It is time once more to talk about how things go down the tubes. How the proverbial excrement hits the proverbial rotating object. How the center cannot hold.
There are two proximate reasons for it. The first is that my husband, the apolitical one, as we’re considering a new-to-us car was tying himself in knots about a car that could be adapted to run on fuels of convenience, like fry-oil, say. When I realized this was his source of confusion, I got confused. “Do you have some reason to expect a meteor to hit the Earth? Or–“
“No, no. But if they fraud their way in the way they’re going–“
I had to laugh. You see, I’ve lived through a collapse. It never hit bottom, and it turned around very vast after 78/79, but it hit low enough particularly where most people I knew lived. And it wasn’t remotely like that.
Granted it was a peculiar collapse as we started at the national-socialist “very poor” but the gears used to grind us are the same being applied now: raging inflation and encouragement of crime and criminals and disorder in general. Two more we’re also suffering from, in our case deliberately, were not deliberate then, I think (Though they might have been. And they might not be exactly deliberate now, just a manifestation of their rats in head): the oil crisis of the seventies, which I presume was the same thing as all over the world. I’d say that couldn’t be deliberate for international communists, but when you consider the only thing that Russia makes money on internationally… well. The other being inflicted on us I’m almost sure was accidental in Portugal: the dumping into the country of a very large, un-digestable or un-digestible quickly population. I think it was accidental in Portugal because the left being massive racists worldwide and bizarre dreamers besides, probably anticipated that white people would abandon the African colonies they handed over to Russia and its Cuban mercenaries, BUT they couldn’t imagine that black people, and barely acculturated to the 20th century tribal people from Africa would also leave and come to Portugal by all means possible and some that still seem impossible in retrospect, in a massive sauve qui peut.
You see, the left tends to assume that people who tan are natural communists and will embrace their regime with joy, forgetting that even among the non-literate ones, there is a lot of rumor and talk, and the millions of people who tan the left has killed around the world whose relatives and friends talked.
Anyway, I’ve lived with the same gears grinding a society and the same kind of lunatics in power. Now it was a smaller country, which is good and bad. It will have some effect but what effect it has is difficult to quantify. I’d say the greater ease — qualified by the fact the country didn’t have even A highway system of any kind — of transporting goods is nullified by the fact that the population in general is more credulous and trusting in authority, and more likely to allow the nose of officialdom in. Besides the fact that officialdom is just much closer, kind of like in our big cities.
So I watched the coming apart. And yes, it was more sudden at the onset due to an open revolution which removed existing institutions, or changed the way they worked so no one was sure of the instructions. (Instructions unclear. Insert porcupine where?)
It wasn’t as though a meteor hit. It wasn’t the end of the world as we know it. Not fast, not slow, not in the mid term.
And then we come to the second catalyst for this post: the closest I’ve heard the effect explained, ever: The Ghetto-ization Of American Life.
Honestly, I’d argue this has been going on since 2009 and over the various Summers of Recovery. There was a momentary respite with Trump, until the Covidiocy took hold, but before that, in real terms, we’d become a little poorer each year. Note not in monetary terms. We made the same, or a little higher money every year. Except every year things cost more or were harder to find. Our reserves got stripped more and more every year, and things that should have been easy to find/source/hire someone to do became either difficult to find, expensive, or impossible. And where I was living at the time, daily life became more and more difficult and fraught. Our little grocery store was robbed. We had trouble finding stuff that had been easy before. Etc.
The list in the article is this one:
1. The residents can’t afford to live elsewhere.
2. Everything is a rip-off because options are limited and retailers / service providers know residents have no other choice or must go to extraordinary effort to get better quality or a lower price.
3. Nothing works correctly or efficiently. Things break down and aren’t fixed properly. Maintenance is poor to non-existent. Any service requires standing in line or being on hold.
4. Local governance is corrupt and/or incompetent. Residents are viewed as a reliable “vote farm” for the incumbents, even though whatever little they accomplish for the residents doesn’t reduce the sources of immiseration.
5. The locale is unsafe. Cars are routinely broken into, there are security bars over windows and gates to entrances, everything not chained down is stolen–and even what is chained down is stolen.
6. There are few viable businesses and numerous empty storefronts.
7. The built environment is ugly: strip malls, used car lots, etc. There are few safe public spaces or parks that are well maintained and inviting.
8. Most of the commerce is corporate-owned outlets; the money doesn’t stay in the community.
9. Public transport is minimal and constantly being degraded.
10. They get you coming and going: whatever is available is double in cost, effort and time. Very little is convenient or easy. Services are far away.
11. Residents pay high rates of interest on debt.
12. There are few sources of healthy real food. The residents are unhealthy and self-medicate with a panoply of addictions to alcohol, meds, painkillers, gambling, social media, gaming, celebrity worship, etc.
13. Nobody in authority really cares what the residents experience, as they know the residents are atomized and ground down, incapable of cooperating in an organized fashion, and therefore powerless.
Number 13… maybe. But the rest? it’s absolutely what happens in these circumstances. Little by little by little. Each year is just slightly worse than the last.
I’m here to tell you two things: there a point that people have had enough. It’s just impossible to predict when. In Portugal it was a crazed attempt to consolidate power by arresting everyone to the right of outright communist. The arrest of the socialists panicked people, even though “great reasons” for it were advanced, etc.
Here I’d guess it would be something like trying to lock us down for bird flu (you can see them wanting to) or “climate emergency.”
Already you can tell their attempts at getting a summer of love going aren’t working, because people find the bizarre obsession with Palestine… bizarre. And people remember terrorism and which side of the isle does it. And 10/7 was far too raw and obvious even with their attempts to deflect.
But I don’t have a crystal ball, and I can’t tell you what will be the last drop. I’ll point out of all the causes declared in the Declaration of the Independence, the one that got people moving and doing something was… a fee on official documents.
Of the multiple abuses and grinding that Canada has endured, so far the only thing that got the truckers to rebel was the jab mandate. And once that was withdrawn, they went back to sullen acceptance of insanity.
What will do it here? Only G-d himself knows. More importantly, what of a hundred little rebellions will make a difference in the end? Only G-d himself knows.
Unbeknownst to most of us fed “the revolutionary war as a story” there were a bunch of false starts, before it took hold. And when it took hold was probably the most improbable of the issues.
Unless a revolution is a show imposed from abroad, they tend to be erratic and frankly a little stranger. And unpredictable after they start. When the dice is in the air, only G-d knows which way it will land, even if the inherent culture and population influence it.
Which is why most of us who are still sane hope this can be resolved in the election. That we, MIRACULOUSLY come out in enough numbers they can’t fraud. It is worth voting and trying it, even if it will TAKE A MIRACLE (I’m not naive) because the alternative could go unimaginably bad.
Or it could not. Portugal never recovered all the way past socialism (and are right now in the paws of a Communist/Green cohalition, last I checked, though a slightly defanged, euro one, more like our Democrats than anything else) but it did recover from the very bad times. And it bounced back with a series of demonstrations all over the country that scared the “elites” enough to stop stomping on the face of the economy.
Law enforcement still sucked, and the inflate the currency to escape debt plan of the PIIGS continued through the EU assimilation. And now to a greater extent, they’re living from the savings and land of previous generations. They’re selling their patrimony to foreigners and most can no longer afford to live in their own country.
However, for a moment late seventies to early eighties, it recovered. And it recovered unimaginably fast. Once the throttling rope was removed, the economy started to breathe again. (And everyone got a little or a lot richer than they’d been under national socialism, too.)
I’m not under the impression that our “elites” will be smart enough to get scared if there’s a series of vast demonstrations. But who knows? They almost did with the Tea Party. Almost. And that was pre masks falling down and most people distrusting officialdom.
Or it could be something else. So far they’ve managed to throttle two would be trucker strikes, mostly by deploying the three letters. But that only works so long, you know?
I’m all out of crystal balls. I don’t know when the tip over comes. I know it might be past the end of my life, particularly if it turns out I only have ten years or so. (This would be weird, since my family tends to live at a minimum to their eighties, but two members of my generation went in their late fifties and early sixties, so it’s not out of possibility.) Or it might come tomorrow. Though I doubt it. I think everyone is holding his breath till the election. Which means any tampering with that could get ugly fast. (This is why I’m not planning any trips in November. Not a single one. And I’d advise the same to you. And do your Christmas shopping early.)
One of the pressures the left isn’t seeing because they drink their own ink is something I’ve been observing in my own circle. Why Are There So Many Americans That Can’t Find A Job Even Though They Are Desperate To Be Hired?
They’re believing the official figures, and honestly puzzled as to why people don’t believe the economy is great, but I’ve been watching the unemployment creep up in my circles.
It was bad under Obama, but it’s now catastrophic. I’ve never, in my adult life, see so many of my friends get laid off and being unable to find work for months and months. Sometimes something shows up, eventually, but it’s not a given, and people are running through all possible resources plus some while looking. Older people, a year or so older than I are often just giving up and taking social security, putting more pressure on the already strained system.
Again, I don’t know when it cracks or if it will be peaceful or insane, but it literally can’t go on, and sooner or later, something becomes “intolerable.” Maybe something political, like jailing the opposition. Or something financial, like raising interest rates again. Or something crazy, like forbidding meat/killing most meat animals. Or something dictatorial like another attempted lockdown.
