

  22. Eh, some of lived through Carter, and the rolling train of issues he caused that lasted well past him into Reagan. I’ve been on government cheese before, when the Army paid its officers so little that they qualified for food stamps (and needed them, to feed their families).

    As I tell the baby pilots, I was in aviation when Sep 11th happened. It’s a boom-bust industry, and you ride out the busts doing anything you can to get by. The boom will come again.

    Like

    1. I grew up in the oil patch, and a common bumper sticker seen around said “Please, God, let there be one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it away this time.”

      Like

    2. I grew up in the oil patch, and a common bumper sticker seen around said “Please, God, let there be one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it away this time.”

      Like

    3. Heck. We started out in the Carter years (not kidding when I say “we had to borrow money to be able to go to work”). Dec. ’78 married. ’79 started post college years. Worked 9 months in ’79, 8 months in ’80, 6 months in ’81, hubby worked 6 months in ’82 (and we were lucky he got hired back in ’82, the last one). Sure we knew when we hired on that we’d have 5 – 10 years of < 12 months employment until we moved up the seniority list. Nature of the job. But not this bad. In fact the only reason why hubby got called back was there were 10 or so above him that were pissed they got laid off after 10 years, and didn’t come back (we’ll take it). All in all, over 100 field employees lost their seniority a year later. Hubby worked at the same job, same firm, until 2012, and got layoffs every year. It took 15 years to get off the bottom of the seniority list. When he retired there were 40 to 60 field employees, depending. When we were hired in ’79, there were 279. FYI, ’83 is when I went back to school to change careers (accounting would have been less disruptive than programming, but not near as much fun). We are well aware of the problems the Carter years caused.

      Like

    1. The Reader thinks that while the Austrian School makes more sense than most ‘schools’ of economics it lacks an appreciation of tariffs used as a 2×4 to lack non market players aside the head.

      Like

      1. That’s the thing about economists: they tend to assume the whole system revolves around money. Factoring non-monetary considerations (tariffs used as a tool on the diplomacy-warfare spectrum, for example) into their models is hard, and most don’t bother.

        Like

            1. WP makes a convenient whipping boy (whipping thing? Whatever). The best part is that it’s almost always fully deserved.😉

              Like

  24. Great. I’ve been on a contract for about 2 years now. Keep getting renewed so I guess they like my work. If it doesn’t evaporate I guess I won’t be getting hired on permanently.

    Like

  25. When most folks see bad times coming, and slow spending, cut budgets, and pad the cushion,

    we get downturn to depression.

    When folks see opportunities, and seek them, we get growth to booms.

    The Bull won. Folks were hedging and tightening in anticipation of four more dreary years. Now? Hooboy! Boomtime!

    Yes, may be some drag from lag, things run about six months behind events. But the Trump administration is going to be prosperity focused, and even sabotaged Trumpism is demonstrably growth-ism.

    I just bought a nice car. I waited until election day so it couldn’t help FICUS and Comrade K. But I was confident Trump was the winner, thus we were going to win. So I went big. Also helped I had saved ten years for this, and June was the objective, if the old one hadn’t gone kaput. I rented to get past the election.

    And -thousands- of folks just decided to invest, not hedge. Because get in early for the big win.

    So sure, be prepared, have a cushion, pay off debts. But now is the time to be actioning your investment plan for growth. Even if the DJIA dives 20%, it’s bargain-shopping the dip.

    Small dip. Media blows smoke about “See! 11! Trump depression! 11! Panic!”

    Sentient Sophonts seek growth opportunities and prosper.

    Don’t give the bastards the depression they want by panicking and going box turtle.

    Budget. Plan. Put your money to work. Don’t bury your sheckles.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The most splurging thing I did this year was get a new computer (did get some good deals though) but the old one was about, oh, 14 years old and the cooling system was failing so I kind of had to at some point. It was actually cheaper price than when I bought the old computer back in 2010. I might upgrade the RAM since that’s actually pretty cheap, but still deciding.

