This is a compilation of how the ebook front looks to me at the moment. Things might look completely different to the next person over, particularly if the next person over knows more about publishing than I do (which isn’t as easy as it used to be, but is also not impossible.) I thought it might interest those of you who are on the outside or not professionally involved in the field.
First let me tell you that a lot of the stuff you hear about ebooks and how everyone is reading ebooks is just pie in the sky. It is talk that is familiar to me – and has been for a while – because ebooks have been talked about in every possible venue (and some impossible ones) for the about twenty years I’ve been paying attention to the market.
Long before I sold my very first short story – heck, long before I sent it out – I was attending conferences in which some minor agent or editor solemnly informed us that the coming thing was ebooks and it would upend all of publishing. Or else that the coming thing was novels with active content.
It went on for so long, in fact, that everyone – this included, I think, most of the NY publishing establishment – gave up on it and decided ebooks were a lie. I started hearing theories on why they’d never come: book readers are inherently more conservative than game players; books on paper are a sensuous experience – etc.
Of course now things are different. Now we have Amanda Hocking and such, surprise bestsellers created by epublishing.
But are things different? Really? There have always been “self published bestsellers”, what we used to call “books from the back of the van.” Look up The Celestine Prophecy. Twelve years ago I attended the Pikes Peak Writers conference and – as an unpublished author – was told my best shot was to publish my own book, “with a nice cover” and then send it that way to the publishers, who were then more likely to buy it. “Particularly if you’ve hand-sold 500 copies or so yourself.” Was this true? I don’t know. Just as I don’t know if Dean Wesley Smith’s advice that I do a POD of a book, then send it to editors with a specific letter on what rights I’m willing to sell would work. It might. Or it might not. It SHOULD. But… are we there yet?
Gut feeling? No. We’re not there yet. I think we’ll be. I do think there’s a future for writing and for writers. Whether there will be a lost generation first, that’s something I can’t answer. I will give, though, as a shred of hope, the fact that this whole thing is moving much faster than I expected. OTOH keep in mind it’s moving much slower than industry insiders expected twenty years ago.
So, here’s a snapshot of the battle as I see it right now. Remember, in a large battle all a foot soldier can see is the area around herself. Over a few dozen feet it might be completely different.
Here’s what I see – through the email lists I belong to, through reading articles and gleaning numbers from whispered comments – most writers aren’t making a living from their own ebooks yet. In fact, all the way from high mid list to raw beginner, the numbers are startlingly consistent and run in the mid hundreds at best – or about 10% even the suckiest publisher printrun.
This is for fiction and specifically for genre fiction. It’s entirely possible that it’s completely different for non fiction and how to books. I wouldn’t know.
It’s possible the reason for this is that – by publisher choice of what to publish – genre readership has been graying. They are now at best late middle age, a time when people don’t adopt technology very fast. But the graying of the readership was a problem before ebooks, and one we’ll have to contend with anyway.
The fact that romance is the one genre bucking this trend – they sell much better in ebooks, sometimes amazingly well – would indicate this hypothesis is correct, as romance has the least gray readership.
However, these numbers, small though they are, have the industry in a tailspin. How much they’d have been in a tailspin anyway, and are simply using this to cover up their issues, I don’t know. The industry is opaque, autocratic and as I’ve mentioned elsewhere not only cut itself off from market signals, but considered this cutting off a good thing. (Economics, they iz doing it wrong.)
I’ll note in passing that Baen is having a banner year, despite some glitches with their conference, and despite the fact their ebooks aren’t available on Amazon. They do, otoh, try to stay in touch with their audience and publish what the readers want.
So for the midlister like myself the choice is scant. On the one hand the publishing industry which gave us ulcers seems to be imploding. Yay. OTOH it is no longer providing the contracts it once did and which kept us alive at least at a subsistence level. Uh Oh. On the one hand various things coming out seem to indicate that our readership really was always larger than they said. Yay. OTOH that readership doesn’t seem to be present in ebooks. The dame or the tiger. Choose, but choose now.
I’m not quite in that boat. For one I work for Baen (Yay) for another I’ve got contracts between Baen and other companies to be very busy for another year and a half (Yay) at almost my normal income (Yay.) On the other hand, a book turned in to a company not Baen three months ago has yet to be accepted/scheduled, and I have no clue what is going on since the editor is not answering me. (Uh Oh.) And payments seem to come later and later (very uh oh, and the reason – watch this space – there will be a “subscribe to Sarah” program.)