Could be anything really, and our “elites” are crazy-stupid enough to do all of that and even dumber things.
My guess is if we can just get the boot off our necks, the recovery will be unimaginably fast.
But until that happens there isn’t going to be a sudden reversal to the middle ages.
We just, each of us, become a little poorer. Have a little less choice. Every day.
This is already happening. I realized recently that there really aren’t 24/7 diners (or grocery stores) left anywhere. Are those essential for my well being? Well, no. but they are things I enjoyed greatly. For most of our married life, I calmed my fears of growing overseas by telling myself that we’d go by Pete’s Kitchen on the way back from the airport, as a special treat. This was possible at any hour of the day and night.
Heck, between midnight and two in the morning, in Denver, Pete’s Kitchen was like a gathering of every writer in the area. Like going into a convention, I’d walk to my table to a smattering of “oh, hi Sarah.” And plotting sessions with Dan or son would be interrupted for industry discussions with colleagues.
But even our little respites — weekend drive somewhere. Cheap restaurant meal (I LIKE diners, okay?). The occasional fair, or small purchase — are becoming rarer as we simply can’t afford them as often as we used to. Christmas gifts will likely be at least half homemade as a combination of “expensive and can’t find what I want for x.” And we might have to cut Son of Silvercon this year. (We’re really trying not to, but it’s a combination of time and money.)
In my case it’s also tied in to not writing as much, I admit. or writing on an epic I can’t publish yet. I must work on both/and. But that was after 2009 too. Until the year of the six books in a year broke me utterly, and then I couldn’t do it at all.
Anyway, things become hard to find/too expensive. You accept reductions in your lifestyle. At first little ones, then slowly bigger and bigger ones.
It’s never a “and now everything breaks at once.” Look, even blasted places as Cuba or Somalia still exist at a level of modernity. It’s just you get used to living in ruins, and subsisting on very little.
Now there’s reasons that worked in the places it did. I don’t think it works in America.
For one we’re used to a certain standard and their attempts to sell misery as chic are failing. (Outside crazy people and college campuses. BIRM.) For another because they’re pushing much too far too fast. And they don’t realize they’re doing it in the open. For years they destroyed every institution and hollowed out every guarantee of equality under the law, but they did it undetected and no one who didn’t run into it head first knew.
Now… it’s in the open.
If I have to guess — do I? — the turn around comes first very slowly (we’re already there. The sullen resistance to their insanity, in this land, has gotten to the point of having physical weight) and then suddenly.
The best thing would be an election miracle. But it would take a miracle.
Until then, we each get a little poorer, a little more limited every day. The nation gets a little rustier, a little more worn out. On and on and on.
Until it flips.
According To Hoyt 
“He enjoyed the sight of a prosperous street; not more than every fourth one of the stores was out of business, the windows dark and empty.”
(A line from the first chapter of Atlas Shrugged that C and I quote to each other from time to time, when it seems à propos.)
downtowns, except for a few towns, are starting to echo that.
Downtowns and malls. At least locally (both cities). Since I avoid downtown Portland and Salem, IDK there. Suspect same? Only places I know where downtown are thriving are places like Sisters and Jacksonville, Oregon, for their “Old West Historical” flavors. Not catering to the locals but the tourist dollars.
Tourism is sort of helpful in Flyover County, but not into downtown. US97 and some resortish spots around Crater Lake do the best. Curiously(?), the Fred Meyer used to get swamped just before Labor Day by the Burning Man hippies, but they were conspicuous by their absence last year. Either they read the weather reports (it did get massively rained upon), or it’s gone so upscale the less effluent aren’t going. OTOH, the DUI crashes after the party were lessened. No motels with car-shaped holes in the facade last year, so that’s a plus.
‘less effluent’
If that was intentional, bravo.
‘Twas. [grin]
I bet. When we went through K-Falls this winter, we avoided downtown area. For all of hubby’s trips in the fall for the Running Y trip, he has said nothing about exploring downtown K-Falls.
It’s not a downtown that’s all that attractive. Until the med complex opened a pharmacy further south, I’d go to their pharmacy downtown. County business and the optician were the only other reasons to stop there. So, it’s pretty much when I pay taxes or drop off vote-fraud by mail ballots at the county clerk’s office for my main business.
We used to go to the repurposed theater (formerly art deco movie palace, now used for general performances) and another small theater, but the first got too expensive and the second is trying to avoid the Covid lockdown death-spiral. They shut down for over a year, and now $SPOUSE stays home while I do the shopping and in-town errands. Kat-the-dog does not do well on her own, so couples events are off the books for the foreseeable future.
Was in downtown Salem a couple weeks ago, and it seemed pretty normal as far as business activity — at least the quadrant of it that I saw. When I went there in 2020/21, there were massive amounts of “homeless” on the streets (the one exception being the street immediately in front of the Union Gospel Mission, which I think has moved since then). Streets were clear of addicts this time — again, the streets I saw; they could well have gone someplace nearby that I didn’t see. Didn’t see any under the overpass to West Salem, either. There was one ranting lunatic who came from I don’t know where and went to I don’t know where, so I’m assuming where there’s one there’s more…somewhere.
A sign that all may not have been as well as we’d hope: See’s Candies has a stool & countertop just inside the front door that are manned by an armed-and-armored guard; for some reason, they’ve been consistently targeted for theft, robbery, and vandalism.
Clackamas Towne Centre is doing fine, even after Nordstrom’s and Sears left (Sears has been replaced by Dicks Sporting), Washington Square is ok ish, but it caters to more affluent people so it’s not as affeected, Lloyd Centre is a shell. The Rink is still there, and the cinema, and a smaller food court, but that’s about it.
Sears at Gateway Mall is still a shell. Rest of the mall redone. Has a Target and Cabella’s as anchor stores, as well as the huge movie multiplex.
Valley River, one of the big sears like stores that went out, is now a big kids/teen gaming complex. Otherwise the smaller store fronts seem to come and go.
Both malls are always different. We don’t frequent them much anymore. Exception in Cabellas and they have their own entrance and exit.
Yup. Attempts to draw people downtown here have foundered, in part because of the lack of grocery stores and things, in part because of the homeless/shady/intoxicated/nonmedicated/just strange people who drift through or hang around the edges of the main center of night life. People didn’t move into the area to live, and without that, things just don’t thrive the way developers and boosters had hoped. Or at least not thus far.
Who wants to go downtown in any big city these days, even during daylight hours?
I know I don’t want to-and I’m a large male who can handle himself.
Security issues, problems with the trustees of modern chemistry, lack of anything I want to do, lack of anything affordable to do, costs of doing anything, lack of space for anything…
If I was to get a job in San Francisco, I’d have to really, really think hard if I want to go for it. And if I had to move to somewhere like LA or New York, I’d probably say no.
Yeah, nobody could pay me enough money to work in San Fran or LA. Any amount sufficient to make me even think about moving there would also put me in “so long, suckers” territory.
There are parts of the LA Basin and the SF Bay Area that I might live and work in, but for the most part…no.
Too crowded.
Too expensive.
Too dirty.
Too hypocritical.
Too frustrating.
Aye, weather is better, so the homeless brigade is back in the city. It seems the chance of single digit temps encourages the homeless to find warmer places to stay.
Daughter and I did a road trip to Austin before Wee Jamie was born – she wanted to hit the new Daiso store in West Austin, and the Aldi in Pflugerville. That was three years ago, and downtown Austin was a pit. We were horrified – Daughter used to go to Austin for the Pecan St. festival, and general socializing. But on that trip, we saw homeless everywhere, their encampments everywhere, and OMG, the graffiti! That was three years ago, and we haven’t been back since, and don’t intend to. At ground level, downtown and the corridor along I-35 just screamed ‘funky, drug-ridden, lawless ghetto’.
There’s a book event scheduled in Austin for summer for local writers coming up – and I’ll pass. The street life there sends every alarm pinging.
Downtown Flyover Falls has been like that for a while. It was spotty in the early ‘aughts, but with the Summers of Recovery, downtown is getting closer to a ghost town.
OTOH, some of the closed/never opened businesses have either been repurposed or finally (10+ years) got a usable tenant. These are not downtown, but tend to be where the rurals are likely to drive by. If there’s parking for a big trailer (16’ flatbed or similar critter hauler), the store is more likely to survive.
The thing that’s getting me nervous is the mucking with power, primarily electricity, but also petroleum. Seems TPTB in Oregon take the worst ideas from Cali-f’n-ornia and Washing-toons and either do a copy or “Hold my wine, We can make it worse.”. Being given the ridiculous mandates from a handful of bureaucrats and toadies in one urban corner of the state isn’t going over well with the rest of it.
Nor those of us in the I-5 corridor and we’re closer to loony tunes in Portland, I mean, Salem.
In addition we’ve been “having fun”.