      Like

        1. I have an app that measures CPU temperature. On the old one it was about 50+C w/o any games running and 70-80 with them. Current one will stay at around 20 or so and go up a bit when I’m playing Fallout 4 and heavy fog happens in an outdoor cell. (The fans would go crazy on the old one when that happened.)

          Also got some on-sale copies of FO4 and X-COM 2 from GoG. The “no DRM” types since you never know what will happen in the future.

          Though I guess this means I shouldn’t get involved in The First Descendant.

          Like

            1. I did watch Vara Dark play it last July. It did look fun, though it had platforming, which I… dislike. (Though it was hilarious that the chat commenters convinced her to buy the maid outfit for Bunny so her main Descendant was zipping through the battlefields wearing that.)

              There’s also a matter of time. I’m trying to complete an X-COM2 campaign on Legendary difficulty. Keep adding mods. (Not adding the Requiem mods because I like challenge, not masochism.)

              Like

          2. I don’t game, so this is about less muscular computers…

            Both of my main desktop computers (one in the house, the other in the shop/barn) are refurbished business machines (Dell Optiplex). Not game machines, but Fast Enough(tm). 3.2 GHz, 16GB RAM, and 1 or 2 TB drives.

            The home machine is running between 27 and 36C, depending on which core sensors(1) is looking at.

            The shop computer’s drive is making unpleasant noises, so when I get the round tuit, I have a 1TB SSD that’s going in. Winter, the default heater setting keeps things at 38F, so it’s rough on mechanical drives. The old Sony (Y2K vintage) that preceeded the Dell refused to open the CD/DVD drive in winter time, though I’m using very little optical media now.

            I got both machines from Amazon from authorized Dell refurbishers. One (both, I think) came with Win 7, while a small laptop (also refurbed) came with Win 10. All the machines at Thistledog Ranch run Linux, and I haven’t been running the Wine program to get Windows applications.

            I just had to replace the coin cell battery that backs up the clock and such. Opening the case reminded me that dust is an issue. Got an impressive facefull of crud when I powered the machine back up.

            Oh yeah, backups twice a day on one USB hard drive for the home machine, with a monthly safety backup on another one. The shop machine uses a 128G SSD drive; it runs offline and much of its function is the MP3 library. Now it’s my CDs. When time and inclination permits, I plan to rip a bunch of LPs.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. Dell sells refurbished machines directly (https://www.dellrefurbished.com/ ), but the people selling through the ‘zon had better deals. One system came with a servicable monitor, and both came with a keyboard and desk rodent. Dell sells some machines without an OS, otherwise Win something.

              At Dell, machines are running from a few hundred (modulo one rather old one under 100) to $800. In Jan 2020, I paid around $200 for the bare machine, $260 with the monitor.

              Like

            2. I picked up a refurbished 16 GB ‘Dell Optiplex 7050 Micro Form Factor’ from the Zon for $140 a couple of months ago. Since then, the price has varied between $125 and $145. Generic keyboard and rodent included. The computer is about 7″ by 7″ by 1 1/2″ high.

              There is a 512 GB PCIe SSD module on the main board with MS-WIN-BLOWS 10 installed. There was also a vacant SATA connector and drive bracket. I got a 512 GB SATA SSD drive for $30, put it in and installed Linux. Gnome has gone Full Potato on turning your desktop computer into a cell phone, so I installed MATE instead. I found that grub had automagically configured for dual boot, default Linux.

              The fan runs at varying speeds depending on CPU load. Haven’t bothered with CPU temperature monitoring.

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            3. [glances at GKrellM]

              My cores are running 30, 30, 28, and 32C. It’s probably time to take it outside and blow the accumulated dust bunnies out again.

              It’s amazing how much crud is in the air, and how even a coarse filter like the inside of a computer can trap so much of it.

              I’ve learned to take the machine outside and lean waaaay back for the first few hits of canned air, or I’ll wind up looking like Wile E. Coyote.

