I’ve Seen The Future Baby, It Is Murder

Since I’ve realized how much publishing has changed and decided I need to try something different, I’ve been realizing how much and how fast things are changing all around us and I’m no longer surprised at the economic turmoil the world is in – I’m only surprised it’s not worse.

We will steer away from the political implications of this and – for now. I’ll probably do a post on it for Classical Values later – because they feed into and are fed by this (of course) and concentrate on what is going on with various career and professions.

First let me share a nightmare I had when I was a teen, of driving down this road, and the car stops responding to the pedals and when I try twisting the wheel, it comes off in my hand and the car just speeds on, faster and more out of control until I wake up screaming.

Turned out it would be a an omen about my publishing career so far. Okay, joking, though there’s a grain of truth in it.

That nightmare has come back as an image that plays itself in my mind when I hear of another fast-change that people don’t seem to negotiate so well.

Change always happened. I mentioned the secretarial field, but that change was relatively slow. I was talking to a friend the other day who told me her father in law – in his nineties – and his cronies lament the disappearance of “a good secretary.” They do this because the tech of their lifetime has informed their view of the world. I don’t know how many of you ever used a typewriter particularly for a long and/or complex document, but doing so is boring, slow and near-mindless work. You train yourself to let your fingers take the flow of work – eyes, fingers. And if you’re not a robot – and few people are – you then go back with white out and cover up all mistakes and type over them. This made typing demanding, boring and low status.

These gentlemen retain the low-status idea, and therefore will not type their own documents, even if they could.

This type of idea slowed change at first. Not just in secretarial – I worked as one in the early nineties, and yes, taking dictation was part of my duties – but in all other fields, including writing, the first defense is “but we’ve always done it this way.” And “but it’s not prestigious.” Even now, I’m still facing enquiries from people I mentor and other beginners about how to get traditionally published because “it’s more prestigious.”

That’s how humans work. We’re apes, guys. We have our status markers and our distinctions, so everyone in the band knows how great we are and gives us status-preference.

So status-seeking and tradition slowed things up for secretarial transition, but they don’t seem to be holding as strongly in other fields. (In music and books this might be complicated by the fact that the industries were trying their hardest to commit suicide when technology did the equivalent of people at the foot of the bridge and started shouting “Jump, jump, jump.”)

But I’m starting to see the signs everywhere of the sort of slow domino pile-up we’ve seen in writing for five years (Kris Rusch says ten, and she might be right, but if I came in at the beginning, I only noticed it halfway through – which makes sense.)

For instance, I took the kid to register for his senior year in highschool, and had a strong feeling this too shall pass away – and soon – particularly for those who can afford it. (It will linger, I think, much longer, as a warehousing system.) This is fed of course, by my having home schooled the same kid 4 years ago and having found that I actually needed to do very little of the teaching. Even though we didn’t join the local home schooling league because the situation was temporary and designed to work with some issues he was having, I could avail myself of online classes, recorded lectures and a lot of other “help.”

After a while the kid started picking those and pulling rather than being pushed, till the hardest thing was to test him.

Well, as “advanced” as the field seemed to me when I wadded in, it was actually primitive compared to now, where there are a lot more schools, classes and even testing services. But, more than that, it is amazing how much of this is being integrated into regular public school and college. My kids will often do tests from home (on the weekend, which my husband finds an abomination against youth.) There will be units that are put online, rather than taught in school. And, of course, preliminary reading, at least to find sources, is always done on line.

I don’t need to mention travel agents, right? An acquaintance of mine was training ten years ago to be a travel agent, on the idea that it would provide for her the rest of her life…

Phone books. We still get them, every year. They get dropped on our front porch. I confess they retained some use for us even after we were looking up phone numbers on line – we used to take them in the car with us, so if we were out, we could quickly look up the address of a restaurant or store. Uh… now we have GPS (or as we call it around here, the recalculator.) How many people worked on or for phone books?

Stores… Well, book stores are hurting. I don’t know a lot about the others, but I wonder how much competition online shopping is providing. I know for a fact that Christmas season is nowhere near as crazy in terms of parking and local shopping, and hasn’t been since well before the economic crisis.

And I’m making a prediction right now – remember this is hard, particularly about the future, so there’s a good chance I’ll be wrong – that in two/three years those of us/you whose jobs lend themselves to it will be mostly working from home, with maybe a day or two at the office a week. It’s also possible – I’m seeing this in computers – most people will be “piece-jobbers.” I.e. that most people will be working as loosely attached short term contractors or free lancers for many different companies. What will make up a “full time” job will actually be a patchwork of single-short, by the job payments.