So the Oregon Amber Alert from Washington state that went out Monday night, got resolved, Tuesday afternoon, just north of the Beltline interchange. Toddle rescued. Abductor self eliminated. I-5 shutdown most the rest of the day, both directions (took place in medium, he was south bound). Then Wednesday, 3 PM, our residential area got shutdown. I wasn’t home. Found out that part later. But was headed west on Beltline, a whole slew of police cars, ambulance EMT, fire SUV, went blasting by (ish, not even full sirens gets them through fast when Delta/Beltline interchange is plugged), taking north bound expressway (toward our neighborhood). Murder in our neighborhood (about 1/4 mile from our street, not quite right behind the grade school, but too dang close). Then hubby reported one in Junction City. Yesterday or Thursday there was one on Prairie Road between us and Junction City.
We live in one the not rich, solid lower middle to middle class, safe section of the greater urban area. The area where there are no bars on windows. Where most (always a few, cough, one neighbor) properties are kept maintained.
And not even with people in that corner – plenty of us who live/work in& around the PDX area are fed up.
Both sides of the river have a lot of empty in the old downtowns. Menominee a bit less than Marinette, as Menominee’s is less industrial and the Lakefront is across the street. The one “big” mall is rather empty of small shops and the Applebee’s died. The Shipyard has taken over portions as office space, was using it as an out-lot for parking (running school busses back and forth all day) until they acquired the ability to make a lot on land owned by a neighboring company (just getting a lease was the simple part) There is a rather large automotive industry supplier in Marinette that is slowly shutting down (KSPG, a part of Rheinmetal). I think they are down to less than a quarter of their former employees now (they apparently offered a very generous package to stay until the departments each shut down) as they’ve gone from 3 shift nearly 24-7 running to 2-ish shifts with rare OT.
My employer is cutting as much OT as possible. Tends not to affect me as I hate OT, and my schedule is offset from the norm to cover for someone who always works the others day off, and really they worked a LOT of unneeded OT (one supe thought if he didn’t always schedule OT they’d not get any, and it got to that was the norm and any setbacks or big orders became 7 day work weeks.) My OT refusal to that particular supe brought some changes, but as my personal department got shut down, someone in management noticed that 85% of my Sales Orders and Production Orders were “Past Due” WHEN ENTERED into the system. My new position is not dealing with that, but is susceptible to emergencies, and new management is more open to trying to have some of that covered, perhaps too much at the moment but that’s a different rant. More and more of our jobs are being posted “Internal filling” only as no new hires, and some of our turnover is not being filled even though the jobs were listed. They use a temp/hiring service for entry level stuff, but even some of those positions are not being sent to them for filling. I just popped over to the corporate site to see outside showing job listings and only 4 positions are listed that are not managerial/engineering.
The local Logistics company is building a big new facility that our company will move into, so we do still have expansion plans.
at this point, I am all out of mercy. Too freaking tored for it.
Aristo, aristo, a la lanterne at least has some energy to it
1 or 2 real consequences will cause the elites to pump the brakes … and by real consequences I mean 6 foot under consequences … I thought Cuomo would be the first with his nursing home murders … I guess he got lucky and didn’t murder the parents of someone with terminal cancer …
It’s always hard to hold polititcians responsible. If they could actually be held responsible, who would want the job?
It’s hard to hold them legally responsible, but legality isn’t everything, not by a long shot (pun intended). 😈
Lone Star Planet had it right, I think.
Yep. “Justified killing of a practicing politician isn’t murder.” (Somewhat paraphrased.)
And then, after committing mass murder, Cuomo was removed from office for making a few women ‘feel uncomfortable’.
HELLO MASS MURDER OF HELPLESS OLD FOLKS IN NURSING HOMES!!
[crickets]
“I felt uncomfortable.” “Me too.”
[sacked within a month]
When I was still on active duty and moving around a lot – I had to change residence fairly often, and when looking at a neighborhood, I considered the presence of iron-barred windows on houses an absolute no-way-in-hell. Yep, that’s a bad ghetto ‘hood, and nothing that I wanted any part of.
But, yeah, conditions are getting miserable, little bit by little bit. The matter of vaguely menacing homeless in my neck of the woods got sorted by dint of loud complaints by neighbors to the right authorities … but my city (although blue-tinged) is still in Texas and our state government is notably sane.
Still … the erratic gaps on the grocery store shelves do speak to chancy supply and transportation issues in the supply chain. And as much as the official organizations and the establishment media claims otherwise — the price of everything has gone up and will continue going up.
Buckle up. Gonna be a bumpy ride.
And I’m not planning on going anyplace in November, either.
When C and I were moving from California to Kansas, we had a motel reservation in a city in western New Mexico. We drove up to the motel, and saw that one of its ground floor rooms had a broken window. That looked like a bad sign, so we searched for other locations, picked a motel outside the city that looked decent (and was), and called to cancel our reservation.
My next trip to the west side of the Cascades is set for Labor Day. Doctor’s appointment the Tuesday after, so I’ll be driving counterflow on Monday. Crossing my fingers.
When I was in college, the Honors Program had a house as the “lounge.” (And study area, and occasional classroom area. That’s been torn down, and they only have a room in the Ad. Pity. I darned near lived in that house.) The house faced the campus, not a street. On the front window—but not on any other window—there was a large set of bars.
I kid you not, someone was asking me about that one day and in a case of perfect timing, a thrown football whanged into the bars from the lawn directly in front of the house. “Guess they got tired of replacing windows,” I said.
Re November, I’d add October too. No telling the magnitude of October Surprise they will decide they need to try.
Agree. I think a November surprise is too late. September surprise is too early. October surprise sounds about right. Not early October, or Halloween, too early, and too late. Second or third week at the latest.
Huh. WP still eating my comments.
Sigh.
Also worth noting that Ace has been discussing the labor statistics. Two things he’s noted – the first is that despite the fact they look fake, most of the “experts” seem to be taking them at face value. Why?
The second item was a post this morning noting that the weekly unemployment numbers seem a little too consistant. That’s something you generally only see when there’s a feeble attempt at faking the numbers.9
The experts always drink their own ink. Their own valuation depends on supporting officialdom.
Can tell when unemployment is headed to the ditch. Either “not enough experience” for those with none to limited experience. Or “too much” experience for the position. Anyone pushing 50 is headed toward the latter. No question. If actually old enough, most are forced into taking SS earlier than planned. Then they often go out to supplemental most part time income jobs where young people should be learning job skills. I know of one person working, just because (nuts, but whatever).
People in my age group (late-40’s and so) are finding it very hard to find a new job, even if they have some very essential skills or capabilities. Know of at least one programmer, who does some very high level stuff, who hasn’t been able to find a job in his field for nearly a year at this point. Sort of guy that a company shouldn’t be able to hire enough fresh-off-the-boat Indians to fill in for one white American guy who knows these things and save any kind of money.
It’s getting weird out there. Far too dangerous and weird.
The kind that it would cost the company more money than they could afford to do what the guy does.
Yes. Know more than a few ex-coworkers who were off longer than I was. Honestly? Better technical and faster programmers than me.
My edge was I am dang good translating from end users, and producing, without a technical translator between me and the end user. Wasn’t that much slower with solution either. Plus my solutions do not have some one months later going “Clever. Now how do I change this? Without throwing the code away?”
Both programmer/developer types are needed.
What was the reason I got a job months faster? Especially since I was limited geographically (could NOT move)? IDK Interview better? Not as picky? Attitude? My last job (I was told) I beat out a couple of applicants with Phd’s (Wait? What?). I know why I beat out better technically qualified and experienced applicants in ’90. First, forestry and computer degree. Second, I knew where Gardiner Oregon was and knew what to expect. Didn’t expect to get the job because knew I we weren’t moving to the Oregon coast, and commuting not viable option. But, longer term, maybe a job in Longview (not commutable, but hubby could get transferred there, maybe). They moved the job to Veneta. Veneta could be commuted to.
I have been incredibly blessed in one area of my life (two, with my wife): I worked 40 years in the field of my degrees, and 26 years with my present company. I’ve taken any assignment available, in any area, and been willing to work nights and weekends not just for the job but to pick up more skills. Now at 63, I just hope I can keep going.
High end programmers are getting an extra squeeze on top of everything else.
Nothing provable in public, but mumble mumble the VCs and investment firms don’t like the idea of a mere programmer earning 500k/year. The fact that he generates 20m/year for the company doesn’t matter, because it isn’t about the money.
500k/year? Blink.
I never saw salary + annual bonus, above $70k/year (2015). Nobody was paying any better locally either. Took be 12 years to work back up to that pay. (2002 salary was $68k no bonuses). Would I have seen a raise for 2016, and beyond, if I’d stayed. I am not H1B. Kept hearing repeatably that Eugene isn’t as expensive as Portland, let alone Seattle, etc. Seattle, etc., true. Greater Portland/Vancouver? Wrong.
Note that I did specify high end programmers.
True.
While I knew high end programmers at my last two jobs. I guaranty they weren’t making that kind of money. More than me? Sure. But they’d been at the respective companies longer too.
One (as it turned out) actually had less over all programming experience. But he had been at that company longer and was a step up (not a lot of steps) in responsibility without being in management.
The other, younger, had about the same overall experience. Then too, he was doing work that was more critical to that company, and by ’96, a rarer skill set (in ’60s and early ’70s, required skill set for anything). He did embedded programming to create the OS for the main products. VS me writing application programs with VB and C. Which while I was dang good at it, I was replaceable.