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    2. The thing is, I want people to be aware it is coming and not be suckerpunched. Because it is coming, as far as the left can make it happen. Which might be a lot or a little. Their power obviously is not what they thought.
      ON THE OTHER HAND under Trump and his team, it should be a relatively brief dip and we will come back roaring.
      Be cautious and prepared, but BE NOT AFRAID.

      Like

  26. You are probably correct about a recession coming soon. Back in 1980, I was working for an economics research and consulting firm. I worked for the chief economist as a “senior research associate”, consultanese for “gofer”. He had developed a fairly simple, but powerful model that could predict macroeconomic data two years in the future. He was a supply sider as were the other partners.

    When Regan won the 1980 election, all of the firms typical clients and fellow supply siders predicted the dawn of the new millennium. The model however predicted the worst recession since the Korean War. The general reaction was “You guys do interesting work, but you are smoking dope.”

    Well, it was pretty much the worst recession since the Korean War. The damage done to the economy due to the inflation, energy policies, and regulatory overkill of the Carter (and even prior) administrations had to be cleared away before the economy could bounce back. Regan’s policies ultimately led to the third longest peace time expansion up to that time.

    Trump may face the same headwinds as he begins his term of office. He and his economic advisors need to be able to articulate clearly the causes and fix blame where it really belongs.

    The model? I left the firm a couple of years later, and it was still holding up. After that, I have no knowledge, but suspect that, as the macro economic regime in the US evolved, the model would have to evolve to maintain any predictive power – or failing that simply become irrelevant.

    Like

    1. RR’s boom was so sustained that Billy Jeff was still able to take credit for it throughout the following decade, and it really only hit major bumps with Y2K bubble burst (which hit Silicon Valley Tech, especially the hardware side where I toiled, a lot worse than the rest of the country) and then ended at the 2008 “The Big Short” crash.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. At the semiconductor side of HP (then Agilent), the Y2K bust coincided with the dot-com bust. Top management was going for moar and better communications ICs, but the market wasn’t ready for such power. (Note that around 2000, Amazon was largely selling books. A well-funded outfit was selling pet toys and food, and crashed. Too early.)

        I’ve heard it said that the Dot-com bubble (Version 1.0) was largely driven by internet pr0n. I have no idea if that was true. You didn’t do much surfing for anything on dialup.

        Like

        1. Y2K and dot com are so coincident as to be conflated into the same thing as far as I my brain is concerned. Y2K itself was just lots and lots of billable hours for COBOL consultants, but it ran all together with the bubble in web company startups that inevitable blew the heck up, and that hit so hard the semiconductor company I was at had many, many device shipments cancelled between loading the boxes on the truck and said truck arriving at customers loading dock for unloading, and stayed really bad a year or more past when I was riffed in early ‘02.

          Liked by 1 person

        2. By 2000 the internet porn sites were big business, making their own product, and using the existing tape/DVD distribution channels as well as the internet. I would guess at least several of them were bigger than Amazon at that time.

          Like

  27. Trump clearly has learned to pick better minions.

    https://archive.is/kxeiq

    He just named his highly successful and much respected campaign manager as White House Chief of Staff.

    She is no nonsense and tough, and seems quite loyal, so likely to support Trump instead of sticking politics in his back.

    A very good sign.

    Liked by 1 person

  28. Our granddaughter had pnemonia, the bad kind, two weeks ago. She’s out of the hospital and back to happy brimming health. I’m still not caught up on sleep, and finding out that Our Dear Hostess was fighting the same illness sent me to my knees in prayer. And my dang floor is hard! Gratitude, all around. Profound, deep gratitude. For health, for family, for friends, for our country.

    Now I’m getting ready to fight, fight, fight. This is not the final battle. At best it is Helm’s Deep, and we still have Gondor to go. But the Light is shining for us. Time to work hard.