But I’m still in that boat, as I look further ahead. I have no reason to believe my relationship with Baen won’t continue. However, as per Laurell K. Hamilton (thanks Laurell) one shouldn’t work for a single publisher. Security and sanity demand spreading out the risk. Also, to be blunt, I write mystery too and the sort of dark fantasy Baen is not a good outlet for.
So, the Titanic is sinking, but I’m floating atop the grand piano.
It is my belief that as books collapse more – and they seem to be – ebooks can’t help but rise. Market abhors a vaccum. (Except Dyson.)
Because of economies of scale, I see no reason that ebooks can’t support writers. As more people self-publish it will become obvious it is NOT as widespread an ability as most people think (look at most slush piles) and also that more people are willing to read more, if their tastes – not the distributors – are catered to. It’s an underserved market.
But writers might need to write more – which I can probably do, once I’m past this tight spot of contracted books and books I really want to do for Baen and that I’m fairly sure Toni will take. I mean, I can write six books a year. Have done it. And I suspect Baen can’t take all of them, not unless this next book sells beyond all expectations and not unless Toni takes an interest in mystery or vampires (and not just to set them on fire, as per Larry Correia, though his methods are great too.)
I think writing will become as it once was, in the hallowed days of pulp. The book itself doesn’t make much money, but it stays in print forever and once you have a back list it will feed you comfortably.
Will it become that in time for me to have a healthy career? Who knows. All I know I that the field as it existed has exploded. You can’t put humpty dumpty together again.
All births are messy. All births involve blood and pain and the possibility of death for both parent and child. The solution, though, is not to try to keep the child in the womb till college (which is what some of the main stream presses seem to be betting on.) Once labor starts it has to progress. And once a baby is in there, it will have to come out (a realization that gave me the horrors five months into my first pregnancy.)
So I see nothing for it but put my shoulder under the load and heave up. Even if I’m afraid to end up as the Fallen Caryatid.
In the end it helps to remember that publishing wasn’t pushed. It threw itself down the cliff. And it is only the appearance of ebooks that allows most writers today to have hope of making a decent living someday.
According To Hoyt 
Well…. I’m not sure what you mean by “hundreds”, but here’s what I do know.
For an established mid-list writer, if you have books that have reverted, if you have books that are currently not in print, you are an absolute flat freaking idiot if you do not have them up on the Kindle store, on Barnes and Noble and on iBooks.
There is absolutely no excuse not to have that done. Covers are easy, conversion to ebook format is easy, and pricing is straightforward. The same applies to any shorts you have out there that have reverted, or which you didn’t sell “all rights” to. You should place them both as collections, and as individual shorts. No, no, sales at $1.99 each for individual shorts won’t make you rich, but it will pay for the next bag of rice and beans.
And, it means that your books are IN THE FORUM. They’re out there to be seen and commented on and bought. And with Amazon in particular, that’s the magic key. To have the wondrous “Customers who have bought this book also bought these others I’m listing here.” happens automagically on Amazon as soon as you sell -some-.
So, the other part is paying your dues, as Sarah does, using social media. Otherwise, how do you get those first critical sales? You have to tweet and blog and facebook them.
And if you absolutely don’t have time, and you absolutely can’t figure out how to list your stuff at Amazon and at BN, then contact me and I’ll either do a tutorial with you on line, or I’ll negotiate a rate we can agree to for converting your manuscripts FOR you.
But don’t, under any circumstances fall for the idea that you need an agent or a “dealer” for Kindle and BN. Pay a (small) flat fee or do it yourself and then list the ebooks yourself on the kindle and bn store and get 100% of the income, don’t split it with anyone else.
How well does this work? One author I work with has put up a singe anthology of reverted stories, and then listed each of the stories individually, and that is bringing in a little over $100 a month net. Up front cost was under $50 for the conversion. It’s not “make the rent” money, but it’s certainly “the next bag of rice and beans.” More content, more money.
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Rick, mostly I have shorts that have reverted, and yep, I’m putting them up (via Naked reader, because it’s a fair deal and takes work off my back and frankly it’s so small it’s as close to a co-op as we can go) as fast as I can go over them (Needless to say some of them are fifteen years old, and I need to polish them). My reverted books are up with Baen for a packet-publication. I MUST get the rights to the rest of the musketeers back. TECHNICALLY they’ve reverted, by contract/numbers, but the house says they haven’t (rolls eyes.) Um… yeah, by hundreds I meant NOT Amanda Hocking numbers 100 a month or so at best. For me and people like me who write fast and have TONS of things, that can add up to a steady/nice income. For writers who do a book a year and maybe a couple of short stories, it could take a while. I hadn’t thought of listing the stories individually as well. And I have novels almost finished that I need a couple of weekends to get finished and up. Non-Baen type novels, though one of them is borderline and I’ll have to run it by Toni first, natch. But yeah, what I meant is say 50 pieces of writing out there, at $100 each a month… well…
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Rick,
I’m not sure I’m following who or what you’re responding to. Was there a comment that’s been erased? If not, you’re sort of preaching to the choir where Sarah’s concerned.