But, neither company was making life saving computer dependent equipment used in medical, or even transportation, etc., equipment, either.
Also, true, even most good programmers aren’t going to be in the 500k+ range.
But the 200k range is much more common, and still high enough to be offensive to the money and management.
They don’t believe in wizards. Or more accurately, they believe in their own magic, but not the magic of programmers. Who make the things that they use every single day to get things done…
Many of the VC pure money types, excluding VCs that actually started and built something themselves, think programmer = H1b = indentured = cheap, so they are convinced anything more is a waste of their money.
“they are convinced anything more is a waste of their money.”
And because of the rampant long term H1b fraud, their thinking is correct, at least for this quarter, which is many in management’s focus.
Sometimes you just need Gandalf-level coding, but once you hit VC funding rounds the only real way to have those is for those l33t skills to reside in company founders head.
That, and it’s intuitively obvious that Good Management is the key to success, and all they need is some manpower to manage. H1-Bs, Bangladeshi remotes, and some low-paid locals are just fine. They’re all interchangeable.
After all, if they were smart, they’d be managers, wouldn’t they?
This has been going on for a while. And if they know they’re pushing you down they push extra hard. Grumbles in since 91 breaking six figures has been iffy, and D*MN it he’s keeping the whole thing afloat.
The problem with hiring cheap immigrants for programming is that the best programmers over the life of your product have well-balanced math and verbal skills. That in itself is rare when both are moderately high. Then select from American-or-Commonwealth English as a Second Language candidates and your ability to select based on skill is greatly diminished.
As snelson noted above, “the life of your product” is most likely greater than “next quarter” so to VCs that is not relevant.
Remember, VCs really make their money when the company gets bought.
A tale from long, long ago, when my mother was working for the school kitchens and I hadn’t hit college yet.
There was one co-worker who had the part-time job at the kitchen who did not need it, but laughingly said she “just can’t sit around the house all the time.” My mother worked with her for years, and found eventually that the household (empty nester) had FOUR incomes not counting the school job.
1. The husband had done his twenty years in the military and retired. Pension #1.
2. He then worked for the railroad for a few decades and retired. Pension #2.
3. SHE had been in the military and retired from it. Pension #3.
4. She then worked for the STATE for twenty and retired from THAT. Pension #4.
And when I first heard of this, I said indignantly (having applied to the school myself) that she ought to volunteer somewhere to “get out of the house” and stop taking a job away from someone who NEEDS it.
Another factor to consider is America is just huge – physically and in many other ways too. Sure, there will be substantial areas of “failure” (think blue cities and states). There will also be major areas of sanity and stability from which determined people can and will recover/rebuild.
Along with the above, the “culture” here in the USA is an odd ball hybrid and unlike most places, the individual person is much more independent. The sane people in the locations of crazy will leave and the areas that are developing, building and making progress will succeed. My thinking anyway – the “good guys” will win simply because they are doing the right things, the right way with the idea everyone can win.
The Democratic National Convention In Chicago come this August will be very good indicator for what to expect. It ain’t going to be ’68 but will non the less get out of control and TPTB will not be able to rein it in. Stocking up on popcorn…
…and marshmallows. There will be plenty of fires. Just keep them out of the toxic smoke.
Oh, yeah. I meant to mention this. Even during the civil war, for MOST people it was a matter of their kids going off to fight, but hteir day to day didn’t change.
The 30 Years War. If you were not in the way of an army, or part of an army, what you noticed was the crazy inflation (thank you, Spanish gold) and lousy weather (thank you, Little Ice Age).
If you were in one of those areas where armies sloshed back and forth, well, G-d help you, because no one else could. And even that didn’t last the duration of the war.
I was just thinking a way to make an interesting congratulations-you-just-joined an-interstellar-war flick on a lower budget would be to do the story of the Earth home front, with various alien tech tricking down into day-to-day life but all the able bodied youngsters vanishing off to go fight the big baddies.
Like Norton’s “Star Solders”? Big intergalactic need to prune the new plants intelligence life into extinction so the only thing they can export is their war expertise. Won’t spoil what humans of earth were really doing.
A bit like Rilla of Ingleside? (The last of the Anne of Green Gables books.) Though probably without the War to End All Wars nonsense.
Indeed, I recently started thinking about the population of the US as “a third of a billion people”. It really helps put the size into perspective.
There is so much variation from place to place. For example, upthread people mentioned dead malls, which is a definite trend. However, trend is not destiny, and where I live there are malls that are doing quite well still.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
….Wordpress? That’s creative even for you.
It did the same thing to me on Cat Rotator’s last week. WPDE….. with a flamethrower.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
A big part of places going unrented isn’t that nobody wants it, it’s that nobody wants to rent it at that price.
second half of statement– nobody wants to rent it at that price, but if they rent it for less, it screws with their existing values. So it’s better to declare a loss than to rent.
My area has both. But to echo one of Fox’s 22 comment(s), it’s also a price thing – my local Woodcraft store in Tigard is going out of business due to the sudden raise of it’s rent. Good for me temporarily because I’m getting a few things less expensively, but still.
“I’ve never, in my adult life, see so many of my friends get laid off and being unable to find work for months and months. “
Lately, this has been my biggest concern. I’m going to be 59 in a couple weeks and we are in the middle of a contract re-compete. I’m sure I’d find something unrelated at a fraction of the pay. This bothers me.
develop a hobby that can pay. Most of my friends are doing this…
Yes. That is an option.
If nothing else, I can probably cut enough firewood to sustain us for a time. Somehow I don’t think it will be as easy as when I was 16.
Nothing is.
Nothing? Well, there’s thinking rationally… 😉
More than one if possible. Bonus if they can intertwine and boost each other, but are independent enough that one having trouble won’t splash on the others.
Nike is going through their 2% dump of employees. 1500 people. Haven’t heard if any of the nieces who work there are being affected. One is on family leave. Buyer, been there 10 years. The other two have worked their way successfully through various departments, getting recommended each step. But who knows. Two nieces are the primary income producer, including the one on paternity leave, the other is single. The third’s compensation matches her partner’s.
Been there done that. Age 46 getting cut during DOT com bankruptcy downsizing. Age 48, before I worked my way into the next job. It was work. Compensation sucked, I worked to get that last job. New job was well under prior job compensation, but better than $0 getting while looking (or even what getting when qualified for unemployment).
I gave up on full-time employment as an office admin/executive secretary when I was about 58-59. I had a military pension, and scraped by with part-time, the Teeny Publishing Bidness, and writing work.
I could read the writing on the wall. I was too old for just about anyone hiring to consider, unless it was as a greeter at Walmart.
When things blew up at the office for my last job (not job related, or employee related, exactly, didn’t want to be a statistic), I was 58. Turned 59 before I gave official notice. But, yea, done. Didn’t even try. Our saving grace is: We Saved. We paid ourselves first. We each have pensions. Hubby’s isn’t chump change, but not stellar either. Mine is $1440/year, at $121/month. Did not mistype that. The only financial decision I would change, is all our income is taxable (except the little feds don’t tax of SS, just because). If we had more outside accounts then except for annual investment taxes, any money we used from those accounts is already taxed. Or we should have dumped more of the IRA money into ROTH accounts. The latter is what we are having son do. Calculate the cost of his taxes for ROTH VS IRA.
We got caught in the Dot com bust in 2020/21. $SPOUSE’s employer (large, troubled semiconductor company) went toes up and she was laid off. The next job was a service company/contractor for Silicon Valley, but the management was intolerable. I was laid off just before 9/11 from Agilent (formerly HP) and found that almost all the semiconductor companies were either leaving California or had already shipped the lines to Asia/Taiwan.
I had a 10 month stint consulting for a European IC tester company that paid well. Between the Agilent severance and that well-paid job, we had enough money to fix up the San Jose house and move to rural Oregon. I was 50, and money was tight until we could access retirement (nearest jobs were 40 miles away, and “viable” was a matter of opinion). Got pretty good at doing my own outbuilding construction and making tools for the small acreage we have. (13 acres, part wooded part meadow).
We got lucky and $SPOUSE was firm at establishing spending limits. (“I’m stupid about money,” h/t <i>Chef</i>) We’ve returned to tighter spending…
FWIW, we were considering monetizing hobby efforts, but Oregon’s business licensing made that rather unattractive. Way too much of a crap shoot, and with upfront fees, nope. It would have been hard to do it cash/under the table, too.
Here in Kalifornia, you have to get a business license to sell junk at the swap meet more than twice.
Not twice a year. Twice EVER.
Whether you make any money or not.
Reason #4781 why we didn’t consider California when we left Silicon Valley in 2003. $SPOUSE was a hard no when I mused about NW LP Michigan (Traverse City), and Michigan relatives reminded me about the health effects Michigan weather does to the family, so I missed the opportunity to be under Wretchen Whitmer’s boot. We got Despicable Kate Brown, instead, so that was a wash…
Wasn’t going to sell Montana nor the Dakotas, and neither of us deal well with deep south weather.
No, no, you’re saying it wrong. It’s Half-Whitmer. 😛
Snerk!