    Liked by 1 person

      2. Nah. I keep seeing this floated, but the Dems have nothing to gain from it. It doesn’t stand up to any legal scrutiny, you can’t persuade the public with technicalities, and it requires screaming “WE CHEATED!” at the top of their lungs.

        Infiltration, #Resistance, and whatever lawfare they still think they can get away with. Those are more effective for them and much less costly.

        Like

        1. So it would be a move of epic stupid desperation.

          In other words, some Leftroid is likely to try it. (grin)

          Like

          1. Ha, I wouldn’t rule it out. The mental image I have is some small-time journalist getting up on his soap box to deliver what he thinks is a knockout blow to Trump, only to get dragged down and shushed by his allies.

            Like

  30. re: Sarah’s advice to get credit now. If you’ve never used a credit union, now is the time to get acquainted — better interest rates, and MUCH better customer service. Get a card that doesn’t have rewards, those rewards have to be paid for somehow, and usually it’s a higher interest rate. If you have a moderately good credit score, both of the credit unions I belong to currently have rates of around 16 to 17% for rewards cards, and 12 to 13% for non-rewards cards. That’s a lot better than the rates in the upper 20s that the giant monster mega-banks charge.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Check on them first. I use a credit union which was fine u til they hired an outside marketing firm that decided slogans and logos were much more important than the personal touch with the members. And that having everyone needing to see a manager has to stand at a terminal and fill out a questionnaire before they go into the queue.

      Like

      1. For reasons, I deal with all three credit unions in Flyover County. I really like two of them, but one is a pain. Screwups (when I take money from my savings, it’s a Really Bad Idea to take it from my wife’s) and infuriating customer service. They dropped headcount for the special services (loans, IRA and CD support). I tried to get an appointment for 11/19 last Tuesday, only to be told that the appointment system doesn’t go out that far. Have to go back next week. Otherwise, it’s sit for a couple hours waiting in line.

        Favorite one, I usually can get what I need right away. Had one case where the specialist was working a complicated arrangement, and she asked if I could come back later in the day. That happpened. (That credit union, I can chat with some of the tellers. We’ve known some for years.)

        Middle one, cut back on headcount, but can get somebody to help in a few minutes.

        And yeah, I’m forced to use all three. The lousy one is big in Medford, but opened a branch here in the early Aughts. They just opened another near the hospital. I’m going to try that branch to see if they have somebody with a clue. Screwups like debiting my wife’s savings when I asked to take it from my own are too common. That and they just could not understand that my wife actually had an IRA. Sigh.

        The middle one is regional, around the state (smaller CU merged into them). Our favorite is F-Falls based, and is turning regional.

        Like

    2. -Highly- recommend credit unions. But always do your homework. The risks exist, and are different. But a decent credit union can be a very good deal for the average person.

      I recommend two firms, so a failure or problem doesn’t lock up your whole world. Also provides negotiating leverage.

      Like

    3. Biden said there would be a peaceful transfer of power. If so, he one-ups Trump in some eyes.

      Trump has actually said some sympathetic things about Biden, knowing the sting of betrayal.

      I have a hunch there is already a deal. For example, at 11:30 Biden announces he has pardoned Trump and Hunter, then at 12:30 Trump announces he has pardoned Biden.

      And then one of them tosses the Epstein list into the wild. Because it’s odds-on favorite it guts both DINOs and RINOs.

      Or, Trump uses it as his own personal Ninja, much as J. Edgar Hoover did with his extensive private files.

      This is going to be epic.

      Liked by 1 person

    4. Doesn’t matter what interest rates are if you are paying it off every month.

      However we are running into charges (not by the card) that wipe out kickbacks earned on the card if we use credit. 3% – 3.5% add on charge if using credit (paying the CC fee). Oregon allows that now. Only CC’s, not debit cards paid out of checking. OTOH these places won’t take checks anymore either. Presume the locations in question still take cash alternative. But then I don’t carry that much cash, ever.