Of course there are businesses that don’t lend themselves to this. Long distance trucking, for instance – not unless tech really moves fast and comes up with an automated way to do this. And I suspect farmers will always have to have contact with dirt and animals. But most of our jobs will come to work like this, perhaps even manufacturing.

This has always happened. It will always happen. It’s just it’s coming REALLY fast, and it’s affecting people in all age ranges, from beginners to long-established. It’s a great leveller, in a way.

And it’s not that most people are losing their status symbols. Most people are losing their security: pensions, retirement, salary. And most people don’t like that.

If I had a dime for everytime I’ve heard this week “I don’t know how I’ll make money in the future” or “I don’t know how I’ll survive the next year” in the last week, I’d have close on two dollars, and only one of these people was side-related to publishing (journalism.)

If I’m hearing this other people are. And I’m not making light of those fears. I have some of them myself.

So, I’m going to share with you what I feel will be the right way to survive, no matter how tech is tossing your field (and mind you, this is a gut feel. I’ve found my gut is usually ahead of my brain. Probably relating to relative size.) Also, I’m practicing futurism without a crystal ball, so beware.

I’d recommend the following:

1 – try to get ahead of the change. Antecipate where it will move next, and try to be there before it hits. (I.e. anticipate that traditional publishing might become a legal/financial liability in the next year, and have some work that doesn’t depend on them, so all your books don’t vanish when a house or two collapse.) But keep a foot in the old ways of doing business, as long as viable, to ease the transition financially and to edge bets if you’re wrong.

2 – brainstorm. This works best in a group, of course, but try to figure out ways your business is going and what the way to make money will be near and long term. It helps to read blogs of people in your business, and to read between the lines.

3 – Diversify. If you think there’s a chance in heck that the field you trained in can still feed you, diversify within it. I don’t need to tell anyone I write in three different fields, (at least) and am not afraid to write in more, right? If you’re not sure, see if one of your hobbies will clean up as a part-time job alongside the first.

4 – Work harder than ever before. Well, you’ll have to, to start the new way of doing things while keeping a foot in the old. But this is also a good thing. Busy people rarely have the time to panic. And you’ll feel like you’re taking charge and controlling your fate to some extent.

5 – If you’re a student, think about how your training will translate to a future of telecommuting and contracting. Some can’t be and this might be a good thing at least short term. (More on that later.) For instance, the kid who wants to be a surgeon is probably somewhat safe.

6 – If you’re just starting out, try to come up with better ways of breaking in. So no one will give you a job because the industry you were aiming for is dying or convulsing. Think in terms of creating a job.

7- Think about moving. We can’t yet. Tied by my husband’s job. But if telecommuting becomes standard, you’re going to be competing across the world. Talk about the ultimate outsourcing. A lot of us are already doing that to an extent. BUT more importantly, you’re going to be competing across the nation. Dare I point out that prices in NYC are not the same as in Hays, Kansas. Yes, NYC offers other things too, in living close to “the center of everything” as a cousin of mine put it. BUT beyond that, and besides that, a lot of other cities, medium to small to all sizes in between that are not NYC don’t offer that kind of advantage. What they offer – offered – till relatively recently was being near possible jobs. As that changes, their real estate will suffer more than the real estate nearby, in cheaper locations.

I’m not saying you CAN move yet, but start considering it. Start considering your move. Start browsing realtor.com in your spare time.

I’m telling you right now there will be vast movements of people, and being ahead will mean you’ll lose less money, and perhaps even make some. I don’t know your requirements. And I’m not saying you should go to the countryside. Myself, I’m a city girl and view “telecommuting job. Must move to neighborhood where I can walk to everything” as heaven. And there are cities which got whacked enough with the price drop stick they might be very reasonable – depending on where you are and what your equity is. But… start thinking about it, so you’re ready to jump.

8 – Create a network of people in your field and related fields. As a writer, I’m starting to make contacts with artists, proof readers and such.

9 – if you’re thinking of doing a jump, and your future endeavor will be contractor (say, from employed editor to copyeditor/free lance editor) give your future company a name. Get a DBA. (Or incorporate.) Give it a web page. Some people will find you that way. It will also make it easier for people to link and recommend. (Hint, though, if you’re a free lancer working with writers, put some prices for basic services up on the page. I have this way of going “if it’s not there I can’t afford it.” And heaven knows I’m often wrong, but there it is. If I’m considering a job as “up in the air” I don’t want to enquire. You’ll email me forever. So just put prices up there. Better chance of getting work. For artists and such I’d put something like “rights to my stock” and “For commissioning prices start at x, contact for more details.”)

10 – Don’t panic. (Get a towel if needed.)

And feel free to share any advice/ideas you have, that I didn’t cover. This is by no means an exhaustive list.  I’m as scared as everyone else and trying to get hold of the situation.