In the computer industry, computer jobs are thin in eastern Oregon, as a rule. Some in Bend. But long term viable? IDK These days best to do remote work if live in eastern Oregon, or Washington. Not that you are looking.
When hubby was transferred to Randle Washington, also had the options of Tillamook Oregon, or way south of La Pine Oregon, but north of K-Falls. None were any better prospects for my getting a new job. Now if I’d had the job I finally landed in Feb 2004, 5 months after he was *transferred, that would have worked out to be good remote (had one employee working out of Colorado, that I never met). Not that we’d relocate anyway.
First, questionable on how long the jobs would last, and be transferred again anyway (none of them did, the jobs swap through the 4 non-for-profit independent companies every 5 years, and these 3 locations were on the fringe of hubby’s company’s range). Note, they didn’t last more than 5 years. Second, and most important, hubby was adamant we weren’t moving son just after he started his freshman HS year, plus change troops, as Life scout (talk about stalling out, that is the way to do so, took son 18 months to Eagle as it was). Hubby wasn’t wrong. It was just a long 17 months, and 48k miles commuting back and forth weekends. Selling the house would have been easy, and profitable. Getting housing on the flip side, and any of the locations OTOH would have been a PIA, buying, let alone renting (cats, no dog), let alone flipping it 5 years later.
((*)) Took his company 13 months to find out I wasn’t working. That he wouldn’t refuse a transfer. Oh he could have. He’d have just quit. We talked about it. Figured worse case it was 28 months until he turned 55, and 30+ years qualified for early retirement, full benefits. Plus make sure know to northern supervisor perfectly willing to fill in for Eugene area vacations (get daily per diem, mileage, and OT travel time, because of distance, for living at home), happened about every other month for a week or two. We’d just shake our heads. Won’t forget the Saturday son and hubby took the truck to do a “long” errand, early March 2005, and showed up towing the trailer. Surprise. He’d been transferred back to Eugene, Thank G-D!
Sounds like Gilcrest, and that mill has been closed for several years. (Not sure if that job was at a mill or loading site for a logging operation, but there isn’t much logging going on in county either. There’s a mill somewhere in Lake county, and some mill activity in Jackson county, but it’s a lot quieter than in the Aughts.
As a slightly related note, TPTB are talking about striving for a mass slaughter of barred owls. With K-Mart gone and the signs taken down, even more spotted owl habitat has gone away. /sarc, I think.
Around Gilcrest. Ramp and Yard I think. Log Scaling. I know it is now gone. Along with many others.
Ramps have mostly been gone since the late ’90s, as has log rafts. Randle and Morton, still had truck ramps in the early ’00s. But I think those were the last of them. Mostly log rollout these days.
I just shake my head at the conniption over the Barred Owl. They are Spotted Owl moving in from another area. Compatible because not forcing out the Spotted Owl, they are mating with them. Idiots. They need to be sued over destroying Spotted Barred Owls. /sarcasm cause “ya that’ll happen, never”.
When Waffle Houses are no longer open 24 hours, you know the fat has truly hit the fire.
The two near me are still 24/7.
The city’s Denny’s is 24/7, but my preferred breakfast place runs 8AM to 2PM. I think one of the independent diners has really good hours, but there are only a few places where I know I can safely eat the food, so I’m really picky. If things go really pearshaped, eating somebody else’s cooking will go out the window.
Unemployment statistics are both weird and made up. I started taking a different route to where the chain restaurants are that we frequent, along with the department stores we go to. And all the large buildings that housed large corporations had large banners hanging off the sides- “Now Hiring!” Yet, people cannot find jobs… If you traverse our highways, every trucking company has a website and toll free number on the back of their trailers if you want a driver’s job.
As for 24/7 grocery stores, I miss them. During the covidiocy all but one convenience store chain in the area started shutting at 10 PM, along with every grocery store. Including Walmart. I talked a lot with a cashier at a local food store I frequented on my way home from the 4-midnight shift. I see him now and again if I stop on the way into work. No way, no how, can they pay him enough to return to midnights. And I know and talk to people in Walmart management positions. They don’t even have overnight stockers anymore, much less enough people to keep the store open for business. And the convenience stores? Except for the one chain- none are open 24/7. They’re not “essential” 24/7 businesses, like hospitals or generating plants, or their ilk, and no one sees any reason to sacrifice other parts of their life to work a midnight shift for a store. Same with all the fast food places that were 24/7. The ones on the Thruway are open, the ones just off the exits aren’t anymore. UNLESS- they’re part of a major truck stop.
I think AWFLs and their agenda are what’s going to cause a tipping point. That and/or DEI. Nobody I know, in person, or online, thinks that minors should be “transitioned”, especially those of us who realize that such a thing isn’t actually possible. The process creates a neutered simulacrum, and usually not a very good one.
And inflation statistics- everyone laughs at them. Before the covidiocy, store brand bread, the kind I like- not the really cheap variety, was $1.99 a loaf, 2 for $3.00. First they dropped the twofer price. And now it’s $2.59 a loaf. From $3.00 for two to $5.18- is not anywhere near the published inflation rate,
The trucking: it’s harder to get those jobs than you’d think, and the jobs are HIGHLY difficult to keep. As in danger to life and limb difficult.
Still possible. Son’s friend is driving I-5 daily. And the trucking company had to pay for him to get his regular driver’s license first. They couldn’t afford the insurance for another driver in the house hold (one of the friends who he and his wife live with his folks). Then trucking company paid for the instruction to get the certifications required. Worth it for the company. He doesn’t drink, ever, or do drugs. But, yea. Driving I-5, and he is home every night, is not a joy ride.
After MIL passed away, I no longer had to consider long drives on I-5 in California. Now, it’s a few miles between the Central Point Costco and my hotel in southish Medford. Not a fun drive at all, but for the distance, I can take it. Still much prefer 2 lane roads over freeways.
In ’82 before hubby got hired back, he and a couple of others went south to one of the other not-for-profit companies. Assigned in Medford/Central Point area. I went down to look for housing (housing hadn’t crashed, yet, in Longview). Never found a place to rent (4 cats and a big dog, might have been a problem). Hubby got called back after he’d been down there 6 weeks.
Most large trucking companies run their own driving schools. They get money from the Fed to run “migrants” through the program. Since the company doesn’t get paid unless they graduate…
The usual thing after graduation was to put them on the road with a trainer for a while. A friend used to do that. After 2010 or so, he was getting new CDLs who couldn’t fill out their logbooks, couldn’t talk with the customers or dispatch because they didn’t speak English, and didn’t know how to drive a truck. Particularly if it was a manual transmission.
The reaction to the pro-Hamas protestors has been interesting. I don’t think the protests are going over well with the normies, though Ithe media largely ignores that.
The Media hates the normies, they think the normies are the problem. Not realizing the normies are the majority and the ones paying for everything.
The Normies pay for everything, because the normies are the most people. Even in blue cities and states, the normies out number the liberals. You get past their cheating, and the wack job liberal democrats are done for and they know it. Normies are where the tax dollars are at, you could take all the millions and billions away from all those millionaire’s and billionaire’s and it wouldn’t run the government for a week. That money would then be gone, Oh, the good ones would make it back again, some of them. No, the real money is the middle class normies. When you start losing them, you begin your death spiral.
“Hamazis”
actually, yes.
Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, who founded the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is one offshoot, was Himmler’s man in the mideast. Arguably, hamas is the last operational division of the Waffen SS
Some years ago I learned that official inflation statistics don’t include the price of food or of energy, because those are considered too volatile or something. That seems to mean that “inflation” ignores the great majority of what most people spend money on.
For the Fed, that constitutes a feature, not a bug. 😡
In 2020 orange juice was around $3.00 a gallon, semi-regularly on sale for $2.50. Now it’s $7.00+ a gallon and NO sales.
Eggs were under $2.00 a dozen, $1.50 on sale. Today they’re $3.80.
BidenFlation is pushing 60% since January 2021.
“But inflation is down!” Even if they’re not lying to us, ‘inflation is down!’ is not good news. Prices are not going back down; they’re just increasing at a lower rate. It’s slowed down, but we’re still bleeding.
When you notice prices are going up at Costco … Yea. $3.99/2-gallon whole milk, now $6.19. OTOH occasionally can get it on sale at local Kroger, $2.50/gallon ($3.79 regular). Have been able to get soda (Pepsi products) at local Kroger for $0.41/can (electronic coupon $4.99 each, 5 maximum; or buy 2 get 3 free, $0.33/can and unlimited). Otherwise Costco is average $0.50/can (Pepsi/Coke). Cheese. Tillamook 2# block (I think, not the super long one) was $4.99/block before Bidenomics, now $13.99 regular, and $10.99 “on sale”. Now it’ll be $6.99, maximum 5, electronic coupon. Oh. Meat. Costco hamburger is now $4.99/#, was $2.99/#. Steak? OMG, the “good” ones were bouncing $9.99 to $13.99/#. Now lucky if the “lessor quality” version of the cut is $28.99/#, $35.99/# for the very good quality of the cut. These are just the items that I cringe when I see the price increase on.
Frozen chicken breasts haven’t gone up (much) so far. $2.40 a pound last March.