      Like

      1. I like the three tiered payment structure that seems fairly common here:

        • Cash is cheapest. Depending on venue, sales tax is optional.
        • Check is next. Sales tax, but no upcharge.
        • Debit/Credit is most expensive. Upcharge for the processing fee.

        I stopped carrying cash in Denver. Both for “I’ve got nothing if mugged” and to be honest when the homeless asked me for money: “I don’t carry cash, these days.” I’m slowly getting used to having cash, again. I mostly use it for tips and put the bill on debit card.

        Like

  31. They still haven’t called Nevada and Arizona! What is taking so long? Are they just that reluctant to drive the last 2 nails in the coffin? :-P

    Now it’s time to depose Vichy Mitchy! Get that traitorous bastard OUT of the Republican leader seat and get in somebody who cares about something more than the perks of the office.

    I propose Marsha Blackburn. Tough, sensible, and takes no shit from nobody. That’s what we need.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. They are trying to sort out the House. That’s become the key, because some (D) think they can get the House to not certify the election. And then … um … yeah. Good question. And intra state politicking.

      Like

      1. Yep, remember the 2020 “wargame” Democrats ran for the case where Trump beat the margin of fraud in that election, with the left coast states threatening to secede if Trump was allowed to become President (never mind that a good part of the country would gladly say adios to the communist people’s republics of California, Oregon and Washington).

        I also suspect that, notwithstanding all the pundits saying “there is no way Merchan can sentence Trump to prison after he won the election”, that Merchan will do exactly that. He will do so before January 6, 2024 and will do so precisely so Democrats can use it as a pretext to not certify Trump, and if certified anyway to move to their next step to prevent Trump from taking office again.

        Liked by 1 person

          1. He is considering a motion by Trump’s lawyers to toss the charges. That does not mean he himself is willing to do so or will grant the motion. Given how many other motions that Trump’s team made that he denied, and how many of their objections at trial he overruled, I doubt very much he will grant the motion to dismiss.

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            1. One positive sign is that he blinked on sentencing earlier in the year. If he was really willing to burn everything down to get Trump, sentencing him before the election would have been the time to do it. Now Trump has a much stronger position, and the other cases against him have collapsed. Merchan is out on a limb by himself.

              Not that him tossing the charges is a sure thing. This is the piece left in play that has me the most worried, just because it could get very messy very fast. But I can see Merchan using the executive privilege argument (IIRC) as a fig leaf to take the easy way out.

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              1. “Merchan is out on a limb by himself.”

                And, he is sawing on the branch limb he is sitting on, next to the tree trunk.

                Like

            2. Merchan has enough baggage (kid’s fundraising for the Ds over the trial) that he should be nervous about an honest DOJ looking closely at his affairs. I think he’s going to drop it.

              Like

                  1. Well, theoretically, they don’t. In practical terms, remember how Mayor Adams didn’t report to the DOJ…. and got charges filed on him???

                    Same energy. And even if she can’t charge the judge, he’s got family and friends….

                    Like

                    1. Oh, there’s no doubt that laws can be broken for political reasons; my comment was regarding legality, not DemRat chicanery.

                      And no, I don’t remember that about Adams vs. the DoJ. Cite?

                      Like

                    2. He went against Bribem’s immigration policies….. and the charges just sort of materialized….

                      https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2024/09/27/payback-against-hizzoner-it-sure-looks-like-it-n2179838

                      New York City’s Democrat Mayor Eric Adams ramped up his criticism of the Biden-Harris regime in 2023 over their porous border and pleaded for help dealing with the waves of illegal immigrants pouring into the Big Apple. “The city is being destroyed by the migrant crisis,” he said pointedly in April ’23.

                      In November of that same year, he was headed to Washington D.C. to meet with members of the administration to discuss the problem, when guess what happened? The home of his chief fund-raiser, Brianna Suggs, was raided by the FBI in a corruption probe. Interesting timing.

                      On Thursday, Adams was formally indicted by the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York for alleged illegal actions stretching back to 2014, from when he was Brooklyn Borough president.