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Amanda, I’m responding in part to the piece where Sarah says:
> In fact, all the way from high mid list to raw beginner,
> the numbers are startlingly consistent and run in the
> mid hundreds at best – or about 10% even the
> suckiest publisher printrun.
To which I reply with the argument that for a mid-lister or for even a relative newcomer with any back list at all, a hundred sales a quarter amounts to $140 a quarter net for a $1,99 short story or novella.
If you have ten such, that’s $5200 a year net, which buys a lot of rice and beans.
and the suckiest publisher print run goes out of print after six months, and then its over. The long tail stays in print forever.
The other thing that I have a slight argument with Sarah over is that the landscape has changed in the last 18 months. Two years ago, Sarah placing her novel backlist at webscriptions made perfect sense. On the other hand, if Baen’s contracts state that webscriptions is an EXCLUSIVE mechanism for distribution of the novels that Sarah has for packet-publishing, and if Baen doesn’t figure out how to get their stuff up on the kindle store pretty damned soon, then it’s worth PULLING them and putting them on the kindle store. I truly think that Sarah is brilliant for putting Crawling between Heaven and Earth in the Free Library. But I also think it should be on the Kindle store for $4.99 and that each of the stories in it should be on the kindle store for $1.99 or $0.99. Why cut off your own foot?
Webscriptions is abso-freaking-lutely great, but the reality is that if you’re not on the Kindle store then Kindle users can’t find you by accident. If you’re not on the BN store, nook users can’t find you by accident. If you’re not in iBookstore, then iPad users can’t find you by accident.
Sure, people who know can go get your stuff, but it’s those accidental referrals, those “People who bought this also bought” things that are priceless.
I make no argument with Sarah about Naked Reader. I don’t know how that coop works. But I know this. If I were her, I would take the old stories, toss them up -now- and then as she has time, fix them and replace the old versions with the edited ones. Why avoid the income?
I also know that in the case of the mid-list authors with whom I have worked, as silly as it sounds, they are making more (a pitance, but still more) off of the sum of the stories in an anthology than off digital sales of the anthology itself. _AND_ it means that they have more titles in the kindle store to be linked to and from and be reviewed and be searched on.
More is better, just like in the bookstore, having ONE title is good having 18 inches of titles is better.
Visibility matters.
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Mr Boatright,
You, sir, are utterly failing to make your argument, such as it is, because you are behaving like a pompous ass. You are also materially incorrect.
I have seen your “work” on Dave Freer and Eric Flint’s stories. I initially thought they were software textbooks. I’m sure it’s only coincidence that the cover style you chose for them is exactly like the O’Reilly “Learning…” software texts (such as the sample of covers here. What’s more, the amateurish layout of the sample is quite enough to deter me from actually paying for anything with that brand of cover. A fine advertisement for your talents, indeed.
In addition, you seem to have completely missed that Sarah is working to put her backlist online. Posting long lectures because she happens to disagree with you – and longer rebuttals when you are corrected – is hardly going to help your cause.
Of course, I don’t expect you to agree with me. That would be entirely too much, based on the behavior you have displayed so far.
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Rick,
it’s not an exclusive contract. I don’t want to pull it. It’s also my Shakespeare series, with which I have a … problematic relationship. On Crawling — I think Amazon rules preclude that.
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Rick, whoever hit your hot button — and if it was me, sorry — they hit it. Look, you are preaching to the choir when you say all this to Sarah. But you are overlooking one thing as well. Sarah has a loyalty to Baen and may not want to pull her backlist titles from them. Not only is it a matter of loyalty, it’s also a matter of not doing anything that might piss off her editor. As for Baen getting up on Amazon, Toni’s said they are trying to slog through the negotiations. That’s got to be given time. But I do agree with you about Baen needing to be there. Fortunately, for the moment at least, there are enough Baen fans that when someone asks on the kindle forum boards about the absence of Baen books, they are quickly pointed to webscirptions. Frankly, on a personal note, I’d much rather see the fiasco of the Bar fixed posthaste now, before the community is allowed to wither and die.
I also agree with you about getting titles up on Amazon. But that does take time, especially if a writer is trying to, well, write at the same time. It also takes time to promote those titles. It really doesn’t matter if you have one or a dozen titles up there if no one knows they are there. THAT is the real issue facing new authors and mid-listers when placing their titles up on their own. At least the mid-lister has an audience who might go searching for the author’s name and stagger across the newly released titles. The new author doesn’t.