The reference for 2021 is: $2.30 a pound. And that’s Foster Farms for both instances.
I see the inflation and wide swings of prices on eggs. Had a respite where 18 count eggs were around $3, then they went up to $4.28, but are back down (though for the first two packs).
Generic cheese (Sherm’s Thunderbird brand, produced in Bandon) is running between $5 and $6 for a two pound brick. Seems Good Enough, and much more affordable than Tillamook. (Sherm’s is a three-store mini-chain, in Grant’s Pass, Medford and K-Falls. They do their best to keep prices viable.)
I get the frozen tenderloins and a foster farms specialty chicken. Correct Costco’s chicken prices are steady. Their 12 pack eggs have gone up, but not horribly. The Rotisserie Chicken is still $4.99 (even with new plastic bag VS plastic tray packaging), and long hot dog with drink is still $1.50. Both lost leaders. Although with new packaging the Rotisserie Chicken might be less of a loss leader. Locally both loss leaders all but fly out the door. Rotisserie Chicken is snatched off the heated display case as soon as they come out of the oven and packaged.
Central Point Costco was still doing the trays at the end of March. They reintroduced the chicken caesar salad (pretty good with the rotisserie chicken pieces), though the plastic-treated paper plate was a bit off.
If they brought back the polish sausage, I’d be really happy. The minced onions would be nice, too. #dreamon
That has to be a regional thing. The walmart where I work has an overnight stocker shift.
The the entire year I’ve been working there we have not even once had the number of people on my shift that we are supposed to have.
I went down to the East Bay yesterday (needed to get out of town for a while) and…it was depressing.
Semi-permanent homeless encampments. With piles of trash the “inhabitants” had collected, even in decently lower-to-middle middle class areas. There’s been some efforts to get them off of freeway entrances and such, but I saw quite a few even on nominal “state” property. I’ve heard in lower income areas they’re even worse, but I won’t go into any of them. Not safe for a white boy.
Many, many closed storefronts that haven’t been filled. Restaurant locations that have been clearly closed since the Crow Flu. Stores on “main streets” that should be busy but aren’t.
Places that are open and aren’t franchises have the look of much deferred maintenance-worn, needing paint and repairs, new signs/branding, general upkeep, etc, etc, etc…
The AirBnB I stayed at…same thing. Clearly worn and needing some serious upkeep. It was clean, new sheets on the bed and everything, but just…worn.
Roads had massive potholes-but some very well-kept bike lanes and separation devices to keep traffic out of the bike lanes.
$7/gallon gas here doesn’t surprise me, which is why I bought a new hybrid when I had to get a new car. Many here think that $10/gallon gas is a very good thing and it’ll encourage public transportation and bicycle riding. And don’t understand that higher energy costs means higher food and materials costs-and fewer jobs.
And on the job issue…this goes into the territory of rumor, so be warned-
A lot of companies are hiring very low on the totem pole (i.e. entry-level positions) and are only promoting internally, even for relatively “high-end” positions. This is because if they hire someone from outside, that person can demand a lot more money than someone they just promoted internally(1). But they’re required to put out requests for new employees for certain tax breaks and state/Federal regulations. So, employers “run the clock out” with multiple interviews, insane entry requirements, low-balling salaries, etc, etc, etc so that even if the outside candidate is accepted, they’re probably going to be getting a lot less than they would have been able to have demanded before.
I am hoping that this election will continue what happened during the first Trump Presidency and some kind of rationality appears in the world. Because letting this go on is going to be nothing but a disaster for everyone. (It doesn’t hurt-or help-that they’re turning Trump into an American version of Nelson Mandella, the man wronged by the Powers That Be.)
(1-And part of this might be because the people now in charge of companies were around when people job-hopped on a regular basis 15-20 years ago and citied as one of the reasons why they were leaving “clueless/incompetent middle management.” Now the middle managers are on top…so, they won’t take anybody that could be a “whiner” in.)
Just before my grandson was born, my daughter and I did a road trip to Austin … daughter loves Daiso, and the nearest is in west Austin. (We also love Aldi, and the nearest to us is in Pflugerville.) We drove through downtown Austin, and were horrified. Graffiti and homeless and their encampments everywhere along the downtown corridor. Businesses with boarded–up windows on the ground floor. This was three years ago – not going to Austin again, for any reason. There’s supposed to be a book event sponsored by a local author association next month – and no. Just no.
The change in everything when we got to Pflugerville was amazing. No graffiti. No homeless. Everything neat and well-maintained.
The difference is the same here, between where I am and the East Bay/SF. I went to SF last Sunday and it was just a mess. Very little motivation to go back for anything but the most essential things.
I can tell you it’s not rumor where I work.
I’m not surprised. I wouldn’t also be surprised if there was a quiet, informal “do not employ” list floating out there with HR companies and I think I might have gotten on it because of issues at my last pre-Crow Flu job (i.e. made a mistake, it was called “sexual harassment”, and I was put on a PIP and told that if I had another incident I’d be gone).
The same in Austin – homeless and their camps, graffiti everywhere. My daughter and I did a road trip just before Wee Jamie was born … and no, we’ll skip going to Austin for anything for the foreseeable future.
I’m reading a book where Chicago hits by a major Supervillain assault.
The terrible thing is that Chicago survives. [Very Big Crazy Grin]
The least the author could have done is have it sink back into the lake and swamps it crawled out of. I got it, eureka! A large meteorite hits the lake causes a tsunami and cleans out Chicago. The Green nuts would love it if you just called it Mother Natures Enema. 🤣
Hero 5th Edition Revised (AKA FRED) had Doctor Destroyer (think Dr. Doom but with much less humor and slightly more Nazis) level Detroit and they rebuilt it into Millenium City, “the city of the future” in their game universe.
It might be one of the few times when supervillains were responsible for urban renewal…
That’s because superheroes and supervillains can magically have all these fights and interstellar adventure and never change the mundane world.
Wearing the Cape, or the new Capes series that just came out?
The new “Capes” book.
The Main Character “breaks-through” during the attack on Chicago.
He becomes a “jumper” (ie teleporter) but for reasons he doesn’t really want to be a Superhero but circumstances causes him to “reconsider”.
Oh, Great Book and I extremely enjoyed it (especially the final scene).
Oh. I had expected The Eggplant.
Fire the Carp-apult!!!!
In ‘The Weapon’ by Michael Z. Williamson, the Freehold saboteurs set off a massive FAE (fuel-air explosive) in the tunnels under Chicago. Doesn’t blow the city off the map, but the foundations of numerous buildings get damaged and Lake Michigan pours in, making repairs impossible. All the city’s utilities run through those tunnels, too, so no water, no power, sewage in the streets, etc.
Here he goes again.
https://twitchy.com/amy-curtis/2024/04/26/biden-proposes-25-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-n2395547
Do we also get a tax credit for unrealized losses? Is the tax refunded if the stock price goes back down?
Don’t bother; we already know the answers.
Right.
BenDoverNomics
Looking for a bright side, if they wanted to crash the stock market ahead of an election, this would be high on the list of good ways to do it. How would that help them?
Far from evil masterminds, they’re morons.
Downside, being that far from reality, who knows what stupidity they think will make sense.
They are going to try to keep any stupid catastrophic events from happening until after most the mail in votes are in. That way, events in October, might change people’s vote but they’ll already have voted.
OTOH their campaign against President Trump is backfiring so badly, their plan is going to have everyone voting for President Trump well before the last minute shenanigans. One can hope. I think they’ll have to have last minute contingencies that remove President Trump between election day and verification day. Plus scaring the VP candidate into resigning.
Assume Trump wins the election.
Do you actually think the current crooks will allow him to be inaugurated?
They would justify this by “acting to save democracy.” Or to keep a felon from the Presidency.
I don’t see continuing collapse. I see war.
Yes. I do think they will. They don’t have enough army or police otherwise.
I’d like to think that if the current crooks were smart enough, they’d get someone as his VP they could “work with” and Trump has a very coincidental illness or something that means he’s no longer a problem and the VP is someone they can “work with.”
The problem is that these people are idiots (that’s why they’re crooks) and they will screw everything up by the numbers.
What is up with Kristi Noem? Now she’s written about shooting her dog dead (and not an Ol’ Yeller scenario). Between that and the weird endorsements she’s been doing it’s as if she’s being blackmailed to disgrace herself.
I went and read the comments at Instapundit. There’s general agreement that that dog did need to be shot (it killed a neighbor’s chickens and attacked its owner, that is, Noem herself), but that she was politically stupid for writing that the “hated” the dog. She should have phrased it as a regrettable but necessary decision because that dog was going to grow up to be a dangerous animal, and she wouldn’t have lost any votes (from anyone who was even considering voting for her, at least). But writing that she “hated” the dog makes it much, much easier for the media to spin it in a way that the uninformed voter would buy.
Apparently she added that she then shot a goat, but didn’t finish it off with one shot and had to back and get more ammo.
I think she wanted to come across as a tough-minded woman who can make difficult choices, but that was the wrong way to do it. Was her ghostwriter an incompetent, or is she just that tone-deaf?