                      No different than Trump.

                      Like

    3. Arizona’s got issues.

      First, based on what I’ve seen (and note that I’m not a resident of Arizona, nor do I play a resident on TV), I am of the opinion that the Republican party apparatus in Arizona is controlled by the former McCain wing (I don’t know who’s calling the shots now, mind you), and that group would rather burn the party down than allow someone who isn’t a member of their clique to take higher office.

      Second, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the Mexican cartels is in control of a good chunk of the state government, and is quietly making sure that outsiders can’t get in (without getting overly violent – yet).

      Liked by 1 person

      2. All of the states Trump won have counted 98% – 99% of the votes, except Alaska. Many of the states Kackling Kamela ‘won’ have not. Kalifornia is still stuck at 58%. Colorado has counted 83%. Others are in the 80s to low 90s. Nevada still hasn’t been ‘called’ for Trump although he’s leading by 48,000 with almost 96% counted. Arizona is still sitting at 76% with Trump ahead by 155,000.

        40 years ago the votes were counted in a day. Has Jimmeh’s Department Of Education left that many incapable of doing simple arithmetic?

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Maybe a few more…. in PA.

          https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/pennsylvania-still-working-on-100000-ballots-as-casey-refuses-to-concede-senate-race-5756516?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=copy

          Pennsylvania officials say there is a minimum of 100,000 ballots left to be processed after The Associated Press projected businessman Dave McCormick unseated Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in one of the most contested Senate races in the country.
          “Throughout the day, the Department has communicated with counties who continue to conduct a secure election where every eligible vote is counted,” Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt said in a Nov. 7 statement on social media platform X. “We estimate there are at least 100,000 ballots remaining to be adjudicated, including provisional, military, overseas, and Election Day votes. We urge patience as election workers continue to do this important work, especially in contests where the margins are very close.”

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            1. I suspect that if that particular debacle shows up again it won’t have the same result as in 2020. Everything is apparently being very carefully scrutinized, especially in close races in “swing states”.

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    4. This morning, DDHQ has the R’s at 216 house, Donks at 204. They’re still predicting 222 for the Rs, with a 90+ percent chance of control.

      I saw something on CTH where Mitch was trying to turn it over to another GOPe. Not sure who, though.

      Liked by 1 person

  32. I saw someone post yesterday that Trump is going to take credit for the great Biden economy—and she was being serious. Mind you, I know that where she lives, she probably doesn’t know people who have been feeling the pain of the last few years, so I’ll give her that. But… yes, I’m fine, my family is fine, but I have tons of friends who have been blasted by the recent economy issues. Job loss, inability to get new jobs, working harder at jobs they have only to find their money isn’t stretching the way it should—it’s not pretty.

    Apparently it’s a “great economy,” though. Oh boy.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. It’s been great for the political class and the privileged elitists. They’re swimming in bribe money and government graft. All those $trillions gotta go somewhere, after all.

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      1. The way I saw that was -28,000 private sector, +40,000 government, for a net +12,000 “jobs”.

        Such a gain in productivity!😒

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    6. I’m making $25k/yr more than I was 5 years ago…and I don’t have more money to save or spend. Just keeping pace is all. There’s not much extra, and I’m making double what I was 6 years ago. I thank my lucky stars almost every day for getting out of the socialist gulag they call the university system; I’d be at the food bank every week on that salary (and miserable every day at work besides). I honestly don’t know how half of America is keeping it together financially at this point.

      Liked by 1 person

  33. Don’t discount also the damage that the current regime is going to do its best to inflict on its way out, both domestically and foreign. Remember how Obama threw Israel under the bus at the U.N. by not vetoing the resolution that declared that Old Jerusalem “the City of David” belonged solely to the Arab-Muslims and must be made Judenrein? The current regime will do something even worse for sure on the way out. It would not shock me if they tried to instigate use of nukes prior to January simply to try to create a pretext to remain in power.