I will take exception with your suggestion that any author toss of old work now and go back in as time allows and clean them up. For one thing, an author’s style and ability changes over the years and putting up something written fifteen years ago and that isn’t the edited version (the printed version) could prove disastrous. For another, well, I happen to know Sarah is a word perfect sort of girl and that the old wp programs add a hole new level of problems into the conversion process.
On the whole, we do agree that she needs to get her titles up. Every author with a backlist does. We just disagree on some of the details of it. I believe you are much better off putting out a polished version first instead of putting up something that isn’t polished and might turn off your readers — and have them negatively reviewing the title simply because it isn’t as polished a piece of writing as they have come to expect. I also believe you need to have distinctive covers for each title out there, even if they are short stories from a collection. It is amazing the amount of negative word of mouth bad or boring covers will generate on the boards — just as they do for printed books. I believe e-books need to go up on B&N, Amazon and Smashwords (and I let Smashwords put them elsewhere), but that means three different formats of submission with Smashwords being the least consistent in acceptance due to their meatgrinder program. Toss in the fans who will have “helpful” suggestions about how to change the formatting of what you’ve put up and who expect personal responses and, well, it really can become a time consuming process, one a lot of authors simply don’t have the time to do on their own. Not if they are to meet their contractual deadlines. Hence the need for agreements like the ones Sarah has with Baen and NRP.
Sorry, it’s early and I haven’t drunk nearly enough coffee. But take this for what it is. We agree — as does, I believe, Sarah — on the big picture. It’s in the details where we have some disagreements.
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Amanda,
Clearly, I shouldn’t post to boards at midnight after long days. Oh well, not the first time I’ve failed to actually communicate what I thought I was saying.
I did not mean to suggest that Sarah was doing much if anything wrong. She’s been right there slugging since day one. Nore did I intend to suggest that pre-copy-editing drafts should be posted. Ick. It does look like I said that. Sorry. And as to her relationship with Baen, the LAST thing to do is get in the way of that. I clearly communicated poorly. I see that now. Once again, waiting would have been good.
To the extent my button got pushed it was pushed by others I’ve recently spent time talking to who had me primed for another screed on the subject of e-publishing.
If, as Kate said, I’ve presented myself as an ass, then it isn’t the first time, and doubtless won’t be the last.
If Sarah wishes to simply delete those posts, it won’t hurt my feelings. Meanwhile, I’ll post another sticky to remind myself to wait before dumping on line.
Now, where did I lay my self respect? I knew I left it laying around here somewhere.
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Rick, I certainly understand how dealing with those who don’t have a clue — or who refuse to recognize what’s right before their eyes — can have you all primed to go off, with or without reason. We’ve all done it. Just as we’ve all hit that send button before we should have (something I probably did this morning. As I said then, I am not a morning person and I responded to you before my first cup of coffee was finished.)
I’ll also admit that misinformation or poorly communicated information about ebooks rattles my cage since it is my business. I spend a lot of time making sure the ebooks NRP puts out are of the best quality we can make them. It’s an evolving process, but one with a number of steps involved, both pre and post production. Which is why I tend to shake my head when folks say how quick and easy it is to put an ebook up. It is, but quality can — and often does — suffer.
Oops, sorry. This is my pet soapbox. I’ll climb down now with just one more comment. No harm and no foul, as far as I’m concerned. I have known you from the Bar long enough to hope we were just hitting one another on a bad day. Glad I was right.
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Kate,
If I’m coming off as a pompous ass when I was trying to be nice, then I really suck a lot more at this writing thing than I thought I did. I apologize if I offended you, that wasn’t the intent.
I certainly wasn’t trying to argue with Sarah. I -like- Sarah, and she’s one of the most clued in authors I know in the community. I was hoping to clarify one teeny tiny thing. I tend to be long-winded and again, I apologize for that. I thought what I was doing was vehemently agreeing with her. More of that bad writing on my part.
As to the O’Reilly style covers, what can I say, Flint and Freer thought they were funny, and I’m no artist. I’m certainly not advertising a service. I don’t have TIME to do much more of that.
I’ll go away now.
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Rick,
Apology accepted. It’s way too easy to misrepresent yourself online, and if your judgment is impaired in any way – like, say, it being somewhere after midnight and you’ve been up since oh god am – it’s super easy to get tangled up. I’m certainly not going to claim I’ve never done it (there are deep dark corners of the web littered with my abject apologies).
If Flint and Freer like the covers, I won’t say anything more on the topic. It’s their decision, not mine.
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