Blink, blink. Um, yeah. If you’re going to shoot at an animal, you should make sure you have enough ammo to finish it off if your first shot doesn’t kill it. If it’s a self-defense situation, then you’re in serious trouble if you don’t. If it’s a hunting or putting the animal down situation, then you shouldn’t leave the animal in pain due to your inability to plan ahead.
There’s a third option, unlikely but possible: that her ghostwriter was competent, and truly to subtly sabotage her.
Meant to write “trying” rather than “truly” in my last sentence; hopefully it was clear anyway,
If they were going to do that Pence would have been perfect.
Trump is likely to pick a Veep who scares the Left more than Trump, as “unfortunate event” insurance.
We can only hope. We can only hope.
Dunno about VP, but I’d like to see Marsha Blackburn replace Vichy Mitchy as Senate Republican leader.
Or Ted Cruz, or Mike Lee.
Now I’m wondering if Waffle House has 24/7 service.
Think craft stores. Ten years ago you had Hancock (I think; maybe they’d already gone under), Michael’s, JoAnns, Hobby Lobby, plus local yarn shop. Now Hancock is gone, JoAnns is under bankruptcy protection. That surprises me, because I figured Michaels would go under first: they’re much more likely to have vacant shelves and a general air of messiness. Probably Hobby Lobby is in the best shape and even there they seem to be edging toward becoming more a home decor shop (or possibly just adding home decor to the rest of their inventory).
The larger commercial yarn manufacturers seem to be cutting brands and variety. There are still local yarn shops and some of them are teaming up with indie dyers. There’s beautiful yarn available, if you can pay the premium. So there’s an element of, “rich person’s hobby,” entering the mix.
I can pay the premium but I don’t like to. I’ve begun stockpiling mass-market yarns I can use for charitable projects, because I can’t count on the yarn being available in six months.
So yes, a slow, gradual decline.
Haunt St Vinny’s, Goodwill, and other second hand shops. Paternal grandmother had skeins of yarn stashed in dressers, boxes, and well, everywhere. We took those, as well as all the fabric she was keeping for patch quilts (the old fashion kind), down to St Vinny. (Hubby took one look at all that was being pulled out. One word. “No!” 😉😂😒😉😂😒 Actually, for reasons, I was not tempted.)
Something went sideways for the downtown thrift shop. It was associated with the Gospel Mission and had a good selection (bought a little, donated a bunch, including a couple of nice bicycles), but it was sitting closed for months, and finally vacated.
The best thrift shop is associated with the big hospice organization. I got a decent walker from them before I had bunion surgery, and started to use it when I wrecked my knee (disconnected the quadriceps) a couple years later. (It didn’t survive the first time I fell by putting weight on the braced leg. Too much slack and gravity won.) They took over a long defunct home improvement store (medium box format, between Depot and the big independent, they didn’t stand a chance), and now took over a shoe store that died. (Summer of Recovery for the loss. Only place that sold SAS and Redwing locally. Arggh.)
Mother-in-law did charity knitting. I got free range of her patterns and yarn stash. Most of it was mill ends and went to the senior center, but I took some and made Christmas presents.
I have very uneven luck with thrift stores. I’m more likely to donate yarn I’ve realized doesn’t work for me than find somthing I like.
We did a largish buy of drapery fabric (valences for 11 windows) some time after late 2003, but according to my e-register, we haven’t bought anything from Hancock since January 2008. They were west of the Cascades, but that location is another business, now. Bing Streetview says it’s a Dollar Tree for the while. Not sure if that’ll last.
$SPOUSE knits various things, and likes the Caron 1-pound skein for things like baby blankets. Not sure of the vintage, (she has a goooooood stock of yarn), but the last blanket entailed some lousy yarn from them. Weak spots where the line got starved in the spinning.
An article on Zerohedge said that JoAnn had accumulated a boatload of debt, and that the falloff in business post-Covid-lockdowns hurt them badly. We used to get $100 gift cards (Kroger gas points FTW) for projects; charity, nightgowns, gifts and such, but $SPOUSE is afraid we’d get holding the bag if/when they go under.
The last time I was in there as Designated Shopper, they were still staffing the place with two employees; one mostly on the register, one floating. Gotta admit, the satanic tats on the guy doing checkout gave me a bit of a pause.
Michaels is present in F-Falls, but the yarn selection is meh. (If you like Lion, OK. Otherwise, not much.) The local indy yarn/weaving shop went under in one of the Summers of Recovery. Didn’t help that they were downtown, and the word was that the landlords were being pretty bad about business rents. Much better deals for storefronts away from downtown.
There’s is (was?) a really good yarn/weaving shop in Ashland, OR, but yeah, “rich person’s hobby” was pretty much the trend in the mid-Aughts, and it got out of our league within a few years.
I’m using Caron’s Tea Cakes to weave shawls. The wool in it makes it nicer than their acrylics. Meanwhile, Hershieser’s has a decent yarn selection and lots of sales. They were selling Tea Cakes yarn for $6.99 on sale, while Michael’s was 12.99. I’ll pay for shipping on that basis, and last order they had a promotion for $1 shipping for purchases over $25. Or maybe it was $50? Not hard to hit that limit, unfortunately.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Saw the Feds are planning to buy/close/sell First Republic Bank in Philly?
Republic First not First Republic, Republic First was small and its deposits got picked up by another bank so no FDIC payout. First Republic went down last year and was much bigger. JPMorgan scooped most of that up, I suspect we’ll see a lot more small banks go under before it’s all said and done. They’re mostly stuffed with commercial real estate, since they couldn’t really do anything else given the FRB’s free money to the big banks.
How come no one else saw commercial real estate imploding since the 2020 at least?
Lots of people saw it, lots of people’s salary and political power depends on not seeing it. who has it, how much they have, how salient to their business, all this is public information.
We’re not in China territory in this area, but it’s really bad. Just one of the many areas where it’s really bad.
Oh. That explains the blindness. Sometimes I’m naive.
Zerohedge was talking it up before 2020, but predicting 10 of the last two recessions hasn’t helped their reputation.
Given what we’ve been discussing about the reliability and….. flexibility of the numbers that declare “recessions”, by what reliable data are we declaring they “missed” it???
As memory serves, they were predicting recessions between 2017 and late 2019. Granted, the end of that era would have been appropriate, but the numbers (both official and by my lying eyes) from the early part said they were wrong.
I read them daily, but take their predictions with a grain of salt. Better than the pound I need from BLS and official stats…
we were in the beginning stages of a recession when the WuFlu hit … just sayin.
Yeah, that era was correct, but 2017&18? Nope.
I used to read another site, where the guy was predicting a Dow Jones crash in the late aughts/early teens (predicting 3-5000 when the DJIA was above 10K). Gave up on him. He was doing a lot of Fourth Turning work, but IMHO, other things are in play now.
I watched Roseanne’s podcast with Tom MacDonald yesterday. They talked quite a bit about everything being so completely upside down and crazy they don’t have words for it. Also wondering what is coming next, and wondering what to do. There’s a general feeling of “something is off,” like a wheel out of true, you can just feel it.
And don’t get me started on the job market.. What everyone says here is quite true, and it’s getting worse. If you’re over 50 your company wants to fire you as soon as they can.
Yeah, it’s gonna get worse.
I have a part-time job, and I’m lucky to have that; keeps my half of the rent and groceries paid, if not much more. I often get customers complaining about why aren’t there more of us working, “no one wants to work anymore!”
I’ve mentioned a few times that if upper management thinks the store’s not making enough money, they cut our hours. “We want to work. We have plenty of people who want to work. We’re not allowed to.”
…Still trying to make other things pay. Had to go and get more extensive allergy treatment; hopefully that’ll knock the autoimmune mess down enough that I have energy to write more!
There they go again. Mandate the impossible, and then when people fail to comply — because it’s, you know, impossible — impose draconian punishments. If they still fail to accomplish the impossible, well, that just means the punishments were not harsh enough. If the horse can’t jump over a hundred-foot wall, shoot the horse. Repeat until success, or you run out of horses. Never even consider that your plan might be flawed.
After all, they can always hire other people. Yeah.
Ah. and you got this without even going through being a traditionally published author? Well done.
*Wry G* I did research before I self-published, yes… and figured no tradpub was going to touch an actual religious monster-hunter with a 10-meter cattle prod, so. Went from there!
I’m noting one store that seems to have fairly high employment lately, and that’s Fred Meyer (Kroger affiliate as groceries & department store). In the Obama years, they had a hard cap of 29 hours per week to avoid having to pay benefits, and it looks like turnover is high. Many of the longer term checkers have bailed or gone to other positions in the store.
I’m seeing two things I find curious about them. 1) Stocking seems to be happening during daytime hours, when it used to be done at night. 2) A lot of people are doing the “we’ll shop for you” rounds in the store. It’s getting fairly heavy promotion, but it’s really taking off. The “we’ll shop” staff seems to be the youngest of the bunch, so this might be the entry/gateway job for Fred’s.
Our neighbors are saying they do that at Walmart now; considering that’s a store that sets off red flags, both inside and in the parking lot, I avoid it as much as possible.
Other stores seem to be shorter on staffing, though Home Desperate is fairly good, though some departments (electric supplies in particular) are light. Both of the regional farm & ranch stores are a bit light on staffing. They tend to have a different focus (one more urban garden, the other hunt&fish&firearms). Both could use more people (he said wistfully.)