    Domestically, expect them to quadruple down on the socialist give-aways to “friends of the program” on the way out the door, while trying to implement all sorts of poison pills that will need to be undone before Trump’s team can ever make progress to fix stuff.

    Of course everything presumes that the Democrats don’t manipulate vote counts in California and Arizona to steal the House. If they do so, not only will they act as if they are the only part of the Federal government that matters, by obstructing everything Trump does and burying him in endless lawfare, they may even go full “Let’s start a civil war” by refusing to certify Trump’s victory and triggering a constitutional crisis. They are so desperate for power and have proven they will do anything to avoid losing it, an outright coup is not out of the realm of possibility (after all what was all the post 2016 election nonsense but a slow-motion coup).

    I hope I am wrong, but the track record of the left has proven that they are as dumb as they are feckless and ambitious, and are truly blind to the reaction they will trigger (except of course who hope for such a reaction to use it as a pretext to double down on their coup attempt)

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      1. If the Republicans actually keep the House, they need to do a budget bill through reconciliation that includes a provision that cuts off all federal money and assistance to “sanctuary” cities and states.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. To even have a veneer of legitimacy, that would also need to include the “legal weed” states.

          Seems to me that could be handled by a “making things illegal is a police power, hence unconstitutional for the federal government” bill, which would eliminate vast swathes of existing law and regulation. Not going to happen, but it would be a nice breath of 18th and 21st century air, though. Distributed systems are better in so many ways.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Seems to me that could be handled by a “making things illegal is a police power, hence unconstitutional for the federal government” bill, 

            Leftist: “You mean like “illegal” immigration? You just said…”

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            1. Except that dealing with “invasion” (Article 1, Sections 8 and 9, and Article 4, Section 4) is an enumerated Federal power.

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              1. “Invasion? it’s not an army. Unarmed refugees….” THAT’s already been used on Texas.

                The bottom line, as always, is who is willing to act first and has the most to act with.

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                1. But “invasion” is not defined in the Constitution; the current influx of illegals could well qualify. Contrast with “treason” which, despite frequent ignorant posts, is strictly defined, and impossible to convict for except in a declared war (Article 3, Section 3). Of course, “enemies” is also undefined…

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        1. Okay, he had the CA AG billing hours to the taxpayers for the past year preparing for either Brandon or Kammy losing, or I guess Gavin losing if he was dumb enough to let them draft him to run instead of Kammy.

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        2. AG Bonta was already holding a press conference this afternoon here in California.

          He’s one of the most powerful people in the state, but he sounds like a complete wuss when he talks.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Hey, California AG is the stepping stone to first the Senate and then as DEI-hire intersectional VP, so they can run and lose in a landslide.

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            1. True…

              Though first he’d need to do something about Hair Gel… who is TOTALLY not intending to run for president in the next election. Swearsies! Pinkie Promise!

              Liked by 1 person

    3. A significant fraction of the Swamp don’t really care who runs the Swamp as long as the checks clear. They ride out the occasional “reformer”.

      Until Trump fires up a chainsaw, the Swamp will go along as needed and Swamp as able.

      Trump may have some legal difficulty firing them, but he absolutely can order the Treasury to stoo cutting checks to them. And I doubt 5% will work for free, more than a week or two.

      Just as the allocation belongs to Congress, the actual spending is Executive, a deliberate split.

      And I suspect Mr Trump has found several rules that let him … prod … those who annoy him.

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      1. “Just as the allocation belongs to Congress, the actual spending is Executive, a deliberate split.”

        Remember the Nixon impoundment case? SCOTUS said that if Congress says spend it, the President cannot refuse. They might overturn it now, but until they do, you’re wrong.

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    4. I’m leaning no on the coup. I don’t think the will is there this time. “Trump is Hitler” carries a lot less weight than it used to, and a good chunk of their base knows in their hindbrain that (1) Kamala was a bad candidate, and it’s the Dems’ fault, and (2) four years under Trump wasn’t the end of the world. That’s not a solid foundation for a naked power play.