Our local Kroger (Fred Meyers) are (we have 3, see it at the one on Division, and SIL saw it at the one on W 11th, no reason why Springfield won’t be any different) also attracting a lot of won’t work more than the hours at a pay that will keep me on assistant benefits. (Do not know what those are.) Drove SIL nuts (she’s on the senor plan, working at 70). Not working there now, she quit. Went to temporary work part time (4 days/week, 30 hours, work 6 months, off two months, repeat) for Hult Center downtown. BIL would be too, but he’s in a phase of “take my tools and go home” snit (he’s 77). Mechanic. Has everything, that he can work on (no modern equipment), in shape at home. Was working tinkering for small mechanical fix it shop. One employee was being irritating, boss wouldn’t back him, so he quit on the spot, packed up his tools, and went home. (Equivalent of a young child tossing the game board because losing.) At 70+, he doesn’t feel like he needs to be nice (if he ever did).
Their problem is she has to be here to take care of her mother who is 93. Her brothers can’t (not won’t, can’t). Not 24/7 care. Just there to make sure mom is fed, and be around if medical emergency. That is what triggered the permanent stay home. They were just using the house as a base, snow birding, and doing the roving camp host gigs in the north. Mom fell and broke her hip one early spring (before they were due back) and laid out on the path beyond the fence for more than a few hours (not alone the deaf Papilion was with her). SIL works because she has to get away from the house. As long as the hours do not interfere with her getting mom breakfast, and being there to fix dinner and make sure she eats it. BIL avoids his inlaws by puttering in the back where there are 3 large sheds (including where he has all the reloading gear setup, which we’ve assisted with by providing lots of brass and preferred powder when we find some, and got back an ammo box of product, which won’t fit in the small pond we keep having canoe accidents on), and 5th wheel (where they live).
It’s hitting the convention dealer circuit. Last year, the last three conventions were weak. Normally, the first two conventions of the year are strong, and let us get ahead on the year. This year the first one turned a profit, but was below expectations, and the second broke even. We also had a con lose money that’s never failed to make us money in the past — so bad that we decided to drop the other convention by that promoter, so there will be no trip to Tampa this year.
I’d been hoping that our summer and fall conventions will see an improvement, but I’m going to be very careful in restocking (and not send in the orders until closer to the events, Just In Case), and we’ll probably continue to do a lot of clearancing of old merchandise. At least all of our conventions this year are here in the Midwest, and in smaller cities (Grand Rapids MI, Davenport IA, etc). The Kansas City show is still not a definite (we got waitlisted on two small but solid shows this year, which hurts us almost as much as the loss on the big show).
We have one show in November (Grand Rapids Comic Con in DeVos Place), but it’s the second weekend after the election, so there’ll be a week to see how things are shaking out. And it’s close enough that, as long as we keep a nearly full tank of fuel, we could get back home on one tank.
To be honest, when I was planning for this year, I was focusing on staying productive in a lockdown, so I wouldn’t waste the year like I did 2020. I’ve been astonished that we’ve actually had a convention season, and part of me keeps waiting for everything to shut down. So I’m actually having more trouble staying productive while being on the road — and now getting back to my winter levels of productivity while I have several weeks off the con circuit.
I fall into a lot of the employment categories mentioned above: mid-fifties, laid off twice last year, started a new job after a three month search which required a relocation halfway across the country taking a position that, at least on paper, I am almost overqualified for, for less money than I was making at my last job. I consider myself one of the lucky ones; I have friends that have been laid off for almost a year without being able to land a position.
All good economic news to the contrary, it is a bit scary out here. We were able to make our way through the last layoff with savings, my wife’s job, unemployment, and a part-time job, but now we have to rebuild our savings in an era of increasing prices. It is a long realization of settling for things.
I am seeing the same idea of living with less options amongst many of my peer group that I am in touch with. There is little sense that things are going to get better; it is more a sense of managing the decline in the most graceful way possible.
My biggest fear at the moment is that I will get laid off again – now halfway across the country, locked into a lease and with minimal industry in the local area. What follows on with that is the worry that I would fall into the category of those that would not find another job, at least one in my industry.
To the point of declining cities and towns and a reduction in choices – yes, I have seen in three different states within the last four months. I can only assume the volume from Our Political And Social Betters (OPASB) will become even louder and more high pitched as they tell us how good things are and how stupid we are for not seeing it.
Understand what you are going through. Trust me. I couldn’t move. Even where hubby had been transferred there was no work. Not in late 2002 through early 2004. Not now unless it is 100% remote work. (Commuting from Randle WA to anywhere with computer jobs is not doable, period.) Even remote work would be iffy. Area internet isn’t particularly stable. How would Starlink be with the winter snow, and narrow valleys, do? IDK. Housing wasn’t just challenging, it was impossible. There is a reason why hubby ended up living in our 28′ trailer (sold the minute he came home permanently, after being transferred back to home). At my level, even moving, we couldn’t afford to have an rental, let alone a home, in the larger tech areas like San Fransisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, or Seattle, let alone New York, etc. I wouldn’t command the salary and hubby wouldn’t be working. Even Portland would have been challenging. (Though when I first made the career change, Portland market was what I was looking at. Commuting from Longview. Found out how not so good of an idea that was quickly. Luckily hubby got transferred out of Longview to Eugene.)
dep729 – This was not necessarily my ideal location, but it was the one that offered me a job. My previous jobs were in another location that was not industry strong (and thus, my inability to find a local job in a timely manner, if at all). For my industry, it tends to be in urban hubs like San Diego, The Bay Area, San Francisco, Research Triangle, Boston, New Jersey – for the most part, very expensive urban areas that I could never afford to get a house in. There are also effectively one-offs, but then one runs risk of being isolated if the job fails (which has also happened to friends of mine).
We are fortunate in that although I have to move, we can keep our home – our daughters are living there going to college and we could not afford an apartment. Also, we have the possibility of a friend of my daughter moving in, so we could end up effectively revenue neutral there.
It does make planning for the future difficult though. At best I can keep a job here to get me to a point that I could look at slightly scaling back the career, but I do not think this is where I want to end my days. At worst, things go poorly and I am stuck very far away from home trying to figure out options.
Understand. In 1979 we were both hired on to do the same job hubby did for 35 years. When we started the company had 279 employees doing that same job. Difference was the number of years employed and whether certified for west and east side, or just one. A job only done in the PNW, mostly Cascades and west, some Alaska, Idaho, limited east Oregon and Washington, some into northern California. In 1982, they had 179 employees. 100 of us lost our jobs. By the time hubby retired, they were bouncing between 60 to 80 employees. One of 4 outfits, not counting private timber company employees doing the same job, usually verifying the work done on their company timber. Not only limited geographically, not work done in big cities. There is no other places where he and I both have jobs. At least until recently. Now I could remote.
Understand about the house too. At least you have family staying in it. Sounds like you might go back when you are done working. We moved out of Longview in ’85, house didn’t sell until ’89. We knew we weren’t going to be going back. We rented it out. Didn’t turn it over to a company at first. Best decision we did was to turn it over to one. Made some money, on paper, all said and done. Did not make money selling, but we did break even.
Given those areas, I am guessing biotechnology, either devices or pharma.
The moment it all blows up is when the NYC Soviet show trial and rigged jury convict Trump for non-crimes and the Democratic Party partisan judge orders Trump to be immediately jailed without secret service protection, which will result in either the cops and secret service fighting the court guards to prevent it, or Trump being jailed and murdered before an appellate court can order his release.
It is obvious the entire point of these show trials, besides trying to slander the political opposition, is to facilitate the outright physical removal of that opposition, just like every banana republic/dictatorship/Marxist state does. They and their media arm even openly cry out “will no-one rid me of this troublesome man”.
Anyone who doesn’t believe that this is what they seek to do hasn’t been paying attention.
Off-topic (though I could stretch a point to make it on-topic) but very funny. My wife found an online link to a recipe for “Seis leches cake”. It was in a tweet whose comment was, “SEIS leches? en esta economia?”
😀
But it gets better. There was a followup tweet, which I have reproduced verbatim below (I don’t have a link to the original tweet, just an image, so I’m transcribing it exactly as it appears):
If you don’t get that immediately, search for “spiders Georg” (make sure you don’t spell it George, it’s Georg in the original meme) and you’ll get it.
The sad thing is, that list describes Detroit for longer than I’ve been alive. Fifty-plus years, Detroit has been a third-world wasteland that’s always Just One Year away from becoming the global metropolis it once was.
Just an aside: the folks over at The Unauthorized History of the Pacific War have a nice turn on the phrase: “when the defecation hit the ventilation”. (Good Yewtoob channel, BTW. Professional historians, retired naval commander.)
In the news: train wreck in New Mexico yesterday, fire, evacuations, major highways closed. Where is Pothole Pete? Isn’t the Transportation Secretary supposed to deal with such incidents?
Gee, it’s almost like the Department Of Transportation is a useless boondoggle…
Maybe the Biden* Regime did us all a favor by appointing those incompetent moochers, proving that we don’t need about 90% of the federal government.