      We’ll get other shenanigans for sure, but I don’t see them being as effective this time around. Trump is ready, and we’re already seeing signs of capitulation, like the DOJ investigations falling apart and some of Trump’s enemies cozying up to him. Fingers crossed that they can’t to do too much damage under the circumstances.

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      1. I expect tantrums, its their nature. But Trump gets sworn in in January. You can bet on -petty- sabotage and the usual last minute favor-granting by Mr. Outgoing. There may be a small scandal over massive pardons of Swamplords. Or, FICUS may just stiff them all as payback.

        Biden is the wildcard. The Donks -cannot- afford a major debacle. They cannot afford a 25thA action. But Biden may provoke them, or genuinely go bat-guano. So who knows?

        Thus “popcorn”.

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        1. The 25th is a non-starter. Even if invoked, if disputed by Biden it takes a 2/3 majority of both houses to enforce, and that just ain’t happenin’, the Repubs are still too smart for that. Biden’s in to the end, unless he has an “accident”.

          Liked by 1 person

  36. I’m wondering how much of Utah Biden will turn into a national monument before he leaves. The last two outgoing Dems have done that.

    Liked by 1 person

  37. The collapse is already happening and has been building since the crisis of 2007-2008. Rather than deal with that decisively, Bush and, later, Obama papered over it. No doubt there were modern economists telling them the government could get away with it forever. Which it can’t.

    Now the cycle has turned and the market is already responding as if we will have climbing interest rates. If it is a new cycle (I think it is) it will last 10- 20 years or more. We cannot avoid the downside – to many companies are over- leveraged for rising interest rates and Biden/Harris baked too much in deficits and inflation into their last budget — so the proof of Trump’s mettle will be how well he handles the downturn. If he and his team are as good as I hope the recovery will be obvious by the midterms.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The government has been fudging the economic numbers since they started publishing them. Any real plyer in the market knows it, and has alternate measures and compensating factors.

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  38. OT and grim, “migrant gangs,” in Amsterdam are out hunting Israelis. This is related to an Israeli soccer team’s visit and game with a Dutch team. Number of injured (so far) either 10 or 12. Footage of men breaking into a hotel to search for Israelis.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Footage I saw tonight was taken by the attackers.

      Cellphone cameras everwhere, even in the hands of the barbarian hordes rampaging through the streets of European cities. The collapse of civilization won’t be televised, it’ll be streamed.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I think Jews all over the world are used to being ware by now. They’ve had, what, 4,000 years of practice? This is just more of the same. Civilization seems to be wearing thinner in Europe these days.

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  39. Pingback: Where to start,,,, | Dio's Workshop

  40. It occurs to me that perhaps we should thank the Biden interregnum. That Trump’s time in the wilderness has cauterized his … dare I say, “naivete?” and allowed him to learn some valuable lessons about political warfare with the Left as the enemy. Personnel is policy, right? And with freedom-dedicated folk such as Musk and Gabbard and — yes — even Kennedy, and a Republican Senate (for confirmations), one might hope things might go more smoothly second time around.

    We can hope.

    Liked by 1 person

  41. they never really fixed anything after 08, just a lot of can kicking, the animosity of the DC elites is so thick you can taste it, how dare these ignorant little people defy us!

    you can bet they have some painful wacks planned to put the plebes back in their station

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  42. We’re still dealing with the hangover from the Covid lockdown, too. The Dems are going to shriek and fling their poo and call it the Trump Depression. You’ll hear that constantly on the MSM. Electing Trump by itself will not bring paradise on Earth, or fix the deep divide in this country. We’ve bought four years. What we do with that, remains to be seen. The chance of civil war in the next ten years remains uncomfortably high.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. If he does as Ronaldus Maximus did, and tells everyone “the next two years will be rough, then improve,” that will go a long way to assuring folks that there is hope and that good economic times will return. Especially if he keeps communicating what he’s doing and why, when possible.

      Liked by 1 person

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